Eduard Grebe

Performance of the Bio-Rad Geenius HIV1/2 Supplemental Assay in Detecting "Recent" HIV Infection and Calculating Population Incidence.

Objective:HIV seroconversion biomarkers are being used in cross-sectional studies for HIV incidence estimation. Bio-Rad Geenius HIV-1/2 Supplemental Assay is an immunochromatographic single-use assay that measures antibodies (Ab) against multiple HIV-1/2 antigens. The objective of this study was to determine whether the Geenius assay could additionally be used for recency estimation. Design:This assay was developed for HIV-1/2 confirmation; however, quantitative data acquired give information on increasing concentration and diversity of antibody responses over time during seroconversion. A quantitative threshold of recent HIV infection was proposed to determine “recent” or “nonrecent” HIV infection; performance using this cutoff was evaluated. Methods:We tested 2500 highly characterized specimens from research subjects in the United States, Brazil, and Africa with well-defined durations of HIV infection. Regression and frequency estimation were used to estimate assay properties relevant to HIV incidence measurement: mean duration of recent infection (MDRI), false-recent rate, and assay reproducibility and robustness. Results:Using the manufacturers proposed cutoff index of 1.5 to identify “recent” infection, the assay has an estimated false-recent rate of 4.1% (95% CI: 2.2 to 7.0) and MDRI of 179 days (155 to 201) in specimens from treatment-naive subjects, presenting performance challenges similar to other incidence assays. Lower index cutoffs associated with lower MDRI gave a lower rate of false-recent results. Conclusions:These data suggest that with additional interpretive analysis of the band intensities using an algorithm and cutoff, the Geenius HIV-1/2 Supplemental Assay can be used to identify recent HIV infection in addition to confirming the presence of HIV-1 and HIV-2 antibodies.

Moving towards a reliable HIV incidence test - current status, resources available, future directions and challenges ahead.

In 2011 the Incidence Assay Critical Path Working Group reviewed the current state of HIV incidence assays and helped to determine a critical path to the introduction of an HIV incidence assay. At that time the Consortium for Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA) was formed to spur progress and raise standards among assay developers, scientists and laboratories involved in HIV incidence measurement and to structure and conduct a direct independent comparative evaluation of the performance of 10 existing HIV incidence assays, to be considered singly and in combinations as recent infection test algorithms. In this paper we report on a new framework for HIV incidence assay evaluation that has emerged from this effort over the past 5 years, which includes a preliminary target product profile for an incidence assay, a consensus around key performance metrics along with analytical tools and deployment of a standardized approach for incidence assay evaluation. The specimen panels for this evaluation have been collected in large volumes, characterized using a novel approach for infection dating rules and assembled into panels designed to assess the impact of important sources of measurement error with incidence assays such as viral subtype, elite host control of viraemia and antiretroviral treatment. We present the specific rationale for several of these innovations, and discuss important resources for assay developers and researchers that have recently become available. Finally, we summarize the key remaining steps on the path to development and implementation of reliable assays for monitoring HIV incidence at a population level.

Computational analysis of antibody dynamics identifies recent HIV-1 infection.

Accurate HIV-1 incidence estimation is critical to the success of HIV-1 prevention strategies. Current assays are limited by high false recent rates (FRRs) in certain populations and a short mean duration of recent infection (MDRI). Dynamic early HIV-1 antibody response kinetics were harnessed to identify biomarkers for improved incidence assays. We conducted retrospective analyses on circulating antibodies from known recent and longstanding infections and evaluated binding and avidity measurements of Env and non-Env antigens and multiple antibody forms (i.e., IgG, IgA, IgG3, IgG4, dIgA, and IgM) in a diverse panel of 164 HIV-1-infected participants (clades A, B, C). Discriminant function analysis identified an optimal set of measurements that were subsequently evaluated in a 324-specimen blinded biomarker validation panel. These biomarkers included clade C gp140 IgG3, transmitted/founder clade C gp140 IgG4 avidity, clade B gp140 IgG4 avidity, and gp41 immunodominant region IgG avidity. MDRI was estimated at 215 day or alternatively, 267 days. FRRs in untreated and treated subjects were 5.0% and 3.6%, respectively. Thus, computational analysis of dynamic HIV-1 antibody isotype and antigen interactions during infection enabled design of a promising HIV-1 recency assay for improved cross-sectional incidence estimation.

Development of antibody biomarkers of long term and recent dengue virus infections

Dengue virus (DENV) infections elicit antibody responses to the non-structural protein 1 (NS1) that are associated with protection against disease. However, the antibody isotypes and subclasses involved, and their kinetics have not been extensively studied. We characterized the antibody responses to DENV NS1 by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in a longitudinal cohort of 266 confirmed dengue cases in Recife, Northeast Brazil. Samples were collected during the febrile phase and up to over 3 years after onset of symptoms. The antibodies investigated [IgA, IgM, total IgG (all subclasses measured together) and each subclass (IgG2, IgG3 and IgG4) measured separately] had distinct kinetic profiles following primary or secondary DENV infections. Of interest, most of these antibodies were consistently detected greater than 6 months after onset of symptoms, except for IgG3. Anti-dengue NS1-specific IgG was consistently detected from the acute phase to beyond 3 years after symptom onset. In contrast, anti-dengue NS1-specific IgG3 was detected within the first week, peaked at week 2-3, and disappeared within 4-6 months after onset of symptoms. The mean duration of the IgG3 positive signal was 149 days (ranging from 126 to 172 days). In conclusion, anti-dengue NS1-specific IgG and IgG3 are potential biomarkers of long-term and recent (less than 6 months) DENV infections, respectively.

The Ambiguities of the ‘Partnership’ between Civil Society and the State in Uganda's AIDS Response During the 1990s and 2000s as Demonstrated in the Development of TASO

ABSTRACT This article critically investigates state–civil society relations in the Ugandan AIDS response by tracing the history of Ugandas ‘multisectoral’ and ‘partnership’ approaches, particularly as it pertains to The AIDS Support Organisation (TASO). It finds that the Ugandan governments reputation for good leadership on AIDS is more ambiguous than commonly supposed and that the much-vaunted ‘partnership’ approach has not enabled strong critical civil society voices to emerge or prevented the harmful impact of a socially conservative agenda. By the 1990s, TASO had become the most important provider of medical and psychosocial support services to HIV/AIDS patients, but was less effective in influencing policy or holding the state accountable (because the political context prevented a more activist stance). The effectiveness of civil society has been constrained by an authoritarian political culture and institutions that discourage vocal criticism. Despite these limitations, however, state–civil society partnership did contribute to the emergence of a relatively effective coalition for action against HIV/AIDS. Donors were essential in encouraging the emergence of this coalition.

Interpreting Diagnostic Histories into HIV Infection Time Estimates: Framework and Online Tool

It is frequently of epidemiological or clinical interest to estimate the date of HIV infection or timesince-infection of individuals. Yet, for more than 15 years, the only widely-referenced infection dating algorithm using diagnostic test results to estimate time-since-infection has been the ‘Fiebig staging’ system. This defines a number of stages of early HIV infection through various ‘standard’ combinations of contemporaneous discordant diagnostic results, using tests of different sensitivity. To develop a new, more nuanced, infection dating algorithm, we generalised the Fiebig approach to accommodate positive and negative diagnostic results generated on the same or different dates, and arbitrary current or future tests – as long as the test sensitivity is known. For this purpose, test sensitivity is conceptualised as the probability that a specimen will produce a positive result, expressed as a function of time since infection. This can be summarised as a median ‘diagnostic delay’ parameter (together with a measure of inter-subject variability). The present work outlines the analytical framework for infection date estimation using subject-level diagnostic testing histories, and data on test sensitivity. In the typical case, where there is a negative test result and a positive test result on different days, the formal expression of the likelihood function is an interval with a round-shouldered plateau. We also investigate the impact, on infection time estimates, of subject level correlation of results on different tests; finding that such correlation is largely innocuous even in the case of perfect correlation. Finally, we introduce here a publicly-available online HIV infection dating tool that implements this estimation method, bringing together 1) curatorship of HIV test performance data, and 2) infection date estimation functionality, to calculate plausible intervals within which infection likely became detectable for each individual. The midpoints of these intervals are interpreted as infection time ‘point estimates’ and referred to as Estimated Dates of Detectable Infection (EDDIs). This tool, available at https://tools.incidence-estimation.org/idt/, is readily updatable as test technology evolves, given the simple architecture of the system and its nature as an open source project.

Assessment of HIV transfusion transmission risk in South Africa: a 10-year analysis following implementation of individual donation nucleic acid amplification technology testing and donor demographics eligibility changes: IMPACT OF NAT ON HIV RESIDUAL RISK

In 1998 we estimated that 34/million infectious window period donations were entering the blood supply at the South African National Blood Service. Selective use of donations based on donor race‐ethnicity reduced this risk to 26/million donations but was deemed unethical. Consequently, in 2005 South African National Blood Service eliminated race‐ethnicity–based collection policies and implemented individual‐donation nucleic acid testing (ID‐NAT). We describe the change in donor base demographics, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) detection rates, and transfusion‐transmissible HIV risk.

Population-level HIV incidence estimates using a combination of synthetic cohort and recency biomarker approaches in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Introduction There is a notable absence of consensus on how to generate estimates of population-level incidence. Incidence is a considerably more sensitive indicator of epidemiological trends than prevalence, but is harder to estimate. We used a novel hybrid method to estimate HIV incidence by age and sex in a rural district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Methods Our novel method uses an ‘optimal weighting’ of estimates based on an implementation of a particular ‘synthetic cohort’ approach (interpreting the age/time structure of prevalence, in conjunction with estimates of excess mortality) and biomarkers of ‘recent infection’ (combining Lag-Avidity, Bio-Rad Avidity and viral load results to define recent infection, and adapting the method for age-specific incidence estimation). Data were obtained from a population-based cross-sectional HIV survey conducted in Mbongolwane and Eshowe health service areas in 2013. Results Using the combined method, we find that age-specific HIV incidence in females rose rapidly during adolescence, from 1.33 cases/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.98,1.67) at age 15 to a peak of 5.01/100PY (4.14,5.87) at age 23. In males, incidence was lower, 0.34/100PY (0.00-0.74) at age 15, and rose later, peaking at 3.86/100PY (2.52-5.20) at age 30. Susceptible population-weighted average incidence in females aged 15-29 was estimated at 3.84/100PY (3.36-4.40), in males aged 15-29 at 1.28/100PY (0.68-1.50) and in all individuals aged 15-29 at 2.55/100PY (2.09-2.76). Using the conventional recency biomarker approach, we estimated HIV incidence among females aged 15-29 at 2.99/100PY (1.79-4.36), among males aged 15-29 at 0.87/100PY (0.22-1.60) and among all individuals aged 15-59 at 1.66/100PY (1.13-2.27). Discussion HIV incidence was very high in women aged 15-30, peaking in the early 20s. Men had lower incidence, which peaked at age 30. The estimates obtained from the hybrid method are more informative than those produced by conventional analysis of biomarker data, and represents a more optimal use of available data than either the age-continuous biomarker or synthetic cohort methods alone. The method is mainly useful at younger ages, where excess mortality is low and uncertainty in the synthetic cohort estimates is reasonably small. Conclusion Application of this method to large-scale population-based HIV prevalence surveys is likely to result in improved incidence surveillance over methods currently in wide use. Reasonably accurate and precise age-specific estimates of incidence are important to target better prevention, diagnosis and care strategies.

Estimated hepatitis C prevalence and key population sizes in San Francisco: A foundation for elimination

Background Initiated in 2016, End Hep C SF is a comprehensive initiative to eliminate hepatitis C (HCV) infection in San Francisco. The introduction of direct-acting antivirals to treat and cure HCV provides an opportunity for elimination. To properly measure progress, an estimate of baseline HCV prevalence, and of the number of people in various subpopulations with active HCV infection, is required to target and measure the impact of interventions. Our analysis was designed to incorporate multiple relevant data sources and estimate HCV burden for the San Francisco population as a whole, including specific key populations at higher risk of infection. Methods Our estimates are based on triangulation of data found in case registries, medical records, observational studies, and published literature from 2010 through 2017. We examined subpopulations based on sex, age and/or HCV risk group. When multiple sources of data were available for subpopulation estimates, we calculated a weighted average using inverse variance weighting. Credible ranges (CRs) were derived from 95% confidence intervals of population size and prevalence estimates. Results We estimate that 21,758 residents of San Francisco are HCV seropositive (CR: 10,274–42,067), representing an overall seroprevalence of 2.5% (CR: 1.2%– 4.9%). Of these, 16,408 are estimated to be viremic (CR: 6,505–37,407), though this estimate includes treated cases; up to 12,257 of these (CR: 2,354–33,256) are people who are untreated and infectious. People who injected drugs in the last year represent 67.9% of viremic HCV infections. Conclusions We estimated approximately 7,400 (51%) more HCV seropositive cases than are included in San Francisco’s HCV surveillance case registry. Our estimate provides a useful baseline against which the impact of End Hep C SF can be measured.

Diagnostic, Infection Timing and Incidence Surveillance Applications of High Dynamic Range Chemiluminescent HIV Immuno-Assay Platforms

Background Custom staging assays, including the Sedia HIV-1 Limiting Antigen Avidity EIA (LAg) and avidity modifications of the Ortho VITROS anti-HIV-1+2 and Abbott ARCHITECT HIV Ag/Ab Combo assays, are used to identify ‘recent’ infections in clinical settings and for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation. However, the high dynamic range of chemiluminescent platforms allows differentiating recent and longstanding infection on signal intensity, and this raises the prospect of using unmodified diagnostic assays for infection timing and surveillance applications. Methods We tested a panel of 2,500 well-characterised specimens with estimable duration of HIV infection with the three assays and the unmodified ARCHITECT. Regression models were used to estimate mean durations of recent infection (MDRI), context-specific false-recent rates (FRR) and correlation between signal intensity and LAg measurements. A hypothetical epidemiological scenario was constructed to evaluate utility in surveillance applications. Results Over a range of MDRIs (reflecting recency discrimination thresholds), a diluted ARCHITECT-based RITA produced lower FRRs than the VITROS platform (FRR ≈ 0.5% and 1.5% respectively at MDRI of 200 days) and the unmodified diagnostic ARCHITECT produces incidence estimates with comparable precision to LAg (RSE ≈ 17.5% and 15% respectively at MDRI of 200 days). ARCHITECT S/CO measurements were highly correlated with LAg ODn measurements (r = 0.80) and values below 200 are strongly predictive of LAg recency and duration of infection less than one year. Conclusions Low quantitative measurements from the unmodified ARCHITECT obviate the need for additional recency testing and its use is feasible in clinical staging and incidence surveillance applications.