Ekrem Erdem

Stock market and economic growth nexus in emerging markets: cointegration and causality analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine the short- and long-run relationships between stock market performance and economic growth for six emerging countries (Malaysia, Turkey, Mexico, Korea, India, and Brazil). To this end, the bounds testing approach to cointegration and Granger and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests are conducted for quarterly data. The results imply that there is a close relationship between stock market performance and economic growth in the long-run and that stock market performance is an impetus for economic growth in the short-run. The key finding of this study is that the relationship between stock market performance and economic growth is sensitive to the size of stock market.

Exchange Rates and Turkish Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Trade with the EU Countries: Bilateral Trade Data Analysis

This study examines the role of exchange rate on Turkeys fresh fruits and vegetables bilateral trade balance with 14 trading partners in the European Union. Because dynamic effects of exchange rate changes on trade balances have been hypothesized as the J-curve effect, special attention is paid to investigate whether or not the J-curve hypothesis is observable. To this end, we apply the bounds testing cointegration approach to the trade balance model for the period of 1995:q1–2007:q2. Results support evidence of the J-curve effect in 2 cases in the short run. In the long run, the exchange rate has a positive impact on the trade balance in 7 out of 14 cases.

MALİ DİSİPLİN ÜZERİNDE POLİTİK FAKTÖRLERİN ETKİSİ: AZ GELİŞMİŞ VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERE YÖNELİK UYGULAMALI BİR ANALİZ

Ikinci dunya savasi sonrasi ekonomik kalkinma ve refah devleti amaclari dogrultusunda artan butce aciklari sonucunda, mali disiplindeki bozulma hem gelismis hem gelismekte olan ulkelerin cogunda kalici hale gelmistir. Benzer gelismislik duzeyine sahip ulkelerde kamu mali dengesinde gozlemlenen farklilasma sadece mali hedefler ve makroekonomik soklarla aciklanamamakta, bunlara ilave olarak, politik faktorlerin de etkili oldugu anlasilmaktadir. Buradan hareketle, calismanin amaci, az gelismis ve gelismekte olan ulkelerde politik faktorlerin kamu mali dengesi uzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesidir. Bu amac dogrultusunda 1985 - 2012 yillari arasinda 49 az gelismis ve gelismekte olan ulke icin politik faktorleri temsil eden 14 degiskenin kamu borc stoku uzerindeki etkisi panel GMM yontemi ile analiz edilmistir. Sonuclar yonetim bicimi, politik istikrar ile meclis ve hukumet yapisi seklinde gruplandirilabilecek politik faktorlerinden 11 tanesinin kamu borc stoku uzerinde anlamli etkisinin oldugunu gostermektedir.