Elia Biganzoli

Updated Worldwide Survey on the Methods, Efficacy, and Safety of Catheter Ablation for Human Atrial Fibrillation

Background—The purpose of this study was to provide an updated worldwide report on the methods, efficacy, and safety of catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods and Results—A questionnaire with 46 questions was sent to 521 centers from 24 countries in 4 continents. Complete interviews were collected from 182 centers, of which 85 reported to have performed 20 825 catheter ablation procedures on 16 309 patients with AF between 2003 and 2006. The median number of procedures per center was 245 (range, 2 to 2715). All centers included paroxysmal AF, 85.9% also included persistent and 47.1% also included long-lasting AF. Carto-guided left atrial circumferential ablation (48.2% of patients) and Lasso-guided ostial electric disconnection (27.4%) were the most commonly used techniques. Efficacy data were analyzed with centers representing the unit of analysis. Of 16 309 patients with full disclosure of outcome data, 10 488 (median, 70.0%; interquartile range, 57.7% to 75.4%) became asymptomatic without antiarrhythmic drugs and another 2047 (10.0%; 0.5% to 17.1%) became asymptomatic in the presence of previously ineffective antiarrhythmic drugs over 18 (range, 3 to 24) months of follow-up. Success rates free of antiarrhythmic drugs and overall success rates were significantly larger in 9590 patients with paroxysmal AF (74.9% and 83.2%) than in 2800 patients with persistent AF (64.8% and 75.0%) and 1108 patients with long-lasting AF (63.1% and 72.3%) (P<0.0001). Major complications were reported in 741 patients (4.5%). Conclusions—When analyzed in a large number of electrophysiology laboratories worldwide, catheter ablation of AF shows to be effective in ≈80% of patients after 1.3 procedures per patient, with ≈70% of them not requiring further antiarrhythmic drugs during intermediate follow-up.

Feed forward neural networks for the analysis of censored survival data: A partial logistic regression approach

Flexible modelling in survival analysis can be useful both for exploratory and predictive purposes. Feed forward neural networks were recently considered for flexible non-linear modelling of censored survival data through the generalization of both discrete and continuous time models. We show that by treating the time interval as an input variable in a standard feed forward network with logistic activation and entropy error function, it is possible to estimate smoothed discrete hazards as conditional probabilities of failure. We considered an easily implementable approach with a fast selection criteria of the best configurations. Examples on data sets from two clinical trials are provided. The proposed artificial neural network (ANN) approach can be applied for the estimation of the functional relationships between covariates and time in survival data to improve model predictivity in the presence of complex prognostic relationships.

Response to Cyclophosphamide, Methotrexate, and Fluorouracil in Lymph Node–Positive Breast Cancer According to HER2 Overexpression and Other Tumor Biologic Variables

PURPOSE There is considerable interest in biologic markers able to predict the response of cancer patients to therapy. HER2 overexpression is a potential indicator of responsiveness to doxorubicin and paclitaxel and of unresponsiveness to tamoxifen in breast carcinoma patients. However, the significance of HER2 overexpression in responsiveness to cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) has remained unclear. In this study, we investigated this issue in the 386 breast cancer patients in the first CMF controlled clinical trial with a 20-year follow-up. PATIENTS AND METHODS Node-positive breast carcinoma patients were randomly assigned to receive either no further treatment after radical mastectomy (179 women) or 12 monthly cycles of adjuvant CMF chemotherapy (207 women). Overexpression of HER2 and the status of other tumor variables was assessed by immunohistochemistry in at least 324 (84%) of the 386 patients. Statistical analyses were performed to assess the efficacy of CMF treatment for the subgroups defined by HER2 and the status of other variables using a Bayesian approach. The end points considered were relapse-free survival (RFS) and cause-specific survival (CSS). RESULTS Bayesian analysis of the treatment effect for HER2 and other variables indicated a clinical benefit from CMF treatment in all subgroups defined according to variables status. In particular regarding HER2 status, Bayesian estimates of RFS hazard ratios were equal to 0.484 and 0.641 and estimates of CSS hazard ratios were equal to 0.495 and 0.730 for HER2-positive and -negative tumors, respectively. CONCLUSION CMF treatment showed a clinical benefit in the considered subgroups, defined according to HER2 and other tumor variables status. Patients with HER2-positive or HER2-negative tumors benefit from CMF treatment, and the poor prognosis associated with the HER2 overexpression in the untreated group could be completely overcome by the chemotherapy treatment.

HER2 Overexpression and Doxorubicin in Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Resectable Breast Cancer

PURPOSE Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) overexpression was found to predict a good response in breast carcinoma patients treated with doxorubicin (Adriamycin [ADM]). Evidence from our recent study indicates that node-positive patients respond to cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) regardless of HER2 status. We address the issue of whether therapy regimens including CMF and ADM versus CMF alone have the same therapeutic effect in patients with HER2+ and HER2- tumors in terms of relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). METHODS Archival specimens of the primary tumors from 506 patients in a prospective clinical trial were stained with the anti-HER2 monoclonal antibody CB11. Originally, patients were randomly allocated to receive either 12 courses of intravenous CMF or eight courses of the same regimen followed by four cycles of ADM. RFS and OS were analyzed by a Cox model taking into account treatment, HER2 status, and the interaction between treatment and HER2 status, adjusting for the effect of other known clinical and biopathologic factors. RESULTS Analysis of survival rates indicates a possible differential effect of treatment in the patients grouped according to HER2 status. Improved RFS and OS were observed in the HER2+ subgroup after treatment with CMF plus ADM versus CMF alone. With a median follow-up of 15 years, the hazard ratio (HR) for RFS was 0.83 in HER2+ tumors and 1.22 in HER2- tumors. The effect of treatment was more evident on OS in HER2+ patients (HR = 0.61; CI, 0.32 to 1.16) than in HER2- patients (HR = 1.26). CONCLUSION Our data indicate that adding ADM to CMF might be beneficial for patients with HER2+ tumors.

Axillary Lymph Node Nanometastases Are Prognostic Factors for Disease-Free Survival and Metastatic Relapse in Breast Cancer Patients

Purpose: Early breast cancer presents with a remarkable heterogeneity of outcomes. Undetected, microscopic lymph node tumor deposits may account for a significant fraction of this prognostic diversity. Thus, we systematically evaluated the presence of lymph node tumor cell deposits ≤0.2 mm in diameter [pN0(i+), nanometastases] and analyzed their prognostic effect. Experimental Design: Single-institution, consecutive patients with 8 years of median follow-up (n = 702) were studied. To maximize chances of detecting micrometastases and nanometastases, whole-axilla dissections were analyzed. pN0 cases (n = 377) were systematically reevaluated by lymph node (n = 6676) step-sectioning and anticytokeratin immunohistochemical analysis. The risk of first adverse events and of distant relapse of bona fide pN0 patients was compared with that of pN0(i+), pN1mi, and pN1 cases. Results: Minimal lymph node deposits were revealed in 13% of pN0 patients. The hazard ratio for all adverse events of pN0(i+) versus pN0(i−) was 2.51 (P = 0.00019). Hazards of pN1mi and pN0(i+) cases were not significantly different. A multivariate Cox model showed a hazard ratio of 2.16 for grouped pN0(i+)/pN1mi versus pN0(i−) (P = 0.0005). Crude cumulative incidence curves for metastatic relapse were also significantly different (Grays test χ2 = 5.54, P = 0.019). Conclusion: Nanometastases are a strong risk factor for disease-free survival and for metastatic relapse. These findings support the inclusion of procedures for nanometastasis detection in tumor-node-metastasis staging.

Randomized trial of fenretinide (4-HPR) to prevent recurrences, new localizations and carcinomas in patients operated on for oral leukoplakia : Long-term results

We assessed the efficacy of fenretinide at preventing relapses, new lesions and carcinomas after surgical excision of oral leukoplakia. In a controlled multicenter study, 170 patients operated on for oral leukoplakias with benign postoperative histology were randomized to 200 mg fenretinide daily for 1 year vs. no intervention. Preliminary analysis indicated that fenretinide had good tolerability and was effective at preventing relapses and new lesions during treatment. Analysis after 5‐year follow‐up suggested that fenretinide protected against relapses and new lesions up to 19 months after randomization, with both limits of the 95% hazard ratio CI for fenretinide vs. control below 1 for 7 months after randomization. There was also a protective effect against all first events, including cancer, for 25 months, with both limits of the 95% CI below 1 up to 11 months after randomization. Subsequently, risk ratio estimates were unstable. Fenretinide was well tolerated and effective at preventing relapses and new leukoplakias during treatment and after. The trial had to be stopped prematurely for very low recruitment and had insufficient power to reveal any protective effect against oral carcinoma; nevertheless, continuing studies on this promising chemopreventive are justified.

Recurrence Dynamics for Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer: Effect of Surgery on the Development of Metastases

Introduction: We study event rates over time (event dynamics) in patients undergoing surgery for early-stage non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: Using a database of patients undergoing initial surgery for NSCLC, the event dynamics, based on the hazard rate, were evaluated. Events evaluated included time to any treatment failure, local recurrence, distant metastasis (DM), and development of a second primary lung cancer. Results: Among 1506 patients, time to any treatment failure dynamics demonstrated an initial surge in the hazard rate 9 months after surgery, followed by two smaller peaks at the end of the second and fourth years, respectively. This pattern was dominated by DM events. Two distinguishable peaks were noted for local recurrence in the first and second years. In contrast, the hazard rate for second primary lung cancer exhibited a more uniform pattern over time. The DM dynamics was analyzed by sex and three peaks emerged for both sexes. The timing of the first peak was similar for both sexes, at 7 to 9 months after surgery. The second peak occurred earlier in men (18–20 months) than women (24–26 months). For both sexes the third peak appeared during the fourth year. Conclusions: Recurrence dynamics of resected early-stage NSCLC displays a multipeak pattern, which supports the hypothesis of a metastasis growth model previously described for early-stage breast cancer. The model assumes both cellular and micrometastatic tumor dormancy and a transient phase of acceleration of metastatic growth following surgical excision of the primary tumor.

Improving outcome prediction of systemic sclerosis from isolated Raynaud’s phenomenon: role of autoantibodies and nail-fold capillaroscopy

OBJECTIVE A simple weighted prognostic algorithm, based on capillaroscopy and autoantibodies, is developed to classify patients at different risk of transition from isolated RP to SSc within 5 years from the screening visit. METHODS Two hundred and eighty-eight of 768 patients with isolated RP who underwent capillaroscopy were recruited. The prognostic contributions of capillaroscopic findings (giant loops, haemorrhages and the number of capillaries) and SSc-associated autoantibodies (ACAs, anti-topo I and ANAs) were assessed in a semi-parametric regression models suitable for competing risks. A prognostic index was built by a bagging technique. A structured tree approach was used to extract simple classificatory rules that can be directly interpreted. RESULTS Thirty-four transitions from isolated RP to SSc and 42 to other CTDs were observed. All of the chosen variables had a substantial prognostic impact. A complex non-linear prognostic pattern was observed for capillaries, with the risk of developing SSc increasing as the number of loops decreased. The presence of ANAs had a strong impact on prognosis [hazard ratio (HR) = 9.70], which was increased by the presence of ACA (HR = 3.94; P < 0.001). A weighted prognostic classification for the development of SSc was constructed using capillary number, giant loops and ANAs. The prognostic discrimination was satisfactory (Harrells C-index = 0.86). CONCLUSION Our prognostic model is based on easy-to-obtain features (i.e. the number of capillaries, giant loops and ANAs) and could be used to facilitate clinical decision making in the screening phase, and may also have important implications for stratifying patients into risk groups for future clinical assessment.

A general framework for neural network models on censored survival data

Flexible parametric techniques for regression analysis, such as those based on feed forward artificial neural networks (FFANNs), can be useful for the statistical analysis of censored time data. These techniques are of particular interest for the study of the outcome dependence from several variables measured on a continuous scale, since they allow for the detection of complex non-linear and non-additive effects. Few efforts have been made until now to account for censored times in FFANNs. In the attempt to fill this gap, specific error functions and data representation will be introduced for multilayer perceptron and radial basis function extensions of generalized linear models for survival data.

Recurrence dynamics does not depend on the recurrence site

IntroductionThe dynamics of breast cancer recurrence and death, indicating a bimodal hazard rate pattern, has been confirmed in various databases. A few explanations have been suggested to help interpret this finding, assuming that each peak is generated by clustering of similar recurrences and different peaks result from distinct categories of recurrence.MethodsThe recurrence dynamics was analysed in a series of 1526 patients undergoing conservative surgery at the National Cancer Institute of Milan, Italy, for whom the site of first recurrence was recorded. The study was focused on the first clinically relevant event occurring during the follow up (ie, local recurrence, distant metastasis, contralateral breast cancer, second primary tumour), the dynamics of which was studied by estimating the specific hazard rate.ResultsThe hazard rate for any recurrence (including both local and distant disease relapses) displayed a bimodal pattern with a first surge peaking at about 24 months and a second peak at almost 60 months. The same pattern was observed when the whole recurrence risk was split into the risk of local recurrence and the risk of distant metastasis. However, the hazard rate curves for both contralateral breast tumours and second primary tumours revealed a uniform course at an almost constant level. When patients with distant metastases were grouped by site of recurrence (soft tissue, bone, lung or liver or central nervous system), the corresponding hazard rate curves displayed the typical bimodal pattern with a first peak at about 24 months and a later peak at about 60 months.ConclusionsThe bimodal dynamics for early stage breast cancer recurrence is again confirmed, providing support to the proposed tumour-dormancy-based model. The recurrence dynamics does not depend on the site of metastasis indicating that the timing of recurrences is generated by factors influencing the metastatic development regardless of the seeded organ. This finding supports the view that the disease course after surgical removal of the primary tumour follows a common pathway with well-defined steps and that the recurrence risk pattern results from inherent features of the metastasis development process, which are apparently attributable to tumour cells.