Eleni Rapsomaniki

Blood pressure and incidence of twelve cardiovascular diseases: lifetime risks, healthy life-years lost, and age-specific associations in 1·25 million people

Summary Background The associations of blood pressure with the different manifestations of incident cardiovascular disease in a contemporary population have not been compared. In this study, we aimed to analyse the associations of blood pressure with 12 different presentations of cardiovascular disease. Methods We used linked electronic health records from 1997 to 2010 in the CALIBER (CArdiovascular research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records) programme to assemble a cohort of 1·25 million patients, 30 years of age or older and initially free from cardiovascular disease, a fifth of whom received blood pressure-lowering treatments. We studied the heterogeneity in the age-specific associations of clinically measured blood pressure with 12 acute and chronic cardiovascular diseases, and estimated the lifetime risks (up to 95 years of age) and cardiovascular disease-free life-years lost adjusted for other risk factors at index ages 30, 60, and 80 years. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01164371. Findings During 5·2 years median follow-up, we recorded 83 098 initial cardiovascular disease presentations. In each age group, the lowest risk for cardiovascular disease was in people with systolic blood pressure of 90–114 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure of 60–74 mm Hg, with no evidence of a J-shaped increased risk at lower blood pressures. The effect of high blood pressure varied by cardiovascular disease endpoint, from strongly positive to no effect. Associations with high systolic blood pressure were strongest for intracerebral haemorrhage (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·32–1·58]), subarachnoid haemorrhage (1·43 [1·25–1·63]), and stable angina (1·41 [1·36–1·46]), and weakest for abdominal aortic aneurysm (1·08 [1·00–1·17]). Compared with diastolic blood pressure, raised systolic blood pressure had a greater effect on angina, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease, whereas raised diastolic blood pressure had a greater effect on abdominal aortic aneurysm than did raised systolic pressure. Pulse pressure associations were inverse for abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR per 10 mm Hg 0·91 [95% CI 0·86–0·98]) and strongest for peripheral arterial disease (1·23 [1·20–1·27]). People with hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or those receiving blood pressure-lowering drugs) had a lifetime risk of overall cardiovascular disease at 30 years of age of 63·3% (95% CI 62·9–63·8) compared with 46·1% (45·5–46·8) for those with normal blood pressure, and developed cardiovascular disease 5·0 years earlier (95% CI 4·8–5·2). Stable and unstable angina accounted for most (43%) of the cardiovascular disease-free years of life lost associated with hypertension from index age 30 years, whereas heart failure and stable angina accounted for the largest proportion (19% each) of years of life lost from index age 80 years. Interpretation The widely held assumptions that blood pressure has strong associations with the occurrence of all cardiovascular diseases across a wide age range, and that diastolic and systolic associations are concordant, are not supported by the findings of this high-resolution study. Despite modern treatments, the lifetime burden of hypertension is substantial. These findings emphasise the need for new blood pressure-lowering strategies, and will help to inform the design of randomised trials to assess them. Funding Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, and Wellcome Trust.

Type 2 diabetes and incidence of cardiovascular diseases: a cohort study in 1·9 million people

Summary Background The contemporary associations of type 2 diabetes with a wide range of incident cardiovascular diseases have not been compared. We aimed to study associations between type 2 diabetes and 12 initial manifestations of cardiovascular disease. Methods We used linked primary care, hospital admission, disease registry, and death certificate records from the CALIBER programme, which links data for people in England recorded in four electronic health data sources. We included people who were (or turned) 30 years or older between Jan 1, 1998, to March 25, 2010, who were free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. The primary endpoint was the first record of one of 12 cardiovascular presentations in any of the data sources. We compared cumulative incidence curves for the initial presentation of cardiovascular disease and used Cox models to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs). This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01804439). Findings Our cohort consisted of 1 921 260 individuals, of whom 1 887 062 (98·2%) did not have diabetes and 34 198 (1·8%) had type 2 diabetes. We observed 113 638 first presentations of cardiovascular disease during a median follow-up of 5·5 years (IQR 2·1–10·1). Of people with type 2 diabetes, 6137 (17·9%) had a first cardiovascular presentation, the most common of which were peripheral arterial disease (reported in 992 [16·2%] of 6137 patients) and heart failure (866 [14·1%] of 6137 patients). Type 2 diabetes was positively associated with peripheral arterial disease (adjusted HR 2·98 [95% CI 2·76–3·22]), ischaemic stroke (1·72 [1·52–1·95]), stable angina (1·62 [1·49–1·77]), heart failure (1·56 [1·45–1·69]), and non-fatal myocardial infarction (1·54 [1·42–1·67]), but was inversely associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (0·46 [0·35–0·59]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (0·48 [0·26–0.89]), and not associated with arrhythmia or sudden cardiac death (0·95 [0·76–1·19]). Interpretation Heart failure and peripheral arterial disease are the most common initial manifestations of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes. The differences between relative risks of different cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes have implications for clinical risk assessment and trial design. Funding Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, and Medical Research Council.

Heterogeneous associations between smoking and a wide range of initial presentations of cardiovascular disease in 1 937 360 people in England: lifetime risks and implications for risk prediction

Background It is not known how smoking affects the initial presentation of a wide range of chronic and acute cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), nor the extent to which associations are heterogeneous. We estimated the lifetime cumulative incidence of 12 CVD presentations, and examined associations with smoking and smoking cessation. Methods Cohort study of 1.93 million people aged ≥30years, with no history of CVD, in 1997–2010. Individuals were drawn from linked electronic health records in England, covering primary care, hospitalizations, myocardial infarction (MI) registry and cause-specific mortality (the CALIBER programme). Results During 11.6 million person-years of follow-up, 114 859 people had an initial non-fatal or fatal CVD presentation. By age 90 years, current vs never smokers’ lifetime risks varied from 0.4% vs 0.2% for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), to 8.9% vs 2.6% for peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Current smoking showed no association with cardiac arrest or sudden cardiac death [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91–1.19).The strength of association differed markedly according to disease type: stable angina (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.15),transient ischaemic attack (HR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.28-1.55), unstable angina (HR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.38–1.72), intracerebral haemorrhage (HR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.37–1.89), heart failure (HR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.47–1.79), ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.72–2.10), MI (HR = 2.32, 95% CI 2.20–2.45), SAH (HR = 2.70, 95% CI 2.27–3.21), PAD (HR = 5.16, 95% CI 4.80–5.54) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) (HR = 5.18, 95% CI 4.61–5.82). Population-attributable fractions were lower for women than men for unheralded coronary death, ischaemic stroke, PAD and AAA. Ten years after quitting smoking, the risks of PAD, AAA (in men) and unheralded coronary death remained increased (HR = 1.36, 1.47 and 2.74, respectively). Conclusions The heterogeneous associations of smoking with different CVD presentations suggests different underlying mechanisms and have important implications for research, clinical screening and risk prediction.

Socioeconomic Deprivation and the Incidence of 12 Cardiovascular Diseases in 1.9 Million Women and Men: Implications for Risk Prediction and Prevention

Background Recent experimental evidence suggests that socioeconomic characteristics of neighbourhoods influence cardiovascular health, but observational studies which examine deprivation across a wide range of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are lacking. Methods Record-linkage cohort study of 1.93 million people to examine the association between small-area socioeconomic deprivation and 12 CVDs. Health records covered primary care, hospital admissions, a myocardial infarction registry and cause-specific mortality in England (CALIBER). Patients were aged ≥30 years and were initially free of CVD. Cox proportional hazard models stratified by general practice were used. Findings During a median follow-up of 5.5 years 114,859 people had one of 12 initial CVD presentations. In women the hazards of all CVDs except abdominal aortic aneurysm increased linearly with higher small-area socioeconomic deprivation (adjusted HR for most vs. least deprived ranged from 1.05, 95%CI 0.83–1.32 for abdominal aortic aneurysm to 1.55, 95%CI 1.42–1.70 for heart failure; I2 = 81.9%, τ2 = 0.01). In men heterogeneity was higher (HR ranged from 0.89, 95%CI 0.75–1.06 for cardiac arrest to 1.85, 95%CI 1.67–2.04 for peripheral arterial disease; I2 = 96.0%, τ2 = 0.06) and no association was observed with stable angina, sudden cardiac death, subarachnoid haemorrhage, transient ischaemic attack and abdominal aortic aneurysm. Lifetime risk difference between least and most deprived quintiles was most marked for peripheral arterial disease in women (4.3% least deprived, 5.8% most deprived) and men (4.6% least deprived, 7.8% in most deprived); but it was small or negligible for sudden cardiac death, transient ischaemic attack, abdominal aortic aneurysm and ischaemic and intracerebral haemorrhage, in both women and men. Conclusions Associations of small-area socioeconomic deprivation with 12 types of CVDs were heterogeneous, and in men absent for several diseases. Findings suggest that policies to reduce deprivation may impact more strongly on heart failure and peripheral arterial disease, and might be more effective in women.

Association between clinically recorded alcohol consumption and initial presentation of 12 cardiovascular diseases: population based cohort study using linked health records

Abstract Objectives To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease at higher resolution by examining the initial lifetime presentation of 12 cardiac, cerebrovascular, abdominal, or peripheral vascular diseases among five categories of consumption. Design Population based cohort study of linked electronic health records covering primary care, hospital admissions, and mortality in 1997-2010 (median follow-up six years). Setting CALIBER (ClinicAl research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records). Participants 1 937 360 adults (51% women), aged ≥30 who were free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. Main outcome measures 12 common symptomatic manifestations of cardiovascular disease, including chronic stable angina, unstable angina, acute myocardial infarction, unheralded coronary heart disease death, heart failure, sudden coronary death/cardiac arrest, transient ischaemic attack, ischaemic stroke, intracerebral and subarachnoid haemorrhage, peripheral arterial disease, and abdominal aortic aneurysm. Results 114 859 individuals received an incident cardiovascular diagnosis during follow-up. Non-drinking was associated with an increased risk of unstable angina (hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 1.45), myocardial infarction (1.32, 1.24 to1.41), unheralded coronary death (1.56, 1.38 to 1.76), heart failure (1.24, 1.11 to 1.38), ischaemic stroke (1.12, 1.01 to 1.24), peripheral arterial disease (1.22, 1.13 to 1.32), and abdominal aortic aneurysm (1.32, 1.17 to 1.49) compared with moderate drinking (consumption within contemporaneous UK weekly/daily guidelines of 21/3 and 14/2 units for men and women, respectively). Heavy drinking (exceeding guidelines) conferred an increased risk of presenting with unheralded coronary death (1.21, 1.08 to 1.35), heart failure (1.22, 1.08 to 1.37), cardiac arrest (1.50, 1.26 to 1.77), transient ischaemic attack (1.11, 1.02 to 1.37), ischaemic stroke (1.33, 1.09 to 1.63), intracerebral haemorrhage (1.37, 1.16 to 1.62), and peripheral arterial disease (1.35; 1.23 to 1.48), but a lower risk of myocardial infarction (0.88, 0.79 to 1.00) or stable angina (0.93, 0.86 to 1.00). Conclusions Heterogeneous associations exist between level of alcohol consumption and the initial presentation of cardiovascular diseases. This has implications for counselling patients, public health communication, and clinical research, suggesting a more nuanced approach to the role of alcohol in prevention of cardiovascular disease is necessary. Registration clinicaltrails.gov (NCT01864031).

Prognostic models for stable coronary artery disease based on electronic health record cohort of 102 023 patients

Aims The population with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) is growing but validated models to guide their clinical management are lacking. We developed and validated prognostic models for all-cause mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary death in SCAD. Methods and results Models were developed in a linked electronic health records cohort of 102 023 SCAD patients from the CALIBER programme, with mean follow-up of 4.4 (SD 2.8) years during which 20 817 deaths and 8856 coronary outcomes were observed. The Kaplan–Meier 5-year risk was 20.6% (95% CI, 20.3, 20.9) for mortality and 9.7% (95% CI, 9.4, 9.9) for non-fatal MI or coronary death. The predictors in the models were age, sex, CAD diagnosis, deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, lipids, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, atrial fibrillation, stroke, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, cancer, depression, anxiety, heart rate, creatinine, white cell count, and haemoglobin. The models had good calibration and discrimination in internal (external) validation with C-index 0.811 (0.735) for all-cause mortality and 0.778 (0.718) for non-fatal MI or coronary death. Using these models to identify patients at high risk (defined by guidelines as 3% annual mortality) and support a management decision associated with hazard ratio 0.8 could save an additional 13–16 life years or 15–18 coronary event-free years per 1000 patients screened, compared with models with just age, sex, and deprivation. Conclusion These validated prognostic models could be used in clinical practice to support risk stratification as recommended in clinical guidelines.

Type 2 diabetes and incidence of a wide range of cardiovascular diseases: a cohort study in 1·9 million people.

BACKGROUND The contemporary associations of type 2 diabetes with a wide range of incident cardiovascular diseases have not been compared. Previous studies have focussed on myocardial infarction and stroke, and these conditions are the usual outcomes chosen in clinical trials in type 2 diabetes, but other diseases such as heart failure and angina are also major causes of morbidity in diabetes. We aimed to study associations between type 2 diabetes and 12 initial manifestations of cardiovascular disease. METHODS We used linked electronic health records from 1997 to 2010 in the CALIBER (cardiovascular research using linked bespoke studies and electronic health records) programme to investigate the absolute and relative risks associated with type 2 diabetes in a cohort of 1·92 million patients in England. We included patients aged 30 years and older who were free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01804439. FINDINGS We observed 113 638 first presentations of cardiovascular disease during a median follow-up of 5·5 years (IQR 2·1-10·1). 34 198 people had type 2 diabetes: 6137 experienced a first cardiovascular presentation, of which the most common were peripheral arterial disease (16·2%, n=992) and heart failure (14·1%, n=866). Type 2 diabetes was strongly positively associated with peripheral arterial disease (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio 2·98, 95% CI 2·76-3·22), ischaemic stroke (1·72, 1·52-1·95), stable angina (1·62, 1·49-1·77), heart failure (1·56, 1·45-1·69), and non-fatal myocardial infarction (1·54 1·42-1·67), but inversely associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (0·46, 0·35-0·59) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (0·48, 0·26-0·89). INTERPRETATION This study suggests that associations of type 2 diabetes vary with different incident cardiovascular diseases. These findings have implications for clinical risk assessment and choice of primary endpoint in trials on type 2 diabetes. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council.

Depression as a Risk Factor for the Initial Presentation of Twelve Cardiac, Cerebrovascular, and Peripheral Arterial Diseases: Data Linkage Study of 1.9 Million Women and Men

Background Depression is associated with coronary heart disease and stroke, but associations with a range of pathologically diverse cardiovascular diseases are not well understood. We examine the risk of 12 cardiovascular diseases according to depression status (history or new onset). Methods Cohort study of 1,937,360 adult men and women, free from cardiovascular disease at baseline, using linked UK electronic health records between 1997 and 2010. The exposures were new-onset depression (a new GP diagnosis of depression and/or prescription for antidepressants during a one-year baseline), and history of GP-diagnosed depression before baseline. The primary endpoint was initial presentation of 12 cardiovascular diseases after baseline. We used disease-specific Cox proportional hazards models with multiple imputation adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol). Results Over a median [IQR] 6.9 [2.1–10.5] years of follow-up, 18.9% had a history of depression and 94,432 incident cardiovascular events occurred. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, history of depression was associated with: stable angina (Hazard Ratio = 1.38, 95%CI 1.32–1.45), unstable angina (1.70, 1.60–1.82), myocardial infarction (1.21, 1.16–1.27), unheralded coronary death (1.23, 1.14–1.32), heart failure (1.18, 1.13–1.24), cardiac arrest (1.14, 1.03–1.26), transient ischemic attack (1.31, 1.25–1.38), ischemic stroke (1.26, 1.18–1.34), subarachnoid haemorrhage (1.17, 1.01–1.35), intracerebral haemorrhage (1.30, 1.17–1.45), peripheral arterial disease (1.24, 1.18–1.30), and abdominal aortic aneurysm (1.12,1.01–1.24). New onset depression developed in 2.9% of people, among whom 63,761 cardiovascular events occurred. New onset depression was similarly associated with each of the 12 diseases, with no evidence of stronger associations compared to history of depression. The strength of association between depression and these cardiovascular diseases did not differ between women and men. Conclusion Depression was prospectively associated with cardiac, cerebrovascular, and peripheral diseases, with no evidence of disease specificity. Further research is needed in understanding the specific pathophysiology of heart and vascular disease triggered by depression in healthy populations.

Using big data from health records from four countries to evaluate chronic disease outcomes: a study in 114 364 survivors of myocardial infarction

Abstract Aims To assess the international validity of using hospital record data to compare long-term outcomes in heart attack survivors. Methods and results We used samples of national, ongoing, unselected record sources to assess three outcomes: cause death; a composite of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and all-cause death; and hospitalized bleeding. Patients aged 65 years and older entered the study 1 year following the most recent discharge for acute MI in 2002–11 [n = 54 841 (Sweden), 53 909 (USA), 4653 (England), and 961 (France)]. Across each of the four countries, we found consistent associations with 12 baseline prognostic factors and each of the three outcomes. In each country, we observed high 3-year crude cumulative risks of all-cause death (from 19.6% [England] to 30.2% [USA]); the composite of MI, stroke, or death [from 26.0% (France) to 36.2% (USA)]; and hospitalized bleeding [from 3.1% (France) to 5.3% (USA)]. After adjustments for baseline risk factors, risks were similar across all countries [relative risks (RRs) compared with Sweden not statistically significant], but higher in the USA for all-cause death [RR USA vs. Sweden, 1.14 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.26)] and hospitalized bleeding [RR USA vs. Sweden, 1.54 (1.21–1.96)]. Conclusion The validity of using hospital record data is supported by the consistency of estimates across four countries of a high adjusted risk of death, further MI, and stroke in the chronic phase after MI. The possibility that adjusted risks of mortality and bleeding are higher in the USA warrants further study.

Prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy in stable coronary disease: comparative observational study of benefits and harms in unselected versus trial populations

Objective To estimate the potential magnitude in unselected patients of the benefits and harms of prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction seen in selected patients with high risk characteristics in trials. Design Observational population based cohort study. Setting PEGASUS-TIMI-54 trial population and CALIBER (ClinicAl research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records). Participants 7238 patients who survived a year or more after acute myocardial infarction. Interventions Prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction. Main outcome measures Recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease. Fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding. Results 1676/7238 (23.1%) patients met trial inclusion and exclusion criteria (“target” population). Compared with the placebo arm in the trial population, in the target population the median age was 12 years higher, there were more women (48.6% v 24.3%), and there was a substantially higher cumulative three year risk of both the primary (benefit) trial endpoint of recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease (18.8% (95% confidence interval 16.3% to 21.8%) v 9.04%) and the primary (harm) endpoint of fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding (3.0% (2.0% to 4.4%) v 1.26% (TIMI major bleeding)). Application of intention to treat relative risks from the trial (ticagrelor 60 mg daily arm) to CALIBER’s target population showed an estimated 101 (95% confidence interval 87 to 117) ischaemic events prevented per 10 000 treated per year and an estimated 75 (50 to 110) excess fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeds caused per 10 000 patients treated per year. Generalisation from CALIBER’s target subgroup to all 7238 real world patients who were stable at least one year after acute myocardial infarction showed similar three year risks of ischaemic events (17.2%, 16.0% to 18.5%), with an estimated 92 (86 to 99) events prevented per 10 000 patients treated per year, and similar three year risks of bleeding events (2.3%, 1.8% to 2.9%), with an estimated 58 (45 to 73) events caused per 10 000 patients treated per year. Conclusions This novel use of primary-secondary care linked electronic health records allows characterisation of “healthy trial participant” effects and confirms the potential absolute benefits and harms of dual antiplatelet therapy in representative patients a year or more after acute myocardial infarction.