Eduardo Loría

The Balance of Payment Constraint to Mexico's Economic Growth 1950–1996

ABSTRACT The historical external restriction to Mexicos economic growth has notably intensified as a result of the last decades structural reforms. This article suggests that the initiation of economic recovery is not to be associated primarily with the achievement and preservation of macroeconomic equilibrium but with structural aspects of the economy that are related to more complex dynamics and causes, linked in the last instance to the manufacturing sector.

Sobrepeso e integración económica en México

La obesidad en Mexico y el mundo ha ido creciendo sistematicamente, al grado que se ha convertido en una pandemia con fuertes consecuencias en padecimientos muy graves de salud publica como hipertension, enfermedades cardiovasculares, diabetes y cancer, todo lo cual tiene fuertes impactos en las finanzas publicas y en el crecimiento economico. En Mexico, desde los anos noventa, la obesidad y el sobrepeso han crecido de manera exponencial, mucho mas que en Estados Unidos. A manera de hipotesis, sugerimos que la entrada en vigor del Tratado de Libre Comercio de America del Norte en 1994 no solo modifico la estructura del comercio y de los flujos de capital. Tambien gesto un cambio sustancial en los habitos de consumo de la poblacion, particularmente la infantil, que se manifesto en un incremento notable en el consumo de golosinas. Estos resultados emergen del analisis de la Encuesta Nacional Ingreso Gasto de los Hogares (ENIGH) para los anos 1992 y 1996

A SVEC Model to Forecast and Perform Structural Analysis (Shocks) for the Mexican Economy, 1985Q1–2014Q4

A structural vector error correction (SVEC) model was constructed as an information system that contains: US Industrial Output, the monetary aggregate M2, the Unemployment Rate, and the Real Exchange Rate (Mexico to the USA). The model fulfills all the correct specification tests, and proved to be structurally stable through some recursive tests. The model is based on four theoretical and empirical facts: (a) Okun’s Law, (b) the existence of real effects of monetary policy, (c) the dependency of the Mexican economy to US Industrial Output, and (d) a positive effect of the real exchange rate to GDP. The model has also been employed in quarterly forecast (2 or 3 years in advance) for the last 10 years.