Elizabeth A. Hunter

Demographic Outcomes and Ecosystem Implications of Giant Tortoise Reintroduction to Española Island, Galapagos

Restoration of extirpated species via captive breeding has typically relied on population viability as the primary criterion for evaluating success. This criterion is inadequate when species reintroduction is undertaken to restore ecological functions and interactions. Herein we report on the demographic and ecological outcomes of a five-decade-long population restoration program for a critically endangered species of “ecosystem engineer”: the endemic Española giant Galapagos tortoise (Chelonoidis hoodensis). Our analysis of complementary datasets on tortoise demography and movement, tortoise-plant interactions and Española Island’s vegetation history indicated that the repatriated tortoise population is secure from a strictly demographic perspective: about half of tortoises released on the island since 1975 were still alive in 2007, in situ reproduction is now significant, and future extinction risk is low with or without continued repatriation. Declining survival rates, somatic growth rates, and body condition of repatriates suggests, however, that resources for continued population growth are increasingly limited. Soil stable carbon isotope analyses indicated a pronounced shift toward woody plants in the recent history of the island’s plant community, likely a legacy of changes in competitive relations between woody and herbaceous plants induced by now-eradicated feral goats and prolonged absence of tortoises. Woody plants are of concern because they block tortoise movement and hinder recruitment of cactus–a critical resource for tortoises. Tortoises restrict themselves to remnant cactus patches and areas of low woody plant density in the center of the island despite an apparent capacity to colonize a far greater range, likely because of a lack of cactus elsewhere on the island. We conclude that ecosystem-level criteria for success of species reintroduction efforts take much longer to achieve than population-level criteria; moreover, reinstatement of endangered species as fully functioning ecosystem engineers may often require large-scale habitat restoration efforts in concert with population restoration.

Prospects for predicting changes to coastal wetland bird populations due to accelerated sea level rise

Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) is likely to cause considerable changes to estuarine and other coastal wetlands. Efforts to forecast the effects of SLR on coastal wetland vegetation communities should be useful in making predictions for individual species that depend upon those communities. However, considerable uncertainty exists when predicting a chain of events that passes from the global climate to local effects to implications for a single species. One component of this uncertainty is the classification resolution used by SLR landscape change models such as the Sea Level Affects Marshes Model (SLAMM). To isolate and assess the effects of this kind of uncertainty on species-level SLR prediction, we analyzed surveys of birds and plants in the lower Altamaha River and its estuary in Georgia, USA. For 19 marsh and forest bird species, we tested the predictive value of three classes of covariates of site occupancy: (1) field-measured habitat variables and spatial information, (2) information available from a SLAMM map, including the spatial configuration of the SLAMM habitat classes, and (3) SLAMM habitat class alone. We found that the predictive ability of occupancy models built from these three kinds of information varies widely among species. We therefore suggest criteria for classifying species according to the amount of detail necessary to describe their habitat niche, and thus to maximize the accuracy of predictive models. We point out that for species with habitat requirements that can be represented well by SLAMM classes, such as the Clapper Rail, forecasts of SLR-induced population change are probably feasible. For species with more narrow habitat needs, however, such as the Seaside Sparrow, reasonable predictions of SLR effects may not be possible without further refinement of SLR landscape change models. We suggest that improved thematic resolution of such models should be a priority, if the implications of SLR models for individual species are to be ascertained fully.

Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea‐level rise

Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving natures stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present-day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low-lying coasts from CNS planning could include coastal ecosystems in regional conservation strategies.