Eduardo Agosta

The 1976/77 Austral Summer Climate Transition Effects on the Atmospheric Circulation and Climate in Southern South America

Previous works suggest that more El Nino–like conditions can be expected over the South American (SA) climate and atmospheric circulation because of the similarity of the predominately warm conditions in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the central-equatorial Pacific after the 1976/77 summer with those of the SSTs during El Nino events. Here, the summer (October to March) low-level atmospheric circulation over southern SA is studied in order to determine the specific changes that can be related with the global climate transition 1976/77. The rotated principal component analysis is applied to the daily 850-hPa geopotential height fields from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis I for the periods before and after 1976/77. The second and third principal patterns reveal changes both in the order of explained variances and in some of their spatial features. They can be associated with an expansion of the subtropical South Atlantic anticyclone over SA and lower midlatitude cyclone activity after the 1976/77 summer. The latter is partly associated with the actual tendency toward the positive phase of the southern annular mode. The main patterns can even explain some changes in the observed precipitation over subtropical central-west Argentina as well as for other subtropical regions. Different inhomogeneity tests applied to the atmospheric circulation climatology support the changes. Results suggest that the atmospheric circulation change could be somewhat unique (not observed in the twentieth century) and, thus, it could not be thoroughly ascribed to the El Nino–like variability.

Central-West Argentina Summer Precipitation Variability and Atmospheric Teleconnections

AbstractThe interannual-to-multidecadal variability of central-west Argentina (CWA) summer (October–March) precipitation and associated tropospheric circulation are studied in the period 1900–2010. Precipitation shows significant quasi cycles with periods of about 2, 4–5, 6–8, and 16–22 yr. The quasi-bidecadal oscillation is significant from the early 1910s until the mid-1970s and is present in pressure time series over the southwestern South Atlantic. According to the lower-frequency spectral variation, a prolonged wet spell is observed from 1973 to the early 2000s. The precipitation variability shows a reversal trend since then. In that wet epoch, the regionally averaged precipitation has been increased about 24%. The lower-frequency spectral variation is attributed to the climate shift of 1976/77.From the early twentieth century until the mid-1970s, the precipitation variability is associated with barotropic quasi-stationary wave (QSW) propagation from the tropical southern Indian Ocean and the South P...

Regional Climate Variability Impacts on the Annual Grape Yield in Mendoza, Argentina

AbstractMendoza Province is the major Argentinian vitivinicultural region, and its grape production is fundamental for the national vintage. The 1979–2009 climate–annual grape yield relationships are analyzed, and total grape yield is shown to depend significantly on regional “summer” (October–March) precipitation. Precipitation negatively affects yields through plant disease and damage/destruction by hail. At interannual scales, summer regional precipitation variability can explains 25% of the yield variance. Summer precipitation modulates yield with a 6–8-yr period: wet (dry) summers can be associated with larger (smaller) grape damage/loss probability during the summer preceding the vintage, as well as lower (higher) grape yields in the subsequent annual campaign because of bud damage. With respect to monthly mean precipitation at Mendoza Observatory, wetter Novembers/Decembers can lead to lower yields. Hail during the summer of the previous harvest and during December could lower yields. Winter, late ...

Austral Spring Stratospheric and Tropospheric Circulation Interannual Variability

AbstractThe relationship between the October (spring) total ozone column (TOC) midlatitude zonal asymmetry over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and the stratospheric quasi-stationary wave 1 (QSW1) interannual phase variability is analyzed. Once contributions to the TOC from known global predictors, estimated with a multiregression model, are removed, the residual TOC interannual variability is observed to be dynamically coupled to the stratospheric QSW1 phase behavior. The stratospheric QSW1 interannual phase variability, when classified according to specifically designed indices, yields different circulation patterns in the troposphere and stratosphere. High (upper quartile) index values correspond to a westward rotation of the midlatitude ozone trough and the stratospheric QSW1 phase, while low (lower quartile) index values represent their eastward-rotated state. These values can be associated with statistically different tropospheric circulation patterns: a predominantly single poleward tropospheric jet s...