Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting

This paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in a decade-old democracy, Russia, finds strong evidence of cycles, and provides explanation for why previous literature often found weaker evidence. Using the comprehensive list of Russias regional elections and regional monthly panel data between 1996 and 2003, we find that: (1) budget cycle is very sizable and short-lived: large expansion and contraction in fiscal spending occur within two months of elections on both sides; (2) the magnitude of the cycle decreases with government transparency, level of regional democracy, and voter awareness; (3) cycle becomes smaller over time; (4) pre-electoral manipulation increases incumbents’ chances for re-election. The results confirm theoretical findings that maturity of democracy, transparency, and voter awareness are important in determining the scope for opportunistic cycles. The short length of the cycle explains underestimation of its size by previous literature because of low frequency data used.

Who are China's Entrepreneurs?

It has been increasingly recognized that entrepreneurship plays a crucial role in successful economies. The Schumpeterian approach to growth (Aghion and Howitt, 1997) advances the view that entrepreneurial dynamism is the key to innovation and growth. A growing body of policy work emphasizes the important role of entrepreneurs in economic development (World Bank, 2003). Yet, research on entrepreneurship in economics is rather limited. There are three distinct perspectives on entrepreneurship in social sciences. The first perspective focuses on the role of economic, political, and legal institutions in fostering or restricting entrepreneurship. Institutional problems are seen in credit constraints that make it impossible to borrow and set up businesses; insecurity of property rights that provides insufficient incentives for entrepreneurs; and regulatory burdens that make setting up new enterprises difficult. The second perspective focuses on the sociological variables shaping entrepreneurship. For example, sociologists study the role of values and social networks in promoting or discouraging entrepreneurial activities. Social networks may work through a variety of channels, such as family, friends, or ethnic groups. The third perspective emphasizes individual characteristics of entrepreneurs. Psychologists have studied the traits associated with entrepreneurship such as a personal need for achievement, belief in the effect of personal effort on outcomes, attitudes towards risk, and individual self-confidence. Although there are studies on each perspective, little work looks at each of these factors taking the other into account. This is precisely what we do in this paper, using a new data set of Chinese entrepreneurs and a matching sample of non-entrepreneurs with similar age, gender, and educational characteristics. The survey covers both entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs in order to understand how they differ in individual characteristics, family background, social networks, values and beliefs, and perceptions of the institutional environment. The data further allow us to separate Chinese entrepreneurs into two groups, by necessity and by opportunity, and to differentiate non-entrepreneurs in three groups, those who never thought to be entrepreneurs, those who thought but never became entrepreneurs, and those who became entrepreneurs but eventually failed. This is a richer data set than a previous survey in Russia.

Who Wants to Revise Privatization? The Complementarity of Market Skills and Institutions

Using survey data from 28 transition countries, we test for the complementarity and substitutability of market-relevant skills and institutions. We show that democracy and good governance complement market skills in transition economies. Under autocracy and weak governance institutions, there is no significant difference in support for revising privatization between high- and low-skilled respondents. As the level of democracy and the quality of governance increases, the difference in the level of support for revising privatization between the high and low skilled grows dramatically. This finding contributes to our understanding of microfoundations of the politics of economic reform.

Firms and Public Service Provision in Russia

This paper reports first results from a survey of 404 middle-sized and large manufacturing firms from 40 Russian regions in April-June 2003. We examine the extent of social service and infrastructure provision by the firms and the firms’ assessment of the quality of public infrastructure and the regulatory environment. Background information of ownership, investment, performance, competition, and finance decisions of the firms is also gathered. The data reveal that despite major divestments of social services during 1990s, a great majority of firms still provide at least some form of social services. For example, 56% of the firms have their own housing or support local housing, and 73% of the firms have recreation facilities or support employee’s recreation activities. While managers view the social service provision as non-essential and costly, many of the firms continue to provide these services, even to users other than their own workforce. The quality of public infrastructure is generally assessed as being good or satisfactory; the respondents were the least satisfied with the quality of roads. Over a half of the firms provide their own heat, but mainly due to technological reasons – although public service interruptions do occur – and 24% of the firms give support to the maintenance and construction of public road network. The regulatory burden the firms face continues to be severe. In more than half of the firms, for example, the general manager has to spend more than two weeks in negotiations about public infrastructure with the authorities. These descriptive results indicate that there is still a lot scope for improvement in the quality and quantity of public service provision in Russia. Enterprises are still engaged rather heavily in social service provision, road network would require improvements, and the easing of regulatory burden should continue. Addressing these questions is likely to be vital for the sustainability of investments and growth in Russia. The paper is part of the project “Infrastructure and Welfare Services in Russia: Enterprises as Beneficiaries and Service Providers” financed by the Academy of Finland (project number 200936), the World Bank, and Yrjo Jahnsson Foundation. The project has also received support from the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition.

What Do Russians Think about Transition

We use data from the 2006 round of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to describe perceptions of the Russian population about the transition process and the role of the state compared with that of free markets. We find that about one-half of the Russian population is disappointed with transition and a large majority is in favour of high state regulation and state provision of goods and services. High demand for government regulation and increased state intervention coexists with a low level of trust in government institutions and recognition of high and rising levels of corruption. The findings are consistent with the theory developed by Aghion et al. (2009). In an environment with poor social capital, private business imposes negative externalities on the society and society chooses to demand more state regulation and tolerate corruption to reduce these externalities. We also find that individual perceptions of social capital and corruption co-vary with the demand for regulation, as predicted by the theory.

Who Wants to Revise Privatization and Why? Evidence from 28 Post-Communist Countries

A 2006 survey of 28,000 individuals in 28 post-communist countries reveals overwhelming support for revising privatization, but most respondents prefer to leave firms in private hands. We examine who wants to revise privatization and why. Respondents with poor human capital and few assets support revising privatization due to a preference for state over private property. Economic hardships during transition increase support for revising privatization due to the perceived unfairness of privatization. The institutional environment has no impact on how human capital and asset ownership influence attitudes toward privatization, but does affect how economic hardships during transition shape these attitudes.

State Capture: From Yeltsin to Putin

In this short paper we attempt to assess the results of Putin’s centralization and anti-corruption measures on the overall level of state capture in the Russian regions as well as on the balance of power between different interest groups. We proceed by, first, describing the results of previous research on state capture in the Russia’s regions during Yeltsin in section 1 and, then, analyzing the changes in the nature and the level of state capture during Putin’s administration in section 2. Section 3 concludes.

Capture of Bankruptcy: Theory and Russian Evidence

Laws that work well in developed market economies may produce unexpected outcomes in a corrupt environment. The paper argues that the Russian legal system is impaired by the capture of regional arbitration courts and analyzes the consequences of this capture for functioning of bankruptcy institution in the late 1990s. A model of strategic interaction among main stakeholders generates the following results. First, governors and managers of large regional enterprises colluded to use bankruptcy procedure as a mechanism of expropriation of the federal government’s revenues and claims of outside investors. Second, the bankruptcy law did not put pressure on managers to restructure; instead, the law could have prevented restructuring even when managers wanted to do so. Empirical analysis substantiates the theoretical findings and shows that regional political factors were important in explaining implementation of the 1998 Russia’s bankruptcy law.

Entrepreneurship: First Results from Russia

We study the determinants of the decision to become an entrepreneur in 7 Russian cities. Using data on 400 entrepreneurs and 440 non-entrepreneurs, we find considerable variation in the proportion of entrepreneurs, ranging from 6% of adult population in Nizhny Novgorod, to 16% in Perm and 18% in Taganrog. We find evidence that social network effects play a large role in determining entrepreneurial behavior: those individuals whose relatives and childhood friends are entrepreneurs are more likely to be entrepreneurs. Individual characteristics including academic success and educational background, performance on a test of cognitive ability, personal confidence, greed, and willingness to take risks are also important determinants of entrepreneurship in Russia, echoing the claims of Schumpeter. Certain aspects of the institutional environment play a role, but are secondary to individual characteristics.

Attack When the World Is Not Watching? U.S. News and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Politicians may strategically time unpopular measures to coincide with newsworthy events that distract the media and the public. We test this hypothesis in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We find that Israeli attacks are more likely to occur when U.S. news on the following day are dominated by important predictable events. Strategic timing applies to attacks that bear risk of civilian casualties and are not too costly to postpone. Content analysis suggests that Israels strategy aims at minimizing next-day coverage, which is especially charged with negative emotional content. Palestinian attacks do not appear to be timed to U.S. news.