Elisabeth Sadoulet

Social articulation as a condition for equitable growth

Abstract A formal model is developed to establish the structural conditions that result in growth being progressive or regressive on the personal distribution of income. These conditions include (1) intersectoral investment priorities between wage goods and luxuries, and (2) the state of the levels and distribution of incomes which determines the social origin of demand for different sectors of the economy. The particular combinations of investment and income structures that result in equalizing (social articulation) or unequalizing growth (social disarticulation) are derived. We show empirically that the structural conditions that allowed rapid but unequalizing growth in Brazil between 1968 and 1977 were those of social disarticulation.

The partitioning of long haul air traffic—A study in multinomial choice

Abstract Air travellers in some markets can choose from amongst a variety of fare types. These fare types vary in their prices and in associated restrictions and conditions imposed on travel. In order to assess the impact of fare packages on traffic distributions and revenues, it is necessary to be able to model the choice process and to segment the total traffic into the different fare types available at any time. This paper presents a multinomial choice model designed for that purpose. It is a multinomial logit model with modifications designed to overcome the restrictions of the axiom of independence of irrelevant alternatives, which is believed not to hold in this case. The results of the calibration using traffic data for the North Atlantic for a period of seven years confirm the suitability of the logit model for multiple choice situations in transportation.

Discussion on Part II

Commenting on the paper, Professor Dasgupta noted that, instead of combining countries as they did, the authors could have classified the countries into different types of economies, i.e., those characterised by industrial-led growth into one group, those promoting both agricultural sector-led growth and industrial sector-led growth into another, and those with agricultural sector-led growth into another, and those with agricultural sector-led growth into a third. He asked if the authors had estimated an equity coefficient. He pointed out that the authors wrote about how equity helped produce agricultural growth, but did not write about how agricultural growth helped produce equity. Reductions in infant mortality and increases in levels of income were indicators of equitable growth. Their main conclusion that the greater the inequity of the income distribution the less the income-increasing effect will be was insufficient for policy purposes. Bruce has pointed out the importance of land reform in promoting growth and Mellor the importance of the demand for non-tradable commodities in increasing growth.

Investment priorities and income distribution: The case of Brazil in 1970

Abstract In this paper, we study the conditions (ie., social disarticulation) by which choices in government policy priorities toward sectoral production may instigate increased income inequality. A dynamic multisectoral model is proposed in which the main link that is put forward is the necessary correspondence between rapid growth of production of certain types of goods and the expansion of demand for those same goods in the internal market. Application to Brazil illustrates the possibilities of such a tool for economic analysis and shows that the regressive wage policy implemented in Brazil was indeed consistent with that countrys economic priorities and policy emphases.