Elizabeth A. Silber

A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors

Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (±100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×1012 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations based on the effects of nuclear weapons—almost always used with this technique—overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.

Radar-Enabled Recovery of the Sutter’s Mill Meteorite, a Carbonaceous Chondrite Regolith Breccia

The Meteor That Fell to Earth In April 2012, a meteor was witnessed over the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California. Jenniskens et al. (p. 1583) used a combination of photographic and video images of the fireball coupled with Doppler weather radar images to facilitate the rapid recovery of meteorite fragments. A comprehensive analysis of some of these fragments shows that the Sutters Mill meteorite represents a new type of carbonaceous chondrite, a rare and primitive class of meteorites that contain clues to the origin and evolution of primitive materials in the solar system. The unexpected and complex nature of the fragments suggests that the surfaces of C-class asteroids, the presumed parent bodies of carbonaceous chondrites, are more complex than previously assumed. Analysis of this rare meteorite implies that the surfaces of C-class asteroids can be more complex than previously assumed. Doppler weather radar imaging enabled the rapid recovery of the Sutter’s Mill meteorite after a rare 4-kiloton of TNT–equivalent asteroid impact over the foothills of the Sierra Nevada in northern California. The recovered meteorites survived a record high-speed entry of 28.6 kilometers per second from an orbit close to that of Jupiter-family comets (Tisserand’s parameter = 2.8 ± 0.3). Sutter’s Mill is a regolith breccia composed of CM (Mighei)–type carbonaceous chondrite and highly reduced xenolithic materials. It exhibits considerable diversity of mineralogy, petrography, and isotope and organic chemistry, resulting from a complex formation history of the parent body surface. That diversity is quickly masked by alteration once in the terrestrial environment but will need to be considered when samples returned by missions to C-class asteroids are interpreted.

An estimate of the terrestrial influx of large meteoroids from infrasonic measurements

[1] The influx rate of meteoroids hitting the Earth is most uncertain at sizes of � 10 m. Here we make use of historical data of large bolides recorded infrasonically over a period of 13 years by the U.S. Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) to refine the terrestrial influx rate at these sizes. Several independent techniques were applied to these airwave data to calculate bolide kinetic energies. At low energies our flux results are within a factor of two in agreement with previous estimates. For 5–20-m diameter objects, however, our measurements of the cumulative number of Earth-impacting meteoroids are as much as an order of magnitude higher than estimates from telescopic surveys of near-Earth objects and satellite-detected bolides impacting the Earth. The precise cause of this disagreement is unclear, though we propose several possible explanations. From our infrasound study, our best estimate for the cumulative annual flux of impactors with energy equal to or greater than E (in kilotons of TNT equivalent) is N = 4.5 E � 0.6 .

Optical observations of meteors generating infrasound—I: Acoustic signal identification and phenomenology

Abstract We analyse infrasound signals from 71 bright meteors/fireballs simultaneously detected by video to investigate the phenomenology and characteristics of meteor-generated near-field infrasound ( 117° from the trajectory heading are most likely generated by a spherical shock, while infrasound produced by the meteors with ray launch angles ≤117° can be attributed to both a cylindrical line source and a spherical shock. We find that meteors preferentially produce infrasound toward the end of their trails with a smaller number showing a preference for mid-trail production. Meteors producing multiple infrasound arrivals show a strong infrasound source height skewness to the end of trails and are much more likely to be associated with optical flares. We find that about 1% of all our optically-recorded meteors have associated detected infrasound and estimate that regional meteor infrasound events should occur on the order of once per week and dominate in numbers over infrasound associated with more energetic (but rarer) bolides. While a significant fraction of our meteors generating infrasound (~1/4 of single arrivals) are produced by fragmentation events, we find no instances where acoustic radiation is detectable more than about 60° beyond the ballistic regime at our meteoroid sizes (grams to tens of kilograms) emphasizing the strong anisotropy in acoustic radiation for meteors which are dominated by cylindrical line source geometry, even in the presence of fragmentation.

Optical observations of meteors generating infrasound: Weak shock theory and validation

We have recorded a data set of 24 cm sized meteoroids detected simultaneously by video and infrasound to critically examine the ReVelle (1974) weak shock meteor infrasound model. We find that the effect of gravity wave perturbations to the wind field and updated absorption coefficients in the linear regime on the initial value of the blast radius (R0), which is the strongly nonlinear zone of shock propagation near the body and corresponds to energy deposition per path length, is relatively small (  0.7 s) appropriate to centimeter-sized meteoroids. Our observations suggest that meteors having blast radii as small as 1 m are detectable infrasonically at the ground, an order of magnitude smaller than previously considered.

Infrasound and seismic detections associated with the 7 September 2015 Bangkok fireball

A bright fireball was reported at 01:43:35 UTC on September 7, 2015 at a height of

On shock waves and the role of hyperthermal chemistry in the early diffusion of overdense meteor trains

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V-type near-Earth asteroids: Dynamics, close encounters and impacts with terrestrial planets†

∼30 km above 14.5