Elizabeth A. Ritchie

Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on the Intensity and Structure of Numerically Simulated Hurricanes

A series of numerical simulations of tropical cyclones in idealized large-scale environments is performed to examine the effects of vertical wind shear on the structure and intensity of hurricanes. The simulations are performed using the nonhydrostatic Pennsylvania State University‐National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth-generation Mesoscale Model using a 5-km fine mesh and fully explicit representation of moist processes. When large-scale vertical shears are applied to mature tropical cyclones, the storms quickly develop wavenumber one asymmetries with upward motion and rainfall concentrated on the left side of the shear vector looking downshear, in agreement with earlier studies. The asymmetries develop due to the storm’s response to imbalances caused by the shear. The storms in shear weaken with time and eventually reach an approximate steady-state intensity that is well below their theoretical maximum potential intensity. As expected, the magnitude of the weakening increases with increasing shear. All of the storms experience time lags between the imposition of the large-scale shear and the resulting rise in the minimum central pressure. While the lag is at most a few hours when the storm is placed in very strong (15 m s21) shear, storms in weaker shears experience much longer lag times, with th e5ms 21 shear case showing no signs of weakening until more than 36 h after the shear is applied. These lags suggest that the storm intensity is to some degree predictable from observations of largescale shear changes. In all cases both the development of the asymmetries in core structure and the subsequent weakening of the storm occur before any resolvable tilt of the storm’s vertical axis occurs. It is hypothesized that the weakening of the storm occurs via the following sequence of events: First, the shear causes the structure of the eyewall region to become highly asymmetric throughout the depth of the storm. Second, the asymmetries in the upper troposphere, where the storm circulation is weaker, become sufficiently strong that air with high values of potential vorticity and equivalent potential temperature are mixed outward rather than into the eye. This allows the shear to ventilate the eye resulting in a loss of the warm core at upper levels, which causes the central pressure to rise, weakening the entire storm. The maximum potential vorticity becomes concentrated in saturated portions of the eyewall cloud aloft rather than in the eye. Third, the asymmetric features at upper levels are advected by the shear, causing the upper portions of the vortex to tilt approximately downshear. The storm weakens from the top down, reaching an approximate steady-state intensity when the ventilated layer can descend no farther due to the increasing strength and stability of the vortex at lower levels.

Effects of Environmental Flow upon Tropical Cyclone Structure

Abstract Numerical simulations of tropical-cyclone-like vortices are performed to analyze the effects of unidirectional vertical wind shear and translational flow upon the organization of convection within a hurricane’s core region and upon the intensity of the storm. A series of dry and moist simulations is performed using the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) with idealized initial conditions. The dry simulations are designed to determine the patterns of forced ascent that occur as the vortex responds to imposed vertical wind shear and translational flow, and the mechanisms that modulate the vertical velocity field are explored. The moist simulations are initialized with the same initial conditions as the dry runs but with a cumulus parameterization and explicit moisture scheme activated. The moist simulations are compared to the dry runs in order to test the hypothesis that the forced vertical circulation modes modulate the convection...

Large-Scale Patterns Associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific

Abstract Five characteristic, low-level, large-scale dynamical patterns associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific basin are examined along with their capacity to generate the type of mesoscale convective systems that precede genesis. An 8-yr analysis set for the region is used to identify, and create composites for, the five characteristic patterns of monsoon shear line, monsoon confluence region, monsoon gyre, easterly waves, and Rossby energy dispersion. This brings out the common processes that contribute to tropical cyclogenesis within that pattern, which are described in detail. A 3-yr set of satellite data is then used to analyze the mesoscale convective system activity for all cases of genesis in that period and to stratify based on the above large-scale patterns. It is found that mesoscale convective systems develop in all cases of genesis except one. Seventy percent of cases developed mesoscale convective systems at more than one time during the genesis period and 44% of ...

Scale Interactions during the Formation of Typhoon Irving

The development of Typhoon Irving is investigated using a variety of data, including special research aircraft data from the Tropical Cyclone Motion (TCM-92) experiment, objective analyses, satellite data, and traditional surface and sounding data. The development process is treated as a dry-adiabatic vortex dynamics problem, and it is found that environmental and mesoscale dynamics mutually enhance each other in a cooperative interaction during cyclone formation. Synoptic-scale interactions result in the evolution of the hostile environment toward more favorable conditions for storm development. Mesoscale interactions with the low-level, large-scale circulations and with other midlevel, mesoscale features result in development of vorticity in the midlevels and enhancement of the low-level vorticity associated with the developing surface cyclone. Multiple developments of mesoscale convective systems after the storm reaches tropical depression strength suggests both an increase in low-level confluence and a tendency toward recurrent development of associated mesoscale convective vortices. This is observed in both aircraft data and satellite imagery where subsequent interactions, including mergers with the low-level, tropical depression vortex, are observed. A contour dynamics experiment suggests that the movement of mesoscale convective systems in satellite imagery corresponds well to the movement of their associated midlevel vortices. Results from a simple baroclinic experiment show that the midlevel vortices affect the large-scale, low-level circulation in two ways: 1) initially, interactions between midlevel vortices produce a combined vortex of greater depth; 2) interaction between midlevel vortices and the low-level circulation produces a development downward of the midlevel vorticity. This strengthens the surface vortex and develops a more cohesive vortex that extends from the surface through the midtroposphere.

Mesoscale Interactions in Tropical Cyclone Genesis

With the multitude of cloud clusters over tropical oceans, it has been perplexing that so few develop into tropical cyclones. The authors postulate that a major obstacle has been the complexity of scale interactions, particularly those on the mesoscale, which have only recently been observable. While there are well-known climatological requirements, these are by no means sufficient. A major reason for this rarity is the essentially stochastic nature of the mesoscale interactions that precede and contribute to cyclone development. Observations exist for only a few forming cases. In these, the moist convection in the preformation environment is organized into mesoscale convective systems, each of which have associated mesoscale potential vortices in the midlevels. Interactions between these systems may lead to merger, growth to the surface, and development of both the nascent eye and inner rainbands of a tropical cyclone. The process is essentially stochastic, but the degree of stochasticity can be reduced by the continued interaction of the mesoscale systems or by environmental influences. For example a monsoon trough provides a region of reduced deformation radius, which substantially improves the efficiency of mesoscale vortex interactions and the amplitude of the merged vortices. Further, a strong monsoon trough provides a vertical wind shear that enables long-lived midlevel mesoscale vortices that are able to maintain, or even redevelop, the associated convective system. The authors develop this hypothesis by use of a detailed case study of the formation of Tropical Cyclone Oliver observed during TOGA COARE (1993). In this case, two dominant mesoscale vortices interacted with a monsoon trough to separately produce a nascent eye and a major rainband. The eye developed on the edge of the major convective system, and the associated atmospheric warming was provided almost entirely by moist processes in the upper atmosphere, and by a combination of latent heating and adiabatic subsidence in the lower and middle atmosphere. The importance of mesoscale interactions is illustrated further by brief reference to the development of two typhoons in the western North Pacific.

Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Phasing between the Upper-Level Trough and Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Whether the tropical cyclone remnants will become a significant extratropical cyclone during the reintensification stage of extratropical transition is a complex problem because of the uncertainty in the tropical cyclone, the midlatitude circulation, the subtropical anticyclone, and the nonlinear interactions among these systems. In a previous study, the authors simulated the impact of the strength of the midlatitude circulation trough without changing its phasing with the tropical cyclone. In this study, the impact of phasing is simulated by fixing the initial position and amplitude of the midlatitude trough and varying the initial position of the tropical cyclone. The peak intensity of the extratropical cyclone following the extratropical transition is strongly dependent on the phasing, which leads to different degrees of interaction with the midlatitude baroclinic zone. Many aspects of the simulated circulation, temperature, and precipitation fields appear quite realistic for the reintensifyin...

Simulations of the Transformation Stage of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

Abstract The physical mechanisms associated with the transformation stage of the extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone are simulated with a mesoscale model using initial environmental conditions that approximate the mean circulations defined by Klein et al. The tropical cyclone structural changes simulated by the U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model Prediction System mesoscale model during the three steps of transformation compare well with available observations. During step 1 of transformation when the tropical cyclone is just beginning to interact with the midlatitude baroclinic zone, the main environmental factor that affects the tropical cyclone structure appears to be the decreased sea surface temperature. The movement of the tropical cyclone over the lower sea surface temperatures results in reduced surface heat and moisture fluxes, which weakens the core convection and the intensity decreases. During step 2 of transformation, the low-level temperature gradient and vertical wind shear ...

The North American Monsoon Model Assessment Project: Integrating Numerical Modeling into a Field-based Process Study

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 1423 AFFILIATIONS: GUTZLER AND RITCHIE—University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico; KIM, HIGGINS, MO, SCHEMM, AND SONG—Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland; KANAMITSU—Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California; JUANG, MITCHELL, AND YANG—Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland; PEGION— Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), Beltsville, Maryland; SCHUBERT—Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland *Current affiliation: Climate Prediction Division, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. David S. Gutzler, Earth and Planetary Sciences Department, University of New Mexico MSC03-2040, Albuquerque, NM 87131 E-mail: gutzler@unm.edu DOI:10.1175/BAMS-86-10-1423

Objective Measures of Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity Change From Remotely Sensed Infrared Image Data

An objective technique for obtaining features associated with the shape and dynamics of cloud structures embedded in tropical cyclones from satellite infrared images is described. As the tropical cyclone develops from an unstructured cloud cluster and intensifies, the cloud structures become more axisymmetric about an identified reference point. Using variables derived from remotely sensed data, the technique calculates the gradient of the brightness temperatures to measure the level of symmetry of each structure, which characterizes the degree of cloud organization of the tropical cyclone. The results presented show that the technique provides an objective measure of both the structure and the intensity of the tropical cyclone from early stages, through intensification, maturity, and dissipation.

The influence of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone remnants on the southwestern United States

Abstract Forty-three eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone remnants with varying impact on the southwestern United States during the period 1992–2005 are investigated. Of these, 35 remnants (81%) brought precipitation to some part of the southwestern United States and the remaining 8 remnants (19%) had precipitation that was almost entirely restricted to Mexico, although cloud cover did advect over the southwestern United States in some of these cases. Although the tropical cyclone–strength winds rapidly diminish upon making landfall, these systems still carry a large quantity of tropical moisture and, upon interaction with mountainous topography, are found to drop up to 30% of the local annual precipitation. Based on common rainfall patterns and large-scale circulation features, the tropical cyclones are grouped into five categories. These include a northern recurving pattern that is more likely to bring rainfall to the southwestern United States; a southern recurving pattern that brings rainfall across...