Elissaios Papyrakis

Resource-Abundance and Economic Growth in the U.S

It is a common assumption that regions within the same country converge to approximately the same steady-state income levels. The so-called absolute convergence hypothesis focuses on initial income levels to account for the variability in income growth among regions. Empirical data seem to support the absolute convergence hypothesis for U.S. states, but the data also show that natural resource-abundance is a significant negative determinant of growth. We find that natural resource abundance decreases investment, schooling, openness, and R&D expenditure and increases corruption, and we show that these effects can fully explain the negative effect of natural resource abundance on growth.

Natural Resources: A Blessing or a Curse?

We examine empirically the effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth. We find that natural resources have a negative impact on growth when considered in isolation, but a positive impact on growth when including in the analysis other variables such as corruption, investments, openness, terms of trade, and schooling, and treating these variables as independent. However, when we take account of the effect of natural resources on the other variables and furthermore consider the indirect effect on growth, that is, when we examine possible transmission channels, we find a strong negative effect of natural resources on growth. Finally, we calculate the relative importance of each transmission channel.

Natural resources, innovation and growth

This paper investigates the connection between resource abundance and innovation, as a transmission mechanism that can elucidate part of the resource curse hypothesis; i.e. the observed negative impact of resource wealth on income growth. We develop a variation of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model with endogenous growth to explain the phenomenon. In this model, consumers trade off leisure versus consumption, and firms trade off innovation efforts versus manufacturing. For this model, we show that an increase in resource income frustrates economic growth in two ways: directly by reducing work effort and indirectly by inducing a smaller proportion of the labor force to engage in innovation.

Are the economic costs of (non-)stabilising the atmosphere prohibitive? A comment

In a recent paper in this journal, Azar and Schneider present carbon abatement costs as a few years delay in an increasing path of welfare and they suggest the adoption of stricter abatement policies to avoid climate change. We show that the same argument can be used to derive the opposite conclusion. In most studies, not only abatement costs, but also climate change costs represent a small loss in future welfare. The reason for this is the implicit assumption of perfect long-term substitutability between man-made and environmental goods that many of these models adopt. We argue that, instead of downplaying the costs of abatement measures, we should try to better understand the substitutability possibilities between man-made and environmental goods, that is, the character of long-term costs of climate change.

Resource windfalls, innovation, and growth

This paper explores the connection between resource abundance and innovation, as a transmission mechanism that can elucidate part of the resource curse hypothesis, i.e. the observed negative impact of resource wealth on income growth. We develop a variation of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model with endogenous growth to explain the phenomenon. In this model, consumers trade off leisure versus consumption, and firms trade off innovation efforts versus manufacturing. We show that an increase in resource income frustrates economic growth in two ways: directly by reducing work effort and indirectly by inducing a smaller proportion of the labor force to engage in innovation.

Natural resources, investment and long-term income.

We study the negative correlation between natural resource-abundance and long-term income focusing on the savings-investment channel. We first present empirical evidence on this channel and then develop an OverLapping-Generations (OLG) model to study the issue. In this model, savings adjust downwards to income from natural resources, and investment in capital contributes to knowledge creation, a feature based on endogenous growth theory. We analyze the link from resource income future income through savings and investment. Natural resources have two counteracting effects on income. In the short term, resource wealth augments income, but in the long-term, it decreases income through a crowding-out effect on capital and knowledge. We discuss different scenarios under which the resource curse is most likely to take place.

Institutional Explanations of Economic Development: The Role of Precious Metals

Recent research has emphasized the influence of colonization on the institutional development and economic performance in former European colonies. Where European colonizers settled, they replicated the investment-conducive institutions found at home. It has been argued that a harsh disease environment and a highly urbanized native population worked against colonization. We show evidence for another significant element explaining the endogenous character of colonization strategies and the formation of institutions. We find the presence of precious metals, gold and silver, to imply an increase in settlements, and an improvement in institutional quality, even when correcting for settlements. Highly valued gold and silver reserves attracted Europeans in large numbers and resulted in an institutional upgrade of mineral-rich areas.