Elham Nourani

Upward Altitudinal Shifts in Habitat Suitability of Mountain Vipers since the Last Glacial Maximum.

We determined the effects of past and future climate changes on the distribution of the Montivipera raddei species complex (MRC) that contains rare and endangered viper species limited to Iran, Turkey and Armenia. We also investigated the current distribution of MRC to locate unidentified isolated populations as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas for their conservation. Present distribution of MRC was modeled based on ecological variables and model performance was evaluated by field visits. Some individuals at the newly identified populations showed uncommon morphological characteristics. The distribution map of MRC derived through modeling was then compared with the distribution of protected areas in the region. We estimated the effectiveness of the current protected area network to be 10%, which would be sufficient for conserving this group of species, provided adequate management policies and practices are employed. We further modeled the distribution of MRC in the past (21,000 years ago) and under two scenarios in the future (to 2070). These models indicated that climatic changes probably have been responsible for an upward shift in suitable habitats of MRC since the Last Glacial Maximum, leading to isolation of allopatric populations. Distribution will probably become much more restricted in the future as a result of the current rate of global warming. We conclude that climate change most likely played a major role in determining the distribution pattern of MRC, restricting allopatric populations to mountaintops due to habitat alterations. This long-term isolation has facilitated unique local adaptations among MRC populations, which requires further investigation. The suitable habitat patches identified through modeling constitute optimized solutions for inclusion in the network of protected areas in the region.

An assessment of threats to Anatidae in Iran

The network of wetland systems in Iran provides valuable staging and wintering areas for waterbirds in the African-Western Eurasian flyways. The West Siberian/Caspian/Nile populations of Anatidae (ducks, geese and swans) regularly overwinter and stop over in Iran, and are considered an economically and culturally important group of birds in the country. Conservation of such migratory birds requires the identification of key threat factors impacting them throughout the flyway. Since documented data on the status and threats facing Anatidae in Iran are very scarce, in this paper, we attempted to determine the general population trends for the 26 Anatidae species in Iran, using annual waterbird census data, and to identify and score the most important threat factors affecting each species, by consulting the top ornithologists and professional birdwatchers in the country by means of a survey. Our results indicate that the most prevalent threats affecting all 26 species are dam construction, water management practices, and hunting. Our results provide the necessary material for Red List assessment of these species at the national level, an important tool for conservation priority setting within Iran and in the flyway.

Is black coat color in wolves of Iran an evidence of admixed ancestry with dogs

Melanism is not considered a typical characteristic in wolves of Iran and dark wolves are believed to have originated from crossbreeding with dogs. Such hybrid individuals can be identified with the combined use of genetic and morphological markers. We analyzed two black wolves using a 544 base pairs (bp) fragment of the mtDNA control region and 15 microsatellite loci in comparison with 28 dogs, 28 wolves, and four known hybrids. The artificial neural networks (ANNs) method was applied to microsatellite data to separate genetically differentiated samples of wolves, dogs, and hybrids, and to determine the correct class for the black specimens. Individual assignments based on ANNs showed that black samples were genetically closer to wolves. Also, in the neighbor-joining network of mtDNA haplotypes, wolves and dogs were separated, with the dark specimens located in the wolf branch as two separate haplotypes. Furthermore, we compared 20 craniometrical characters of the two black individuals with 14 other wolves. The results showed that craniometrical measures of the two black wolves fall within the range of wolf skulls. We found no trace of recent hybridization with free-ranging dogs in the two black wolves. Dark coat color might be the result of a natural combination of alleles in the coat-color-determining gene, mutation in the K locus due to past hybridization with free-ranging dogs, or the effect of ecological factors and adaption to habitat conditions.

Male Alborz Red Sheep (Ovis gmelini × O. vignei) migration corridors selection from summer to fall habitats in Jajroud Protected Area Complex, Iran

Jajroud Protected Area Complex is one of the main habitats of Alborz Red Sheep (Ovis gmelini × O. vignei) in Iran. Being close to Tehran, this habitat has been reduced and fragmented due to the human constructions. This study was designed with the aim of identifying the summer and fall habitat patches and the suitability of the matrix by means of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA). Cost-distance function was then used to calculate the cost of moving among the patches and the corridors with the least cost was identified using Least-cost path analysis. Results showed that, in both seasons, the species inhabits a narrow niche and is very sensitive to habitat changes. Overall, a suitable habitat for this species is at an elevation of more than 1535 m, with a lower average temperature than average of the habitat, with suitable escape terrain, and away from villages. Military areas, based on their specific use, can have different effects on the habitat suitability. This species selects corridors which are close to escape terrain, with a slope of about 15 percent and low slope fluctuation.

Habitat suitability and impacts of climate change on the distribution of wintering population of Asian Houbara Bustard Chlamydotis macqueenii in Iran

We developed a habitat suitability model for wintering populations of the Asian Houbara Bustard Chlamydotis macqueenii in Iran and determined environmental variables affecting its occurrence. Our results indicate that various patches in central, western and eastern Iran provide the most suitable habitats for the Houbara. Annual precipitation, slope and distance to croplands were the most important variables for predicting Houbara occurrence. We also determined the effects future climate changes on the distribution of the Houbara in Iran. Results showed that suitable habitats for the wintering Houbara will increase in Iran, but will also considerably shift under future climatic conditions. The distribution maps that we present for the present and future climatic conditions can have important implications for the conservation and management of Houbara populations in Iran.

Morphometric variations of the skull in the Gray Wolf (Canis lupus) in Iran

The Gray Wolf is a wide ranging carnivore in Iran, absent only in the central deserts and Dasht-e Lut. This study was carried out to verify whether, despite their high mobility, individual wolves belonging to different populations show morphological variations in the skull. We collected 48 skulls from various regions of Iran and measured 24 variables on the cranium. These primary variables were then used to generate six indices to examine any variations in the shape of the skulls collected in different regions of the country. Although the largest skulls collected for this study originated in the mountainous regions of the northwest, northeast, and west, principle component analysis (PCA) did not result in a meaningful difference in the size and shape of wolf skulls in different regions of Iran. Our results confirm that the minor morphological variations of the skull in wolves of Iran are not an evidence for the separation of wolf populations in different regions or the existence of various subspecies in the country. This uniformity can be explained by the strong gene flow among populations as well as high mobility of the wolf that facilitates movement of individuals between populations.