Elisabete Weiderpass

Body-mass index and mortality among 1.46 million white adults.

BACKGROUND A high body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular disease and certain cancers, but the precise relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality remains uncertain. METHODS We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for an association between BMI and all-cause mortality, adjusting for age, study, physical activity, alcohol consumption, education, and marital status in pooled data from 19 prospective studies encompassing 1.46 million white adults, 19 to 84 years of age (median, 58). RESULTS The median baseline BMI was 26.2. During a median follow-up period of 10 years (range, 5 to 28), 160,087 deaths were identified. Among healthy participants who never smoked, there was a J-shaped relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality. With a BMI of 22.5 to 24.9 as the reference category, hazard ratios among women were 1.47 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1.33 to 1.62) for a BMI of 15.0 to 18.4; 1.14 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.22) for a BMI of 18.5 to 19.9; 1.00 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.04) for a BMI of 20.0 to 22.4; 1.13 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.17) for a BMI of 25.0 to 29.9; 1.44 (95% CI, 1.38 to 1.50) for a BMI of 30.0 to 34.9; 1.88 (95% CI, 1.77 to 2.00) for a BMI of 35.0 to 39.9; and 2.51 (95% CI, 2.30 to 2.73) for a BMI of 40.0 to 49.9. In general, the hazard ratios for the men were similar. Hazard ratios for a BMI below 20.0 were attenuated with longer-term follow-up. CONCLUSIONS In white adults, overweight and obesity (and possibly underweight) are associated with increased all-cause mortality. All-cause mortality is generally lowest with a BMI of 20.0 to 24.9.

Venous thromboembolism and cancer

BACKGROUND Although cancer has been clearly associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE), many aspects of this relation are poorly understood, including the cancer sites most affected and the cancer risk during long-term follow-up. To clarify these relations, we carried out a large, population-based analysis of VTE and cancer risk. METHODS Using the Swedish Inpatient Register and linkage to the nationwide Cancer Registry, we assessed cancer incidence during 1989 among 61,998 patients without a previous cancer diagnosis admitted to hospital between 1965 and 1983 for VTE. To measure possible increases in cancer risk, we computed standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) using Swedish national cancer rates for the period of the study. FINDINGS At the time of thromboembolic admission or during the first year of follow-up, 2509 cancers were diagnosed (SIR 4.4, 95% CI 4.2-4.6) [corrected]. The SIR for polycythaemia vera was 12.9 (8.6-18.7), and the SIRs for cancers of the liver, pancreas, ovary, and brain, and for Hodgkin lymphoma also exceeded 5.0. Patients aged less than 65 years had higher SIRs than those who were older. In subsequent years, 6081 cancers were diagnosed (1.3, 1.3-1.3). Even 10 years or more after admission to hospital with VTE, cancer incidence had increased (1.3, 1.3-1.4). INTERPRETATION At the time of VTE or in the first year afterwards, we found a large increase in the risk for diagnosis of virtually all cancers. In subsequent years, a persistent 30% increase in risk remains. Either premalignant change promotes thrombosis, or cancer and thrombosis share common risk factors.

Occupation and cancer ― follow-up of 15 million people in five Nordic countries

We present up to 45 years of cancer incidence data by occupational category for the Nordic populations. The study covers the 15 million people aged 30–64 years in the 1960, 1970, 1980/1981 and/or 1990 censuses in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, and the 2.8 million incident cancer cases diagnosed in these people in a follow-up until about 2005. The study was undertaken as a cohort study with linkage of individual records based on the personal identity codes used in all the Nordic countries. In the censuses, information on occupation for each person was provided through free text in self-administered questionnaires. The data were centrally coded and computerised in the statistical offices. For the present study, the original occupational codes were reclassified into 53 occupational categories and one group of economically inactive persons. All Nordic countries have a nation-wide registration of incident cancer cases during the entire study period. For the present study the incident cancer cases were classified into 49 primary diagnostic categories. Some categories have been further divided according to sub-site or morphological type. The observed number of cancer cases in each group of persons defined by country, sex, age, period and occupation was compared with the expected number calculated from the stratum specific person years and the incidence rates for the national population. The result was presented as a standardised incidence ratio, SIR, defined as the observed number of cases divided by the expected number. For all cancers combined (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer), the study showed a wide variation among men from an SIR of 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.66–0.95) in domestic assistants to 1.48 (1.43–1.54) in waiters. The occupations with the highest SIRs also included workers producing beverage and tobacco, seamen and chimney sweeps. Among women, the SIRs varied from 0.58 (0.37–0.87) in seafarers to 1.27 (1.19–1.35) in tobacco workers. Low SIRs were found for farmers, gardeners and teachers. Our study was able to repeat most of the confirmed associations between occupations and cancers. It is known that almost all mesotheliomas are associated with asbestos exposure. Accordingly, plumbers, seamen and mechanics were the occupations with the highest risk in the present study. Mesothelioma was the cancer type showing the largest relative differences between the occupations. Outdoor workers such as fishermen, gardeners and farmers had the highest risk of lip cancer, while the lowest risk was found among indoor workers such as physicians and artistic workers. Studies of nasal cancer have shown increased risks associated with exposure to wood dust, both for those in furniture making and for those exposed exclusively to soft wood like the majority of Nordic woodworkers. We observed an SIR of 1.84 (1.66–2.04) in male and 1.88 (0.90–3.46) in female woodworkers. For nasal adenocarcinoma, the SIR in males was as high as 5.50 (4.60–6.56). Male waiters and tobacco workers had the highest risk of lung cancer, probably attributable to active and passive smoking. Miners and quarry workers also had a high risk, which might be related to their exposure to silica dust and radon daughters. Among women, tobacco workers and engine operators had a more than fourfold risk as compared with the lung cancer risk among farmers, gardeners and teachers. The occupational risk patterns were quite similar in all main histological subtypes of lung cancer. Bladder cancer is considered as one of the cancer types most likely to be related to occupational carcinogens. Waiters had the highest risk of bladder cancer in men and tobacco workers in women, and the low-risk categories were the same ones as for lung cancer. All this can be accounted for by smoking. The second-highest SIRs were among chimney sweeps and hairdressers. Chimney sweeps are exposed to carcinogens such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from the chimney soot, and hairdressers’ work environment is also rich in chemical agents. Exposure to the known hepatocarcinogens, the Hepatitis B virus and aflatoxin, is rare in the Nordic countries, and a large proportion of primary liver cancers can therefore be attributed to alcohol consumption. The highest risks of liver cancer were seen in occupational categories with easy access to alcohol at the work place or with cultural traditions of high alcohol consumption, such as waiters, cooks, beverage workers, journalists and seamen. The risk of colon cancer has been related to sedentary work. The findings in the present study did not strongly indicate any protective role of physical activity. Colon cancer was one of the cancer types showing the smallest relative variation in incidence between occupational categories. The occupational variation in the risk of female breast cancer (the most common cancer type in the present series, 373 361 cases) was larger, and there was a tendency of physically demanding occupations to show SIRs below unity. Women in occupations which require a high level of education have, on average, a higher age at first child-birth and elevated breast cancer incidence. Women in occupational categories with the highest average number of children had markedly lower incidence. In male breast cancer (2 336 cases), which is not affected by the dominating reproductive factors, there was a suggestion of an increase in risk in occupations characterised by shift work. Night-shift work was recently classified as probably carcinogenic, with human evidence based on breast cancer research. The most common cancer among men in the present cohort was prostate cancer (339 973 cases). Despite the huge number of cases, we were unable to demonstrate any occupation-related risks. The observed small occupational variation could be easily explained by varying PSA test frequency. The Nordic countries are known for equity and free and equal access to health care for all citizens. The present study shows that the risk of cancer, even under these circumstances, is highly dependent on the persons position in the society. Direct occupational hazards seem to explain only a small percentage of the observed variation – but still a large number of cases – while indirect factors such as life style changes related to longer education and decreasing physical activity become more important. This publication is the first one from the extensive Nordic Occupational Cancer (NOCCA) project. Subsequent studies will focus on associations between specific work-related factors and cancer diseases with the aim to identify exposure-response patterns. In addition to the cancer data demonstrated in the present publication, the NOCCA project produced Nordic Job Exposure Matrix (described in separate articles in this issue of Acta Oncologica) that transforms information about occupational title histories to quantitative estimates of specific exposures. The third essential component is methodological development related to analysis and interpretation of results based on averaged information of exposures and co-factors in the occupational categories.

Leisure Time Physical Activity and Mortality: A Detailed Pooled Analysis of the Dose-Response Relationship

IMPORTANCE The 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans recommended a minimum of 75 vigorous-intensity or 150 moderate-intensity minutes per week (7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week) of aerobic activity for substantial health benefit and suggested additional benefits by doing more than double this amount. However, the upper limit of longevity benefit or possible harm with more physical activity is unclear. OBJECTIVE To quantify the dose-response association between leisure time physical activity and mortality and define the upper limit of benefit or harm associated with increased levels of physical activity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We pooled data from 6 studies in the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium (baseline 1992-2003). Population-based prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe with self-reported physical activity were analyzed in 2014. A total of 661,137 men and women (median age, 62 years; range, 21-98 years) and 116,686 deaths were included. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with cohort stratification to generate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Median follow-up time was 14.2 years. EXPOSURES Leisure time moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The upper limit of mortality benefit from high levels of leisure time physical activity. RESULTS Compared with individuals reporting no leisure time physical activity, we observed a 20% lower mortality risk among those performing less than the recommended minimum of 7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.78-0.82]), a 31% lower risk at 1 to 2 times the recommended minimum (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.67-0.70]), and a 37% lower risk at 2 to 3 times the minimum (HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.62-0.65]). An upper threshold for mortality benefit occurred at 3 to 5 times the physical activity recommendation (HR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.59-0.62]); however, compared with the recommended minimum, the additional benefit was modest (31% vs 39%). There was no evidence of harm at 10 or more times the recommended minimum (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.59-0.78]). A similar dose-response relationship was observed for mortality due to cardiovascular disease and to cancer. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Meeting the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans minimum by either moderate- or vigorous-intensity activities was associated with nearly the maximum longevity benefit. We observed a benefit threshold at approximately 3 to 5 times the recommended leisure time physical activity minimum and no excess risk at 10 or more times the minimum. In regard to mortality, health care professionals should encourage inactive adults to perform leisure time physical activity and do not need to discourage adults who already participate in high-activity levels.

The global burden of viral hepatitis from 1990 to 2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013. METHODS We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBDs cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86-0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38-1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6-32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1-44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45-0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61-1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2-33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9-45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990. INTERPRETATION Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Leisure time physical activity of moderate to vigorous intensity and mortality: a large pooled cohort analysis.

Analyzing data from over 650,000 individuals, Dr. Steven Moore and colleagues report that greater amounts of leisure-time physical activity were associated with higher life expectancy across a wide range of activity levels and body mass index groups.

Risks of breast and endometrial cancer after estrogen and estrogen-progestin replacement

Objective: We studied the risk of breast and endometrial cancer in a cohort of 11,231 Swedish women prescribed different replacement hormone regimens.Methods: All 10,472 women at risk of developing breast cancer and 8,438 women at risk of endometrial cancer were followed up from the time of the questionnaire in 1987–88 through 1993, by record-linkages to the National Swedish Cancer Registry. Using data from a questionnaire we analyzed the relationships between hormone exposures and cancer risk, with non-compliers and users of less than 1 year as a reference group.Results: For breast cancer, women reporting use of estrogens combined with progestins had evidence of an increased risk relative to women denying intake or taking hormones for less than 1 year; relative risk (RR) = 1.4 (95% confidence interval 0.9–2.3) after 1–6 years of intake, and RR=1.7 (95% CI 1.1–2.6) after more than 6 years. This excess risk seemed confined to recent exposure. We found no association with intake of estrogens alone using non-compliers and short-term takers as the reference group. The risk of invasive endometrial cancer was increased four-fold in women using medium-potency estrogens alone for 6 years or longer, RR = 4.2 (95% CI 2.5–8.4). Women on such long-term progestin-combined treatment had a lower, non-significant, excess risk (RR = 1.4; 95% CI 0.6–3.3).Conclusions: We conclude that long-term recent use of estrogen–progestin combined replacement therapy may increase the risk of breast cancer. Exposure to estrogen alone substantially elevates the risk of endometrial cancer, an increase that can be reduced or perhaps avoided by adding progestins.

Incidence trends of adenocarcinoma of the cervix in 13 European countries

Rapid increases in cervical adenocarcinoma incidence have been observed in Western countries in recent decades. Postulated explanations include an increasing specificity of subtype—the capability to diagnose the disease, an inability of cytologic screening to reduce adenocarcinoma, and heterogeneity in cofactors related to persistent human papillomavirus infection. This study examines the possible contribution of these factors in relation with trends observed in Europe. Age-period-cohort models were fitted to cervical adenocarcinoma incidence trends in women ages <75 in 13 European countries. Age-adjusted adenocarcinoma incidence rates increased throughout Europe, the rate of increase ranging from around 0.5% per annum in Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland to ≥3% in Finland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The increases first affected generations born in the early 1930s through the mid-1940s, with risk invariably higher in women born in the mid-1960s relative to those born 20 years earlier. The magnitude of this risk ratio varied considerably from around 7 in Slovenia to almost unity in France. Declines in period-specific risk were observed in United Kingdom, Denmark, and Sweden, primarily among women ages >30. Whereas increasing specificity of subtype with time may be responsible for some of the increases in several countries, the changing distribution and prevalence of persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus types, alongside an inability to detect cervical adenocarcinoma within screening programs, would accord with the temporal profile observed in Europe. The homogeneity of trends in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma in birth cohort is consistent with the notion that they share a similar etiology irrespective of the differential capability of screen detection. Screening may have had at least some impact in reducing cervical adenocarcinoma incidence in several countries during the 1990s.

Prevalence and determinants of HPV infection among Colombian women with normal cytology

Human papillomavirus is the principal risk factor associated with cervical cancer, the most common malignancy among women in Colombia. We conducted a survey, aiming to report type specific prevalence and determinants of human papillomavirus infection in women with normal cytology. A total of 1859 women from Bogota, Colombia were interviewed and tested for human papillomavirus using a general primer GP5+/GP6+ mediated PCR–EIA. The overall HPV DNA prevalence was 14.8%; 9% of the women were infected by high risk types, 3.1% by low risk types, 2.3% by both high risk/low risk types and 0.4% by uncharacterized types (human papillomavirus X). Thirty-two different human papillomavirus types were detected, being human papillomavirus 16, 58, 56, 81(CP8304) and 18 the most common types. The human papillomavirus prevalence was 26.1% among women younger than 20 years, 2.3% in women aged 45–54 years, and 13.2% in women aged 55 years or more. For low risk types the highest peak of prevalence was observed in women aged 55 years or more. Compared to women aged 35–44 years, women aged less than 20 years had a 10-fold increased risk of having multiple infections. Besides age, there was a positive association between the risk of human papillomavirus infection and number of regular sexual partners and oral contraceptive use. In women aged below 25 years, high educational level and having had casual sexual partners predicted infection risk. In conclusion, there was a broad diversity of human papillomavirus infections with high risk types being the most common types detected. In this population multiplicity of sexual partners and, among young women, high educational level and casual sexual partners seem to determine risk.

Fruit and Vegetables in Cancer Prevention

Abstract: Our aim was to review the epidemiological literature on possible cancer-preventive effects of the consumption of fruits and vegetables in humans, to quantify the effect of high versus low consumption of fruits and vegetables, and to give an overall assessment of the existing evidence. We based our work on an expert meeting conducted by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in 2003. A qualitative reading and evaluation of relevant articles on the cancer-preventive effect of the consumption of fruits and vegetables was made followed by the calculation of the mean relative risk and range for cohort and case-control studies separately. The possible population-preventable fraction for modifying diet in relation to fruit and vegetable consumption was calculated as well as an overall statement about the degree of evidence for the cancer-preventive effect of fruit and vegetable consumption for each cancer site. There is limited evidence for a cancer-preventive effect of the consumption of fruits and vegetables for cancer of the mouth and pharynx, esophagus, stomach, colon-rectum, larynx, lung, ovary (vegetables only), bladder (fruit only), and kidney. There is inadequate evidence for a cancer-preventive effect of the consumption of fruits and vegetables for all other sites. Applying this range of risk difference to the range of prevalence of low intake, the preventable fraction for low fruit and vegetable intake would fall into the range of 5–12%. It is important to recognize that this is only a crude range of estimates and that the proportion of cancers that might be preventable by increasing fruit and vegetable intake may vary beyond this range for specific cancer sites and across different regions of the world.