Elizabeth Ackerley

The Criminal Careers of Arsonists

This paper replicates a 1973 study of the criminal careers of arsonists (Soothill and Pope, 1973). It compares the original series of those convicted at the high court of arson in England and Wales in 1951 (n=74) with three new series of all those convicted in any court in England and Wales in 1963-5 (n=1352), in 1980-1 (n=5584) and in 2000-1 (n=3335). The profile of convicted arsonists has significantly shifted over the years, with an increasing proportion of females and a rise in the average age of both males and females. Previous convictions for violence and criminal damage (including arson) are much more evident in the later series. The proportion of medical disposals has declined, while the 1:2 ratio for custodial/non-custodial sentences has remained constant. With a 20-year follow-up the proportion reconvicted for arson has more than doubled – from 4.5% in the 1951 series to 10.7% for the 1980-1 series. The indications are that the situation in relation to arson has deteriorated significantly over the past forty years.

Homicide and the Media: Identifying the Top Cases in The Times

Recent work on homicide and the media has focused on the United States. This study considers the British context and examines the coverage of homicide by a leading British newspaper (The Times) over a period of 23 years (1977 to 1999 inclusive). The focus is on the newspaper coverage of the top cases each year and over the whole period. This approach allows for an exploration of the hierarchy within ‘media–homicides’ that are distinguished in terms of ‘mega–cases’, ‘mezzo–cases’ and ‘routine cases’. Hence, this issue is shown to be a more complex social and cultural phenomenon than is usually understood through the traditional binary ‘reported–non reported’ approach. The importance of unusualness and cultural context is emphasised in fully understanding how homicides become, particularly, mega–cases.

The persistent offenders debate: A focus on temporal changes

Using birth cohort conviction records, this study estimates that around 640,000 males and 54,000 females aged 46 years or under had been ‘persistent offenders’ at some point in their lives. These figures represent 4.7 per cent and 0.4 per cent of the relevant male and female population respectively. Both male and female offenders who are first convicted at a young age are much more likely to become persistent offenders than their older counterparts. While young male offenders are at much greater risk of becoming persistent offenders than females, young female offenders are becoming increasingly more like males. It is vital that gender differences are not neglected. While the proportion of young offenders who become persistent is increasing, the proportions are fairly stable for offenders aged 20 and over. However, the numbers of both general and persistent young offenders show recent dramatic falls not evident among older offenders. For males aged 20 and over, the numbers are largely stable, while the numbers fall much less sharply for these older females. The present climate of focusing on younger offenders, especially persistent ones, may be having the desired effect of reduced numbers, but it is important that the ongoing situation with these older offenders is not overlooked.

Multiple Cohort Data, Delinquent Generations, and Criminal Careers

This article investigates the effect of birth cohort membership on the risk of criminal conviction. The data used are taken from the England andWales Offenders Index and include official conviction histories of six birth cohorts of offenders. Particular problems related to the analysis of official conviction data are discussed, including the need to take account of temporal changes in the age-crime curve caused by social change and criminal policy and the need to be aware of identification issues. A Poisson log-linear model approach is taken. Including data on previous convictions can help explain heterogeneity. An interaction of previous convictions with yearwas found to be important, indicating that additional previous convictions have a greater effect on the conviction rate for more recent years. There is a weak cohort effect for males and a very weak effect for females, after controlling for age, year, previous convictions, and interactions between them.

Criminal convictions among children and young adults Changes over time

This study focuses on court conviction rates—that is, the numbers and proportion of the population in England and Wales who are convicted of a crime between the ages of 10—25. Data on over 47,000 male and 10,000 female offenders for six specific birth cohorts (those born in 1953, 1958, 1963, 1968, 1973 and 1978) were extracted from the Offenders Index. We related convictions in three age groups (10—15, 16—20, 21—25) to population estimates for these age groups. Striking differences in the conviction rates over time were observed for both males and females. There is a remarkable decline among the 10—15 age group for more recent cohorts which echoes the increasing use of court diversionary procedures in this age group. There is no corresponding increase in conviction rates for the later age groups. These figures suggest that efforts in the 1980s and early 1990s to divert offenders away from court convictions have been successful, and that such diversionary schemes need to be encouraged.