Elaine Worzala

International Direct Real Estate Investment: A Review of the Literature:

This paper provides a critical review of research on international direct real estate investment issues. To date, no review article has explored the various findings of studies completed on the benefits of international real estate diversification. In the past 10 years, the quantity and variety of work have increased dramatically. The paper is organised by how investing in a real estate asset is analysed: in a mixed-asset portfolio context or a real-estate-only portfolio context. A fourth section focuses on research that has explored currency risk, one of the prevailing risks associated with international investing. The last section provides conclusions about the research and offers ideas for future research in this growing area of real estate investment.

Client Pressure in the Commercial Appraisal Industry: How Prevalent is it?

Documents evidence of a loss of independence in the commercial appraisal industry in the USA. Utilizes a survey methodology to elicit the reactions of commercial appraisers to controlled scenarios of client pressure. This methodology was borrowed from established behavioural research that tested independent auditors for related independence agency issues. Results indicate significant valuation effects related to the amount of business a client brings to the appraisal firm, but no significant effect related to the size of the client‐requested value adjustment, or to the interaction of the amount of client business and the size of the requested value adjustment. Suggests that changes in fee structures and institutional reforms may be necessary to resolve the loss of independence.

Overseas Property Investments

International property investments are being considered by many institutional investors as an alternative investment media. Although a new concept for many, some investors (particularly the British and Dutch) have historically held overseas property as part of their investment portfolios. Examines results from 43 international investors who completed a survey exploring the decision‐making process used by international property investors, including investment techniques; motivating factors and the major problems often associated with making overseas investments; and in particular the investors′ attitudes towards currency risk. With little research, investors operate in a vacuum –unaware of attitudes and strategies used by others. Responses detailed provide information not only on how this asset class is perceived by those who are actively holding overseas investments but also by numerous firms who are contemplating the asset class and those who have decided against overseas property investments.

High‐tech valuation: should artificial neural networks bypass the human valuer?

Compares the predictive performance of artificial neural networks to hedonic pricing models, a more traditional valuation tool. The results document similar predictive performance evidenced from both techniques, which contradicts some of the earlier studies which support a position of artificial neural network superiority. Demonstrates that at least 18 per cent of the “normal” property predictions and over 70 per cent of the “outlier” property predictions contained valuation errors greater than 15 per cent of the actual sales price. The combination of these substantial errors and the model‐optimization costs incurred motivate a message of caution before artificial neural networks are adopted by the real estate valuation and/or lending industries.

The role of international property in investment portfolios

The growth in global investment opportunities has seen increased interest in international property investment as an important element in a mixed‐asset portfolio and has generated key international property finance considerations. This survey of institutional investors in South‐East Asia examines the property investment and finance decision‐ making processes used in considering international property. Key issues to emerge from this survey are the desire for portfolio diversification as the primary motivating factor for international property investment and the high awareness of currency risk considerations. This high priority on the financial considerations of currency risk is in marked contrast to the findings of an earlier survey of UK/The Netherlands property investors.

E‐commerce and retail property in the UK and USA

Presents findings from separate research projects conducted in the UK and the USA on the impact of e‐commerce on retailers and retail property. Examines differences between UK and US retailers along several dimensions: Internet strategies, perceptions of the Internet, barriers to e‐commerce growth, and future space requirements. Overall, findings indicate that UK and US retailers have similar attitudes about e‐commerce. Specifically, retailers in both samples perceive little threat or impact from e‐commerce. Second, barriers to e‐commerce growth are similar for UK and US retailers and include fulfillment and security issues. Third, UK and US retailers indicate that their retail space needs will remain the same or increase in the short term, despite the threat of e‐commerce. Finally, both sets of retailers believe that entertainment is an important strategy if shopping centers are to remain viable.

Currency risk and international property investments

Incorporating exchange rate fluctuations into the analysis of an international investment substantially alters the expected risk and return characteristics of the investments. With fluctuating rates, the value of a successful investment property could be devastated when converted to the investor′s home currency. This risk should be recognized and incorporated into the investment decision but, as results show, the ultimate strategy may not be periodic adjustments which have been used by many researchers, nor trying to hedge fully as others have suggested, but rather to examine returns in home market currency and leave exchange rate exposure decisions to the currency portfolio managers. Explores the possibilities of mitigating currency risk through several hedging instruments – forward and futures contracts, options, back‐to‐back loans and currency swaps. Results from a survey of international investors are also summarized and comments provide substantial evidence that investors are unsophisticated in deali...

A new paradigm for real estate valuation

Purpose – The purpose of this exploratory paper is to examine the efficient market theories and to argue that a new paradigm or an expanded paradigm is needed for the valuation of real estate. This may actually not be a new paradigm but it may be necessary to go back in time to make the valuation models that are used more realistic and to try to include the realities that there are many diverse actors in the real estate marketplace and their actions are important and should not be assumed away. Behavior matters and the models for pricing real estate need to take this into account.Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines some of the emerging models in other disciplines and works to relate them to the real estate marketplace in general but, more importantly, to help to explain the most recent bust of the global real estate markets.Findings – The paper finds that there is a need to consider an alternative paradigm for the valuation of real estate and complexity theory as well as the adaptive system m...

Market participants’ reactions toward contaminated property in New Zealand and the USA

While numerous studies have been carried out in the US to determine the character and scope of the effects of contaminated, threatened or “stigmatized” properties on the terms and availability of debt financing, little appears in the published literature dealing with the attitudes, policies and requirements of equity investors. Hence, the extent of opposition from both institutional lenders and equity investors toward contaminated property is still uncertain. This paper summarises the results of parallel studies undertaken within New Zealand (NZ) and the USA to answer the question of how those who lend on, and invest in, property affected or impacted by contamination perceive the risks associated with this type of investment and evaluate its impacts. Of particular interest are the perceived effects of on‐site contamination on property investment and its financing.

Currency swaps as a hedging technique for an international real estate investment

Uses Monte Carlo simulation to demonstrate the benefits of employing a currency swap to hedge the exchange rate exposure in a single international real estate investment. The only cashflow exposed to the currency fluctuations is the appreciation associated with the investment. Shows that this hedging technique has some potential for protecting the investor from adverse currency fluctuations if an international real estate investment is made. However, promises to explore unresolved issues in future research. Demonstrates that some elements of exchange rate risk may be hedged, resulting in improved risk‐adjusted returns. Thus extends earlier research in international property investment and suggests that international real estate strategies based on diversification (as opposed to currency plays) may be more effective than has been argued in previous research.