Eleni Katragkou

Recent past and future patterns of the Etesian winds based on regional scale climate model simulations

The aim of this work is to investigate the recent past and future patterns of the Etesian winds, one of the most persistent localized wind systems in the world, which dominates the wind regime during warm period over the Aegean Sea and eastern Mediterranean. An objective classification method, the Two Step Cluster Analysis (TSCA), is applied on daily data from regional climate model simulations carried out with RegCM3 for the recent past (1961–1990) and future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) constrained at lateral boundaries either by ERA-40 reanalysis fields or the global circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5. Three distinct Etesian patterns are identified by TSCA with the location and strength of the anticyclonic action center dominating the differences among the patterns. In case of the first Etesian pattern there is a ridge located over western and central Europe while for the other two Etesian patterns the location of the ridge moves eastward indicating a strong anticyclonic center over the Balkans. The horizontal and vertical spatial structure of geopotential height and the vertical velocity indicates that in all three Etesian patterns the anticyclonic action center over central Europe or Balkan Peninsula cannot be considered as an extension of the Azores high. The future projections for the late 21st century under SRES A1B scenario indicate a strengthening of the Etesian winds associated with the strengthening of the anticyclonic action center, and the deepening of Asian thermal Low over eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore the future projections indicate a weakening of the subsidence over eastern Mediterranean which is rather controlled by the deepening of the south Asian thermal Low in line with the projected in future weakening of South Asian monsoon and Hadley cell circulations.

The efficiency of phenological shifts as an adaptive response against climate change: a case study of loggerhead sea turtles ( Caretta caretta ) in the Mediterranean

Phenological shifts are widely reported for different species as a response to climate change. Still, the efficiency of this mechanism is questioned because of the accelerated rate of change and the different change patterns of various climate parameters that may cause mismatches. Here, using loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) as model species, we examined whether phenological shifts could be an effective adaptive strategy over the critical period that determines reproductive output in the Mediterranean region. We compared the rate of temperature and precipitation change over the recent past (1971–2015) and future periods (2016–2060) along the 45 main nesting sites of the Mediterranean population, during the incubation period. Next, utilizing predictions of an earlier nesting season, we evaluated whether the timing of incubation will impact offspring survival on the Mediterranean population. To further assess species vulnerability, we investigated any potential relationship between hatching success and climate parameters at the largest Mediterranean nesting rookery (Zakynthos, Greece). We found that phenological changes would allow species to capture a thermal window similar to one they experience nowadays during the incubation period. Still, phenological shifts might be less adequate to follow precipitation changes, which however, were found to have a limited impact upon hatching success. Global adaptation management strategies should be directed towards (a) acquisition of long-term high-resolution temperature and precipitation series at nesting sites, (b) developing early warning systems to prevent negative impacts upon reproductive outputs, and (c) directly applying cooling of the nests when first altered climate signs are detected.