Elin Charles-Edwards

Improved measures for the cross-national comparison of age profiles of internal migration

We develop and demonstrate the application of a concise set of measures intended to encapsulate key features of the age profile of internal migration and highlight the significant differences that exist between nations in these profiles. Model schedules have been the most common method of comparing internal migration patterns but issues related to the estimation and interpretation of their parameters hinder their use for cross-national comparison. We demonstrate that the interpretation of exponential coefficients as rates of ascent and descent does not best reflect the slopes of migration age profiles, and we propose more consistent measures based on the rate of change in migration intensity. We demonstrate, through correlation and factor analysis, that most of the inter-country variance in migration age profiles is captured by the age at and intensity of peak migration. The application of these two indicators to 25 countries reveals significant differences between regions.

Internal migration around the world: comparing distance travelled and its frictional effect

This paper examines how internal migration distance and its frictional effect vary between countries. Such comparisons are hampered by differences in the number and configuration of spatial units for which data are available − the modifiable area unit problem (MAUP). We use the flexible aggregation routines embedded in the IMAGE Studio, a bespoke software platform which incorporates a spatial interaction model, to elucidate these scale and pattern effects in a set of countries for which finely grained origin-destination matrices are available. We model the relationship between mean migration distance and mean area size and we show that the frictional effect of distance remains remarkably stable across spatial scale, except where zones have small populations and are poorly connected. This stability allows robust comparisons between countries even though zonal systems differ. We find that mean migration distances vary widely, being highest in large, low-density countries and positively associated with urbanisation, HDI and GDP per capita. This suggests a positive link between development and migration distance, paralleling that between development and migration intensity. We find less variation in the beta parameter that measures distance friction but identify clear spatial divisions between more developed countries, with lower friction in larger, less dense countries undergoing rapid population growth.

Comparing internal migration across the countries of Latin America: A multidimensional approach

While considerable progress has been made in understanding the way particular aspects of internal migration, such as its intensity, age profile and spatial impact, vary between countries around the world, little attention to date has been given to establishing how these dimensions of migration interact in different national settings. We use recently developed measures of internal migration that are scale-independent to compare the overall intensity, age composition, spatial impact, and distance profile of internal migration in 19 Latin American countries. Comparisons reveal substantial cross-national variation but cluster analysis suggests the different dimensions of migration evolve systematically to form a broad sequence characterised by low intensities, young ages at migration, unbalanced flows and high friction of distance at lower levels of development, trending to high intensities, an older age profile of migration, more closely balanced flows and lower friction of distance at later stages of development. However, the transition is not linear and local contingencies, such as international migration and political control, often distort the migration-development nexus, leading to unique migration patterns in individual national contexts.

Integrating Undergraduate Fieldwork into the Study of Human Mobility

ABSTRACT Fieldwork has long been fundamental to human geography; however, increasingly unreceptive institutional environments have led to a decline in fieldwork in undergraduate human geography programs. We argue that mobility research presents an opportunity to reinvigorate the undergraduate field trip in human geography. We report on a second-year field course to Noosa, Australia, that blends new technologies with conventional survey techniques to capture data on a spectrum of human spatial behaviour. Over the course of a single weekend, students collect GPS traces of tourist mobility, survey businesses on the journey to work, collect residential migration histories and trace population dynamics on Noosa beach. Over the three years the course has been running, students have constructed a large repository of data on this Australian mobility hotspot, of which we report highlights. Results from standardised student course evaluations confirm the pedagogical value of these initiatives for human geography undergraduates.

Demographic futures for South East Queensland

Abstract In 1981, the population of South East Queensland stood at 1.5 million. Today, the region is home to twice that number, and over the last few years has been increasing in population by an average of 2.7%, or 80,000, per year. Concern about high population growth and its implications for housing affordability, transport, water supply and the environment have recently led some commentators to call for reduced population growth, or even a population cap. This paper examines key characteristics of South East Queenslands population and household trends and presents several scenarios, both plausible and implausible, for their future development. In addition to conventional high and low scenarios, we explore the demographic implications of capping population at current levels. Consequences range from rapid growth (7.4 million by mid-century) to severe ageing. We also show that household growth continues even under conditions of zero population growth. Our results demonstrate that population dynamics involve substantial inertia, with little scope for policy to influence outcomes in the short term. Realistically, planners should be preparing for sustained population growth in South East Queensland with continued population ageing, and large increases in the number of lone person and couple households without children.

The estimation of temporary populations in Australia

Temporary or non-resident populations can generate significant demand for goods and services within local areas with implications for planning and service provision, fiscal allocation and emergency preparedness. Recognition of the importance of temporary populations has grown considerably in recent decades, both in Australia and overseas, however a standard methodology for their estimation has yet to be advanced. This paper reviews available data and methods for the estimation of temporary populations in Australia. Three broad approaches are identified: direct approaches which draw on censuses and surveys to estimate temporary stocks and flows; indirect methods, which rely on symptomatic indicators of population flux; and data derived from information and communication technologies. A model framework capable of integrating multiple data sets, VisPOP, is then described. The utility of different data sets for the estimation of temporary populations in Australia are assessed using Noosa, Queensland as a case study. While no single data source is likely to prove a panacea for the estimation of temporary populations in all locations and contexts, results suggest that it is possible to integrate multiple data sets to produce reliable estimates of non-resident populations.

Demography for Planning and Policy: Australian Case Studies

Introduction: Tom Wilson, Elin Charles-Edwards and Martin Bell.-Democracy and Dollars: Use of Demography in Distribution: Patrick Corr.- POPACTS: simplified multi-regional projection software for State, regional and local area population projections: Tom Wilson.- Communicating population projections to stakeholders: a case study from New South Wales: Kim Johnstone.- LSUM - A Large Scale Model for Predicting the Pattern of Urban Growth: Martin Bell, David Pullar, Jonathan Corcoran, Jim Cooper.- Applying the insights from the behavioural sciences to population planning: A case study of Indigenous Australians: Nicholas Biddle.- Migration and ageing processes in non-metropolitan Australia: An analysis of thirty years of dramatic change: Trevor Griffin, Neil Argent and Peter Smailes.- The Demography of Coastal Communities - Implications for Planning: Graeme Hugo.- Searching for visitors? The utility of web-sourced data for the estimation of temporary populations in Australia: Elin Charles-Edwards.- Spatial Mobility Patterns of Overseas Graduates in Australia: Angelina Tang and Jonathan Corcoran.- Relationships between population change, deprivation change and health change at the SA2 level: Australia 2001-2011: Paul Norman, Tom Wilson and Elin Charles-Edwards.- Measuring Spatial Variations in Wellness Among the Aged: Martin Bell and Jim Cooper.

Why do a PhD in geography? A sympathetic response to ‘the career aspirations and expectations of geography students’: Why do a PhD in geography?

This article provides commentary on the changing nature of the geography PhD. Taking as a point of departure Rae Dufty-Joness article on the career aspirations and expectations of geography doctoral students published in this journal earlier this year, we frame the paper around a series of propositions that prospective higher degree candidates may find useful. We buttress Dufty-Joness argument with numerical evidence that the “supply” of Australian PhDs outstrips “demand” by any reasonable measure. This evidence brings to light the question of whether a PhD in geography is meant to serve its traditional function as a threshold for an academic career and whether those pursuing non-academic pathways should invest their time and effort in what may have become a “gladiatorial” pursuit. While the challenges facing PhD candidates are not insurmountable, they are not trivial. To optimise the experience and outcomes of a PhD, the needs and aspirations of candidates must be balanced, therefore, against the levels of support provided by universities. Candidates thus need to understand how such professional and personal aspirations fit in the contemporary higher education landscape and to appreciate what value a PhD holds—both to the individual and to society more broadly. We suggest two solutions to the pessimism of neoliberalisation and “massification”: greater emphasis on a terminal masters degree in geography and insistence that geographers promote disciplinary visibility to the greatest extent possible, with the hope that geographical approaches to problem-solving are increasingly recognised across industry and government.

Housemates, inmates and living mates: communal living in Australia

ABSTRACT Australias population is transitioning from traditional family homes to communal living, in either house sharing, institutionally provided housing or, as part of Intentional Community Living Arrangements (ICLAs). Between 2001 and 2016 there was a 42.2% increase to almost five million people living communally. This paper investigates communal living in Australia using data from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 Censuses and introduces ICLAs: group dwellings characterised by five or more unrelated individuals who intentionally combine their efforts in a self-governed manner and share aspects of living for collective community benefit. Unlike other forms of communal housing, ICLAs are not identified in the Census. To address this deficit, the paper draws upon ICLA association websites and online questionnaire responses to estimate a resident population of 25,000 members across 1700 communities. Growing public awareness of the benefits of communal living is likely to place pressure upon planners to facilitate a range of communal housing types. ICLAs have a number of attributes that make them a sustainable form of collaborative, communal housing. The adoption of the ICLA model will, however, require a shift in attitudes among planners and changes to planning regulations.

The regional pattern of Australia’s largest overseas-born populations

Abstract The first decades of the new millennium have seen a dramatic increase in the level of net overseas migration to Australia. This has been accompanied by growing diversity in the origins of migrants away from the traditional source countries in Northern and Western Europe towards Asia. One result of this trend is an increasingly complex settlement geography. This Regional Graphic paper seeks to represent Australia’s immigrant geography by mapping the largest overseas-born population for regions of Australia using recently released 2016 Census data. The maps reveal a strong regionalization in migrant populations. Patterns reflect the concentration of some smaller migrant groups (e.g., Former Yugoslav Region (FYR) of Macedonia), while larger migrant groups (e.g., the UK) are more dispersed across the continent. Climate and geographical proximity to immigrants’ country of origin are possible factors driving the observed broad-level geographical variation in settlement.