Eliahu Stern

Simulating the evacuation of a small city: the effects of traffic factors

Abstract A behavioral-based simulation model for spontaneous urban evacuation is used to examine the sensitivity of network clearance time to several traffic factors (e.g. interaction with pedestrians, intersection traversing time, and car ownership) and route choice mechanisms (shortest path and myopic behavior). It is a micro traffic simulation model based on stochastic simulation of series of events in a radiological emergency situation. Evacuation time comes closer to reality when interaction with pedestrians and a uniform distribution of intersection traversing time are assumed. More realistic results are also found whenever routes are selected according to the maximal distance from the last car. The sensitivity of clearance time to population growth and car ownership indicates that the model can be easily applied to cities of various sizes.

Web-based and traditional public participation in comprehensive planning: a comparative study

The present paper examines whether the potential advantages of the expanding practice of web-based public participation only complement the benefits of the traditional techniques, or whether they are empowering enough to replace them. The question is examined in a real-world case of neighborhood revitalization, in which both techniques were practiced simultaneously. Comparisons are made at four major planning junctions, in order to study the contributions of each technique to the qualities of involvement, trust, and empowerment. The results show that web-based participants not only differ from the participation of traditional practices, but they also differ from each other on the basis of their type of web participation. The results indicate that web-based participation is an effective complementary means of public participation, but it cannot replace the traditional unmediated techniques.

REACTIONS TO CONGESTION UNDER TIME PRESSURE

Abstract All transport-related models of the black-box type lack a choice process mechanism which can enable to explain the dynamics and the high variability of human preferences and choice, mainly under conditions of congestion. Decision Field Theory, recently developed in psychology, offers such a mechanism. The present author further elaborated the theory and proposed an empirical research agenda to investigate the role of various exogenous variables on the theoretical choice mechanism. This study is a part of the agenda aiming to study the role of time pressure in explaining the individuals’ reaction to congestion under time pressure. Hypotheses concerning with decision rules are tested in an experimental setting involved lane switching decisions on a congested road under changing levels of time pressure. The results show the growing use of non-compensatory decision rules by those driving under congestion and the exogenous effects of time pressure on both the deliberation (choice) process and the use of information.

Macro- and microlevel factors related to sense of community: The case of temporary neighborhoods in Israel

This study examines macro and micro factors influencing the development of sense of community (Davidson & Cotter, 1980) in two different populations (immigrants and veterans) in new temporary neighborhoods in Israel. At the macrolevel, the major factors examined were population size, population density, number of dwelling units in the site, urbanity of the area, ethnic heterogeneity, and peripheriality of the region. Three kinds of variables were examined on the microlevel: (a) personal attitudes: evaluation of the dwelling unit and satisfaction with public services; (b) social networks; and (c) sociodemographic characteristics. Data were collected from 242 immigrants from the former USSR and from 60 Israeli veterans, residing in 5 different sites. Two different patterns of predictors of sense of community emerged in the two different samples. In the veteran sample, only one macrolevel variable entered the stepwise analysis equation: the number of dwelling units in the site. In the immigrant sample, three significant microlevel factors entered the equation: evaluation of the dwelling unit, external network, and age. The data thus suggest that the major determinant factors underlying sense of community vary for different groups of people.

Changing Strategies of Development: Toward a Regiopolis in the Negev Desert

Abstract In this paper, the evolution of the Negev urban system in the light of planning strategies applied for promoting growth and development is examined, taking into account both Zionist planning ideology and the frontier arid environment of the region. Central place theory, adopted by the Zionist planners in the early stages of development, had to be modified in order to be appropriate for arid zone development. A polarized planning concept more appropriate to the Negev and other similar arid zones is introduced, unifying center and periphery within a single regiopolis. It is functioning as one integrated metropolis; but rather than a continuity of built up areas there are “islands” of urban communities and industrial complexes, separated by arid vacant land within a commuting growth region.

BEHAVIOURAL MODELLING OF ROAD USERS: CURRENT RESEARCH AND FUTURE NEEDS.

Despite the considerable work done on travel behaviour in general and on driving behaviour in particular, it is argued that most of the behavioural models still lack a cognitive explanatory mechanism of the individual’s choice process. The paper presents a survey of recent important research in this area from European and North American perspectives in order to identify issues that should be studied more closely as a base for a new research agenda. It was found that since the human cognitive mechanism of travel decision‐making is universal, idiosyncratic situations, cultural and societal norms can affect the individual’s perception of constraints that will consequently affect the whole decision‐making process. An extension of the Decision Field Theory is proposed as a framework for a new research agenda, which will include the effects of travel situations (e.g. timing, dynamics and type) as well as of cultural habits and societal norms. This theory is aimed at understanding the motivational and cognitive mechanisms that guide a deliberation process involved in making travel decisions under uncertainty.

ROAD SAFETY AND HOT WEATHER : A STUDY IN APPLIED TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY

HEAT STRESS ON THE DRIVER AS A CAUSE OF ACCIDENTS (ESPECIALLY ONE-CAR ACCIDENTS) WITH ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM THE ARAVA ROAD IN THE NEGEV REGION OF ISRAEL

DETERMINANTS OF SUBJECTIVE TIME ESTIMATES IN SIMULATED URBAN DRIVING

Abstract An urban driving simulator is used to generate a data base for calibrating and testing a causal path model for subjective time estimates. The model specifies the determinants of subjective time through a web of direct and indirect interactions confirming a positive relationship between the density of urban environmental stimuli (e.g., traffic lights, turns) and time estimates. The results suggest that subjective time is predictable on the basis of time distance, physical distance, and obstacle-like variables. Some implications of the results of urban travel modeling are put forward.

Mean velocity and total time estimation effects of order and proportions

Abstract Estimates of mean velocity and total driving time were studied for trips on an urban driving simulator. Routes traveled varied in two respects: the order of the segments, and the proportion of slow and fast segments. Regarding velocity, order effects were found: the first and last segments of a route influence mean velocity disproportionately. Beyond this, weighting by the proportion traveled at a given velocity is roughly correct, but there is a general leveling of differences as lower velocities are overestimated and higher ones underestimated. Total duration estimates were independent of order. Fast stretches are overestimated, slow ones are underestimated. These findings are explained by the attentional-allocation model of time perception, and a memory-based, retrospective estimation for mean velocity estimation.

Evacuation Intentions of Parents in an Urban Radiological Emergency

As part of the efforts to model the evacuation behaviour of urban residents in the event of a day-time radiological emergency, the present study determines and interprets the extent to which parents of school children rely upon school authorities in evacuating their children away from a danger zone. Two-thirds of parents surveyed in this study distrust organised evacuation and would retrieve their children personally. These parents are usually more mobile. recognising the benefits of nuclear power in general, but at the same time are highly aware of its potential risk to the public. The extent of distrust exceeds similar findings elsewhere. General implications for urban evacuation are discussed, and recommendations for urgent evacuation preparedness of schools are put forward.