Eleanor Jennings

Impact of naturally spawning captive-bred Atlantic salmon on wild populations: depressed recruitment and increased risk of climate-mediated extinction

The assessment report of the 4th International Panel on Climate Change confirms that global warming is strongly affecting biological systems and that 20–30% of species risk extinction from projected future increases in temperature. It is essential that any measures taken to conserve individual species and their constituent populations against climate-mediated declines are appropriate. The release of captive bred animals to augment wild populations is a widespread management strategy for many species but has proven controversial. Using a regression model based on a 37-year study of wild and sea ranched Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) spawning together in the wild, we show that the escape of captive bred animals into the wild can substantially depress recruitment and more specifically disrupt the capacity of natural populations to adapt to higher winter water temperatures associated with climate variability. We speculate the mechanisms underlying this seasonal response and suggest that an explanation based on bio-energetic processes with physiological responses synchronized by photoperiod is plausible. Furthermore, we predict, by running the model forward using projected future climate scenarios, that these cultured fish substantially increase the risk of extinction for the studied population within 20 generations. In contrast, we show that positive outcomes to climate change are possible if captive bred animals are prevented from breeding in the wild. Rather than imposing an additional genetic load on wild populations by releasing maladapted captive bred animals, we propose that conservation efforts should focus on optimizing conditions for adaptation to occur by reducing exploitation and protecting critical habitats. Our findings are likely to hold true for most poikilothermic species where captive breeding programmes are used in population management.

Impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading from a grassland catchment: Implications for future management

Dynamic modelling was used to quantify the impact of projected climate change, and potential changes in population and land use, on phosphorus (P) export from a sub-catchment in SW Ireland using the Generalised Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model. Overall the results indicated that the increase in annual total phosphorus loads attributable to climate change was greater than that from either population or land use change, and therefore that future climate variability will pose an increasingly significant threat to the successful long-term implementation of catchment management initiatives. The seasonal pattern in projected P export mirrored changes in streamflow, with higher rates between January and April and lower rates in summer. The potential reduction in export in summer was, however, negated when increases in population were included in simulations. A change in the slurry spreading period from that stipulated in national regulations to the months between April and September could potentially mitigate against future increases in dissolved P export in spring. The results indicate that projected changes in climate should be included when undertaking modelling exercises in support of decision making for catchment management plans.

The Impact of the Changing Climate on the Thermal Characteristics of Lakes

Meteorological forcing at the air-water interface is the main determinant of the heat balance of most lakes (Edinger et al., 1968; Sweers, 1976). Year-to-year changes in the weather therefore have a major effect on the thermal characteristics of lakes. However, lakes that differ with respect to their morphometry respond differently to these changes (Gorham, 1964), with deeper lakes integrating the effects of meteorological forcing over longer periods of time. Other important factors that can influence the thermal characteristics of lakes include hydraulic residence time, optical properties and landscape setting (e.g. Salonen et al., 1984; Fee et al., 1996; Livingstone et al., 1999). These factors modify the thermal responses of the lake to meteorological forcing (cf. Magnuson et al., 2004; Blenckner, 2005) and regulate the patterns of spatial coherence (Chapter 17) observed in the different regions (Livingstone, 1993; George et al., 2000; Livingstone and Dokulil, 2001; Jarvinen et al., 2002; Blenckner et al., 2004)

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high–frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

Abstract A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process-based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

Regional and Supra-Regional Coherence in Limnological Variables

Limnologists and water resources managers have traditionally perceived lakes as discrete geographical entities. This has resulted in a tendency for scientific lake studies to concentrate on lakes as individuals, with little connection either to each other or to large-scale driving forces. Since the 1990s, however, a shift in the prevailing paradigm has occurred, with lakes increasingly being seen as responding to regional, rather than local, driving forces. The seminal work on regional coherence in lake behaviour was that of Magnuson et al. (1990), who showed that many features of lakes within the same region respond coherently to drivers such as climate forcing and catchment processes. From this study it emerged that the degree of coherence among lakes is greatest for those properties most directly affected by climate forcing. Specifically, the physical properties of lakes tend to vary in a more coherent way than their chemical and biological properties (see also Kratz et al., 1998). Further overviews of the topics of coherence and climate-driven variability, focusing

Workshop Approach To Developing Objectives, Targets And Indicators For Use In Sea

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is the process through which the impacts of plans and programmes on the environment are assessed. Objectives, targets and indicators are the tools through which these environmental impacts can be measured. The same objectives, targets and indicators may be used for all planning levels but it is also necessary to identify additional plan specific ones. We used a workshop based approach to provide an interface between planners and environmental scientists and to give examples of objectives, targets and indicators for biodiversity, water, air and climatic factors, which could be used in SEA for national, regional and local plans. In addition, we highlight the need for careful consideration during the selection process of these variables which will result in a more rigorous and robust SEA. This is a challenging process but once completed will maximise resources and reduce the workload later in the SEA process.

Impacts of Climate on the Flux of Dissolved Organic Carbon from Catchments

Recent increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in surface waters across both Europe and North America have focused attention on the factors controlling the export of DOC compounds from catchments. Waters containing high concentrations of DOC generally have a characteristic brown colour and are associated with the presence of highly organic soils. Catchments dominated by these soils typically export between 10 and 300 kg DOC ha−1 year−1 (Billett et al., 2004; Laudon et al., 2004; Jonsson et al., 2006). A portion of this DOC is mineralised in streams and lakes to CO2, while the remainder is transported to the sea (Jonsson et al., 2006). Organic matter accumulates in soils when decomposition rates are restricted either by low temperatures or water-logged conditions. In Europe organic soils are found mainly in colder, wetter

Position of the Gulf Stream influences lake nitrate concentrations in SW Ireland

A positive relationship was observed between winter nitrate concentrations in two lakes in SW Ireland and the latitudinal position of the Gulf Stream in the previous spring. Weaker but statistically significant relationships were apparent between the Gulf Stream position and weather variables, as well as soil moisture levels, in the same year. Wind speed, cloud cover and precipitation in May and June were negatively related to the Gulf Stream position in April. In contrast, air temperature and sunshine hours in May and June and the magnitude of the soil moisture deficit in June were positively related. There was also a positive correlation between the magnitude of the early summer soil moisture deficit and lake nitrate concentrations in the following winter. This three way linkage implies that the concentration of winter nitrate in these lakes is influenced by a sequence of related factors that are initiated by the latitudinal position of the Gulf Stream. In this sequence the position of the Gulf Stream appears to influence early summer weather in SW Ireland which in turn dictates the extent of moisture deficit in catchment soils and, consequently, the degree of nitrate loss to surface waters in the autumn. This connection, between events in the Atlantic Ocean, weather systems in the North West Atlantic and processes in catchment soils in SW Ireland has implications for both the quality and quantity of biota in lakes and catchments in the region.

Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Dissolved Organic Carbon

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat soils has implications both for the ecology of receiving waters and for the quality and treatment costs of water used for human consumption. Fluxes of DOC from peat soils are also relevant in the context of the global carbon cycle. Chapter 12 in this volume has reviewed the evidence for the effects of different environmental factors on the decomposition of peat soils and the export of DOC, drawing on literature and long-term data acquired from a number of European sites. The conclusion from this and many other studies is that, although there may be other influences such as land management and recovery from acid deposition, climate factors are a major player in both the short-term variability and longer-term trends seen in measured DOC concentrations and fluxes. Given the importance of DOC and likely future changes in climate, it is timely and opportune to make use of our current understanding to project possible future DOC.

Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on the Supply of Phosphate-Phosphorus

The transfer of phosphorus from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems is a key route through which climate can influence aquatic ecosystems. A number of climatic factors interact in complex ways to regulate the transfer of phosphorus and modulate its ecological effects on downstream lakes and reservoirs. Processes influencing both the amount and timing of phosphorus export from terrestrial watersheds must be quantified before we can assess the direct and indirect effects of the weather on the supply and recycling of phosphorus. Simulation of the export of phosphorus from the terrestrial environment is complicated by the fact that it is difficult to describe seasonal and inter-annual variations by existing process-based and empirical models. These variations are also strongly influenced by the history of the weather and by the frequency of extreme weather events. For example, the effects of storm runoff on the export of phosphorus can be very sensitive to levels of soil saturation and soil moisture, which are in turn influenced by the past history of precipitation and evapotranspiration. Inclusion of effects such as these is impossible using simple empirical models and difficult using process based models when model parameterization changes in response to antecedent conditions.