Edward J. Dudewicz

Fitting Statistical Distributions to Data in Hurricane Modeling

Fitting probability distributions to hurricane related data is an essential ac tivity in hurricane planning, designing structures, and catastrophe modeling applications. The recent devastating hurricane seasons and the resultant debates over design cr it ria and computer models using analyses based on these fits motivate a closer examinat ion of this issue. The primary objective in this paper is to describe the background and applicati ons of historical hurricane data fitting, the operational aspects of which have dictat e adjustments to the standard methodology. The emphasis here is on the interaction between data quality and dynamics, the need for rapid but stable assessments of that data, and statistical fitting methodologies. Validation and applications are discusse d, along with an analysis of the return periods of damage in the New Orleans area.