Elena Strukova

The Economics of Air Pollution Health Risks in Russia: A Case Study of Volgograd

Abstract A combined health risk assessment, cost-effectiveness analysis, and benefit-cost analysis is undertaken for direct particulate emissions from 29 stationary source polluters in the city of Volgograd, Russia. Annual particulate-related mortality risks from these stationary sources are estimated to be substantial, with an estimate in the range of 960–2,667 additional deaths per year in this city of one million. The majority of these risks are attributed to two major facilities in the northern part of the city. For several emission reduction projects, the cost-per-life saved was estimated to be quite low. The total net benefits to the city of implementing five of the six identified projects, leading to roughly a 25% reduction in mortality risk, are estimated to be at least

Ancillary Benefits of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Transitional Economies

40 million in present value terms.

Application of a Pollution Fee System in Russia

Abstract The paper presents the results of an ancillary benefits study in Russia, including the health benefits of reducing conventional pollutants as well as the economic benefits of saving fuel achieved by controlling greenhouse gas emissions. We present illustrative examples of the ancillary benefits in the forestry sector. Our findings show that the benefits from conventional pollution reduction and savings in fuel are significant and institutional reforms are needed to capture them. The “aggregated” approach, using a crosscountry macroeconomic model, contains some uncertainties, but the assumptions required for our analysis did not compromise this study, which is the first of its kind for Russia.

An analysis of physical and monetary losses of environmental health and natural resources in India

This chapter analyzes the development of a new management system for environmental protection in Russia during the period of transition to a market economy. Under the former command-and-control (CAC) system the share of abatement investments increased, and emissions actually declined, but environmental problems were not resolved, and environmental quality standards were not achieved. The CAC system collapsed, together with the centralized system of national economic management, because it was based on budgetary resources. It was replaced by economic mechanisms, including a system of pollution fees. This chapter traces the development of the pollution fee system, and explains the reasons for its inefficiency. Although actual emissions have declined, the level of pollution per unit GNP has increased, and the share of environmental investments in GNP has fallen. The major reasons for the weaknesses of the system have been severe cuts in state funds, the low level of the fees charged, the inadequate fee collection system, and the overall lack of markets in Russia. However, the institutional foundations for an environmental management system have been laid, and the system is likely to become more effective as the market economy develops.

Air Pollution Costs in Ukraine

This study provides estimates of social and financial costs of environmental damage in India from three pollution damage categories: (i) urban air pollution; (ii) inadequate water supply, poor sanitation, and hygiene; and (iii) indoor air pollution. It also provides estimates based on three natural resource damage categories: (i) agricultural damage from soil salinity, water logging, and soil erosion; (ii) rangeland degradation; and (iii) deforestation. The estimates are based on a combination of Indian data from secondary sources and on the transfer of unit costs of pollution from a range of national and international studies. The study estimates the total cost of environmental degradation in India at about 3.75 trillion rupees (US

The Influence of Climate Change Considerations on Energy Policy: The Case of Russia

80 billion) annually, equivalent to 5.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, which is the reference year for most of the damage estimates. Of this total, outdoor air pollution accounts for 1.1 trillion rupees, followed by the cost of indoor air pollution at 0.9 trillion rupees, croplands degradation cost at 0.7 trillion rupees, inadequate water supply and sanitation cost at around at 0.5 trillion rupees, pasture degradation cost at 0.4 trillion rupees, and forest degradation cost at 0.1 trillion rupees.

Evaluation and Identification of Priority Air Pollutants for Environmental Management on the Basis of Risk Analysis in Russia

The paper presents estimation of the health losses from urban air pollution in Ukraine. The methodology developed by US EPA and adjusted in Russia for Eastern European transition countries was applied for health risk assessment. PM2.5 was identified as the major source of human health risk, based on experience from the Russian studies. In the absence of reliable computed concentrations of PM2.5, the study was based on monitoring data of total suspended particle (TSP) emissions in Ukraine. Additional cases of mortality and morbidity were calculated based on reporting data on TSP concentration that was recalculated into PM2.5. Then the concentration-response function was applied to estimate individual risk. Next, individual risk was applied to the population exposed to the concentration reported for each city included in the analysis (we selected most polluted cities). For each city we considered individual data on baseline mortality and morbidity and population structure. In total, air pollution related mortality represents about 6 percent of total mortality in Ukraine. In Russia the corresponding indicator totals about 4 percent. The relative mortality risk attributed to air pollution calculated per 100 000 population in both countries is about 55-59 cases. Since applied method is sensitive to the primary data uncertainties we conducted sensitivity analysis applying Monte-Carlo method. Economic damage related to mortality risk was estimated at about 4 percent of GDP. There was no relevant WTP study in Ukraine therefore we applied the benefit-transfer method in order to estimate VSL, since mortality attributed to air pollution is major component of health losses (about 94 percent). In order to compare and aggregate mortality and morbidity risks we recalculated them in DALY. Then morbidity represents about 30 percent of total air pollution health load. Data on baseline morbidity is less reliable than data on baseline mortality; therefore the morbidity risk estimates are more uncertain than mortality estimates. It is likely that morbidity risk is underestimated. Regardless of uncertainties mentioned above and some problems with reported data we can conclude that the mortality risk attributed to air pollution is significant. Therefore, costs of air pollution in Ukraine are sizable and in the nearest future may offset the economic growth. Recovery of the Ukrainian economy based on restoration of polluting industries may lead to stagnation since mortality and morbidity risks not only puts burden on the economy, but also reduce labor force.

Economics of the Kyoto Protocol for Russia

To those working on climate change it is obvious that energy policy should be influenced by climate change considerations. The question that this paper seeks to answer is, to what extent do they influence policy and what contribution can a careful analysis of the costs and benefits of climate change options have on the formulation of that policy. We seek to understand this by looking in some detail at energy policy formulation in Russia. To do so it is necessary to look at the whole set of issues that determine energy policy. These include energy security, macroeconomic and uncertainty factors, local environmental issues and social issues. The analysis has been carried out for a specific case – that of the RF, where energy policy is currently under formulation to 2010. Two options have been looked at: a “High Coal” option, where there would be a substantial change in fuel mix away from gas to coal; and a “High Gas” option where the current fuel mix is retained and the increase in demand is met from all sources in proportion to current use. The analysis shows that, at international prices for fuels, the “High Coal” option is attractive. However, when we include the potential decline of price for natural gas in the European market, the relative preference for this option drops dramatically but it still remains the preferred option. When, account is also taken of the carbon benefits of the High Gas option, using plausible values for carbon, the attraction of the High Coal option is further reduced but not altered. When finally account is taken of the health associated with the lower use of coal in the High Gas option, the preference can be reversed but it requires a critical value for the health benefits. This critical value – at around

Should Russia increase domestic prices for natural gas

3,000 for a life year lost -- is plausible for the RF, if anything the actual value is probably higher. What the analysis shows is the need for a careful evaluation of the different factors determining energy policy. Among these is climate change. It is not the critical factor but it can be an important one. Perhaps more important are the environmental benefits that go with the lower carbon High Gas options.

Russia at GHG Market

Since 1997, more than 30 health-risk analyses were conducted using Russian data sets. These studies demonstrated that air pollution is the most important environmental contributor toward morbidity and mortality risk in Russia, with 90% of the total human health risk coming from the criteria pollutants total suspended particulate (TSP), SO2, and NOx. This article contributes to the ongoing discussion of the magnitude of this health issue in Russia by providing an estimate of both the mortality rate attributed to airborne pollutants and the associated economic damages. The 90% confidence interval of mortality is 46,000–132,000, and the associated economic damages are between 2.6 and 6.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). The largest source of uncertainty in mortality is the concentration-response parameter, accounting for 50–60% of the total variability in the estimate. The point estimate of 87,000 implies that mortality due to airborne pollutants is threefold higher than reported due to tuberculosis, twofold due to transportation accidents, and about the same as that from suicide and homicide combined. By 2002 there was enough evidence regarding potential health hazard and air pollution exposure in Russia to start environmental management reform. In 2004 Russia officially adopted guidelines for health risk analysis associated with air pollution. The next step is to use this health-risk assessment approach as a lead for sensible reforms of the emissions-permit system and environmental finance.