Elin Halvorsen

Inequality Comparisons in a Multi-Period Framework: The Role of Alternative Welfare Metrics

This paper considers the use of alternative welfare metrics in evaluations of income inequality in a multi-period context. Using Norwegian longitudinal income data, it is found, as in many studies, that inequality is lower when each individual’s annual average income is used as welfare metric, compared with the use of a single-period accounting framework. However, this result does not necessarily hold when aversion to income fluctuations is introduced. Furthermore, when actual incomes are replaced by expected incomes (conditional on an initial period),using a model of income dynamics, higher values of inequality over longer periods are typically found, although comparisons depend on inequality and variability aversion parameters. The results are strongly influenced by the observed high degree of systematic regression towards the (geometric) mean, combined with a large extent of individual unexpected effects.

A Suggestion for Evaluating the Redistributional Effects of Tax Changes: With an Application to the 2006 Norwegian Tax Reform:

An evaluation strategy for answering the question, “Is the tax schedule more redistributive after a reform than prior to a reform?” is presented. The procedure builds upon addressing measures of tax redistribution, utilizing micro data from periods before and after the reform. Tax redistributional effects are measured in terms of a “common base” approach, which means that a benchmark is established which facilitates identifying how the redistributional efforts of policy makers develop over time. When applying this method for evaluation of the 2006 Norwegian tax reform, the results suggest that the modification of the dual income tax system of the 2006 reform has improved the redistributional effect of the schedule. This conclusion is qualified by addressing measurement challenges brought up by the reform, such as behavioral responses and timing effects.

Imputing consumption from Norwegian income and wealth registry data

Data on consumption expenditure of the household is essential in a wide array of economic research. This includes both topics in micro as well as macroeconomics. However, obtaining a consistent and precise measure of household consumption has proven notoriously difficult. This paper documents a method for computing a longitudinal consumption measure for Norwegian households from administrative records of income and wealth. Expenditure surveys tend to suffer from limited sample sizes and underrepresentation of high-income households. Administrative data does not have such limitations and offers a much larger sample with better coverage of all household types. This is particularly useful for improving the measurement of heterogeneity in consumption behavior.

Debt and Household Consumption Responses

Norwegian households’ levels of housing wealth have since the banking crisis of the 90s become an ever more dominant part of households’ portfolios. Low interest rates and easy access to mortgages have contributed to both increasing house prices and the corresponding increase in household debt. A potential concern for policy makers is how these high debt levels will affect household consumption were the economy to experience a sudden shock, in form of higher unemployment, rising interest rates, falling house prices or a combination of the three. This memo provides an overview of the theoretical implications and the empirical literature on the effects of such shocks on consumption, with an emphasis on heterogeneous responses. We use Norwegian register data on income and wealth to impute measures of consumption for the population and explore differences in consumption rates to gauge the potential impact of such shocks in Norway. We study the role of debt for consumption and find support for the hypothesis that consumption expenditure growth is lower among households with high debt. Much of the leveling off in consumption growth after the crisis reflects a regular response by highly indebted households. Still, a somewhat stronger relationship after the crisis shows that precautionary savings may have played a role.

Closing the gender gap in pensions: A microsimulation analysis of the Norwegian NDC pension system

In this article, we use an advanced microsimulation model to study the distributional effects of the reformed Norwegian pension system with a particular focus on gender equality. The reformed Norwegian system is based on the notional defined contribution (NDC)-formula with fixed contribution/accrual rates over the active life-phase and with accumulated pension wealth being transformed into an annuity upon retirement. A number of redistributive components are built into the system: a unisex annuity divisor, a ceiling on annual earnings, generous child credits, a possibility for widows/widowers to inherit pension rights from a deceased spouse, a targeted guarantee pensions with higher benefit rates to single pensioners compared to married/cohabitating pensioners, and finally a tax system that is particularly progressive in its treatment of pensioners and pension income. Taking complete actuarial fairness as the point of departure, we conduct a stepwise analysis to investigate how these different components of the National Insurance pension system impact on the gender gap in pensions and on general (Gini) inequality in the distribution of pension income within a cohort of pensioners. Our analysis concentrates on one birth cohort – individuals born in 1963 – and we study three different outcomes: the distribution of annual pensions early in retirement (at age 70), the distribution of the total sum of pension benefits received over retirement, and the distribution of the average annual pension benefits received over the retirement phase. In addition, we look at three alternative income concepts. These are personal income, equivalised household income, and finally an original income concept developed for this study: personal income adjusted for the economies of scale enjoyed by couple households.

Heterogeneity of the Carnegie Effect

The Carnegie effect is the harm inherited wealth does to a recipient’s work effort. Carnegie effect estimates are few, reflecting that such effects are hard to trace. Most previous studies rely on data from limited-size surveys. We use information from administrative data covering the entire Norwegian population, enabling an examination of the heterogeneity of the Carnegie effect. Estimation results show significant reductions in labor supply for recipients of large inheritances. We find that Carnegie effects differ according to transfer size, the recipient’s age and eligibility for other transfer programs, and the existence of new heirs in the family chain.