Edwin J. Elton

Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect

T HE determination of marginal stockholder tax brackets is an important and unresolved issue in the economic literature. Marginal stockholder tax brackets play an important role in stock valuation models [ 1, 6, 14], in normative investment and dividend policy models [11, 16], and in descriptive capital allocation models [ 7, 8, 10, 12 ]. The purpose of this paper is to present and test a method of determining marginal stockholder tax brackets and to explore the implications of our findings for corporate investment policy, corporate dividend policy, and the assumption of market rationality. In the first section of this paper we expand upon the reasons for studying marginal stockholder tax brackets. In the next section we show how marginal stockholder tax brackets can be inferred from the ex-dividend behavior of common stock. In the third and fourth sections we compute marginal stockholder tax brackets and discuss their implications for capital theory.

The persistence of Risk-adjusted Mutual Fund Performance

The authors examine predictability for stock mutual funds using risk-adjusted returns. They find that past performance is predictive of future risk-adjusted performance. Applying modern portfolio theory techniques to past data improves selection and allows the authors to construct a portfolio of funds that significantly outperforms a rule based on past rank alone. In addition, they can form a combination of actively managed portfolios with the same risk as a portfolio of index funds but with higher mean return. The portfolios selected have small but statistically significant positive risk-adjusted returns during a period where mutual funds in general had negative risk-adjusted returns. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.

Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

This Paper uses intraday data from the interdealer government bond market to investigate the effects of scheduled macroeconomic announcements on prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. We find that 17 public news releases, as measured by the surprise in the announcced quantity, have a significant impact on the price of the following instruments: a three-month bill, a two-year note, a 10-year, anda 30-year bond. These effects vary significantly according to maturity. Public news can explain a substantial fraction of price volantility in the after math of announcements, and the adjustment to news generally occurs within one minute after the announcement. We document significant and persistent increases in volatility and trading volume after the announcements. Bidask spreads, on the other hand, widen at the timeof the announcements, but then revert to normal values after five to 15 minutes. The implications for yield curve modeling and for the microstructure of bond markets.

Presidential Address: Expected Return, Realized Return, and Asset Pricing Tests

Finance theory indicates that investor decisions are based on expected, rather than actual, returns. Nevertheless, nearly all research into asset-pricing models has been based on actual returns. The author points out that actual returns are not a reasonable proxy for expected returns. He develops an approach for estimating expected returns and applies it to the analysis of returns on Treasury securities. He also addresses implications for analyzing stock returns.

Modern Portfolio Theory, 1950 to Date

Portfolio theory is a well-developed paradigm. There are excellent textbooks on the subject. Of course, we are especially partial to our own

Tax and Liquidity Effects in Pricing Government Bonds

Daily data from intra-dealer government bond brokers is examined for tax and liquidity effects. Utilizing actual trade prices rather than dealer estimated quotes gives us a more accurate measure of market clearing prices. Daily trading volume is also available, which provides us with a robust measure of liquidity. We use two approaches, one of which is new, to create cash flow matching portfolios of similar securities and look for pricing discrepancies associated with liquidity or tax effects. We also look for evidence of tax and liquidity effects by including a liquidity term when fitting a cubic spine to the after-tax yield curve. We find evidence of tax timing options and liquidity effects. However, the effects are much smaller than previously reported and the effects of liquidity are primarily due to high volume bond with long maturities.

Professionally Managed, Publicly Traded Commodity Funds

Investment in professionally-managed, publicly-traded commodity funds has grown rapidly in recent years. This is the first comprehensive study of the performance of these funds. It is found that randomly selected funds offer neither an attractive alternative to bonds nor a profitable addition to a portfolio of stocks and bonds. Furthermore, past performance of these funds offers very little information about future performance. The findings may be explained by the large transactions costs incurred by these funds and their primary reliance on technical analysis. Copyright 1987 by the University of Chicago.

The Adequacy of Investment Choices Offered By 401K Plans

Defined-contribution plans represent a major organizational form for investors’ retirement savings. Today more than one third of all workers are enrolled in 401K plans. In a 401K plan, participants select assets from a set of choices designated by an employer. For over half of 401K-plan participants, retirement savings represent their sole financial asset. Yet to date there has been no study of the adequacy of the choices offered by 401K plans. This paper analyzes the adequacy and characteristics of the choices offered to 401K-plan participants for over 400 plans. We find that, for 62% of the plans, the types of choices offered are inadequate, and that over a 20-year period this makes a difference in terminal wealth of over 300%. We find that funds included in the plans are riskier than the general population of funds in the same categories. We study the characteristics of plans that are associated with adequate investment choices, including an analysis of the use of company stock, plan size, and the use of outside consultants. When we examine one category of investment choices, S&P 500 index funds, we find that the index funds chosen by 401K-plan administrators are on average inferior to the S&P 500 index funds selected by the aggregate of all investors.

Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

This paper examines newly-available intra-day data from the inter-dealer government bond market to investigate the effects of economic-news announcements on prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. The use of intra-day price data together with data on market expectations allows us to obtain new and different results relative to previous studies. We find a total of seventeen economic announcements to have a significant impact on the price of at least on

The Rationality of Asset Allocation Recommendations

The popular finance literature describes the asset allocation decision as one of the most important factors in determining investment performance. This article reviews the implications of modern portfolio theory for the asset allocation decision and then examinesthe recommendations of some leading financial experts to see if they are consistent with theory.