Eli Berman

Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U. S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures

This paper investigates the shift in demand away from unskilled and toward skilled labor in U. S. manufacturing over the 1980s. Production labor-saving technological change is the chief explanation for this shift. That conclusion is based on three facts: (1) the shift is due mostly to increased use of skilled workers within the 450 industries in U. S. manufacturing rather than to a reallocation of employment between industries, as would be implied by a shift in product demand due to trade or to a defense buildup; (2) trade- and defense-demand are associated with only small employment reallocation effects; (3) increased use of nonproduction workers is strongly correlated with investment in computers and in R&D.

Sect, Subsidy, and Sacrifice: an Economist's View of Ultra-Orthodox Jews

The Israeli Ultra-Orthodox population doubles each seventeen years. With 60 % of prime aged males attending Yeshiva rather than working, that community is rapidly outgrowing its resources. Why do fathers with families in poverty choose Yeshiva over work? Draft deferments subsidize Yeshiva attendance, yet attendance typically continues long after they are draft exempt. We explain this puzzle with a club good model in which Yeshiva attendance signals commitment to the community. Subsidizing membership in a club with sacrifice as an entry requirement induces increased sacrifice, compounding the distortion and dissipating the subsidy. Policies treating members and potential entrants equally are Pareto improving. The analysis may generalize to other by increasing the stringency of prohibitions and sacrifice.

Environmental Regulation and Productivity: Evidence from Oil Refineries

We examine the effect of air quality regulation on productivity in some of the most heavily regulated manufacturing plants in the United States, the oil refineries of the Los Angeles (South Coast) Air Basin. We use direct measures of local air pollution regulation to estimate their effects on abatement investment. Refineries not subject to these regulations are used as a comparison group. We study a period of sharply increased regulation between 1979 and 1992. Initial compliance with each regulation cost 3 million per plant and a further 5 million to comply with increased stringency. We construct measures of total factor productivity using Census of Manufacturers output and materials data that report physical quantities of inputs and outputs for the entire population of refineries. Despite high costs associated with the local regulations, productivity in the Los Angeles Air Basin refineries rose sharply between 1987 and 1992, which was a period of decreased refinery productivity in other regions. We conclude that abatement cost measures may grossly overstate the economic cost of environmental regulation as abatement can increase productivity.

Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq

We develop and test an economic theory of insurgency motivated by the informal literature and by recent military doctrine. We model a three-way contest between violent rebels, a government seeking to minimize violence by mixing service provision and coercion, and civilians deciding whether to share information about insurgents. We test the model using panel data from Iraq on violence against Coalition and Iraqi forces, reconstruction spending, and community characteristics (sectarian status, socioeconomic grievances, and natural resource endowments). Our results support the theory’s predictions: improved service provision reduces insurgent violence, particularly for smaller projects and since the “surge” began in 2007.

Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Philippines

Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active insurgencies. The authors test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly available measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied forces and (2) violence that kill civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces (p < .05 percent). There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. The authors identify several potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on one hand, and security measures and information costs on the other, account for the negative correlation between unemployment and violence in these three conflicts.

Help Wanted, Job Needed: Estimates of a Matching Function from Employment Service Data

I estimate a function that matches vacant jobs and unemployed workers to produce new hires. Israeli law requiring vacancy registration yields unique data quality. The literature underestimates matching function coefficients because of a simultaneity bias, as the outflow of hires depletes stocks of unemployed and vacancies. Instruments and a new simulation method address this bias. A new test reveals strong evidence of heterogeneity in unemployed and vacancies. Estimates imply labor market dynamics that absorb shocks completely within only 2 months. Reductions in the hire rate of referrals can explain a 2.1 percentage point increase in unemployment between 1978 and 1990.

Is skill-biased technological change here yet ? Evidence from Indian manufacturing in the 1990

Most high and middle-income countries showed symptoms of skill-biased technological change in the 1980s. India-a low income country-did not, perhaps because Indias traditionally controlled economy may have limited the transfer of technologies from abroad. However the economy underwent a sharp reform and a manufacturing boom in the 1990s, raising the possibility that technology absorption may have accelerated during the past decade. The authors investigate the hypothesis that skill-biased technological change did in fact arrive in India in the 1990s using panel data disaggregated by industry and state from the Annual Survey of Industry. These data confirm that while the 1980s were a period of falling skills demand, the 1990s showed generally rising demand for skills, with variation across states. They find that increased output and capital-skill complementarity appear to be the best explanations of skill upgrading in the 1990s. Skill upgrading did not occur in the same set of industries in India as it did in other countries, suggesting that increased demand for skills in Indian manufacturing is not due to the international diffusion of recent vintages of skill-biased technologies.

Subsidized sacrifice: State support of religion in Israel

This paper offers three economic arguments for ending discriminatory religious law in Israel. First, current subsidies have created massive poverty and welfare dependence in the Israeli Haredi community. With men remaining in Yeshiva till an average age of forty and the Haredi population doubling each 16 years, that community is dangerously dependent on subsidies and charity, which are unlikely to increase fast enough to support it. Previous work developed a model to explain why fathers with families in poverty choose Yeshiva over work. This paper explores policy implications of that analysis, stressing the extremely inefficient economic incentives in subsidizing membership in a community that requires personal sacrifice. Subsidies are largely dissipated by the induced increase in sacrifice. A second argument for ending discriminatory religious law is that monopoly status granted to a religious denomination limits competition in the religious services market, resulting in low quality services for the remainder of the Jewish population. Finally, by allowing discriminatory subsidies, the State encourages political-religious parties to organize. These have destabilized Israeli politics. The paper proposes equitable reforms which compensate the Haredi community for lost subsidies and religious monopoly status by expanding needs-based social programs. These reforms would foster a self-sufficient Haredi community, benefit a wider disadvantaged population, help restore a functioning political system and encourage a healthy relationship between branches of Jewish tradition within Israel.

FROM EMPTY PEWS TO EMPTY CRADLES: FERTILITY DECLINE AMONG EUROPEAN CATHOLICS

Total fertility in the Catholic countries of Southern Europe has dropped to remarkably low rates (=1.4) despite continuing low rates female labor force participation and high historic fertility. We model three ways in which religion affects the demand for children – through norms, market wages, and childrearing costs. We estimate these effects using new panel data on church attendance and clergy employment for 13 European countries from 1960 to 2000, spanning the Second Vatican Council (1962–65). Using nuns per capita as a proxy for service provision, we estimate fertility effects on the order of 300 to 400 children per nun. Moreover, nuns outperform priests as a predictor of fertility, suggesting that changes in childrearing costs dominate changes in theology and norms. Reduced church attendance also predicts fertility decline, but only for Catholics, not for Protestants. Service provision and attendance complement each other, a finding consistent with club models of religion.