Elizabeth J. Zechmeister

Political Representation in Latin America: A Study of Elite-Mass Congruence in Nine Countries

The authors combine elite and mass survey data to create indicators of representation for nine nations: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Uruguay. For the first time, a quantified measure of the extent to which political parties represent voters’ policy preferences in these countries is offered. The authors then examine the political, social, and economic correlates of representation. Consistent with extant literature and theory, they find that party system institutionalization and socioeconomic development are positively related to representation. On the other hand, drastic liberalization efforts seem to be associated with lower levels of representation. Furthermore, the authors find that leftist parties contribute to the representative structures of political systems. They also find that perceptions of fraud in an electoral system are correlated at a fairly high level with the indicator of representation: Citizens’ subjective perceptions of a system are consistent with its reality.

The Varying Political Toll of Concerns About Corruption in Good Versus Bad Economic Times

Under what conditions do citizens connect concerns about corruption to their evaluations of sitting executives? In contrast to conventional scholarship positing a direct, negative relationship between corruption and political support, we build on a small but suggestive body of research to argue that this relationship is conditional on economic context. We test this claim with national survey data collected in 19 presidential systems as part of the AmericasBarometer 2010 study. Using both fixed effects ordinary least squares and hierarchical linear regression analyses, we show that individuals facing bad (good) collective economic conditions apply a higher (lower) penalty to presidential approval for perceived political corruption. This result holds across both an individual-level indicator of national economic assessment and a regional economic measure; we further test, and find less substantial results for, the moderating influence of personal economic conditions on the political toll of corruption perceptions.

Sex, Stereotypes, and Security: A Study of the Effects of Terrorist Threat on Assessments of Female Leadership

This project examines the extent to which terrorist threat shapes affect assessments of female political leadership and whether these assessments are affected by the characteristics of the evaluated leader. Using experimental and survey data, we find that conditions of terrorist threat increase the expression of certain gender-trait stereotypes and negatively affect evaluations of female Democratic leaders. Our analysis further suggests that Republican women and/or those with strong national security experience may be able to overcome the otherwise negative implications of security threats and gender-trait stereotypes.

Can Canadians Take a Hint? The (In)Effectiveness of Party Labels as Information Shortcuts in Canada

This paper represents a first look at the usefulness of Canadian political parties as information shortcuts. We present results from a student experiment that tested whether knowing a party’s position on an issue influenced opinion formation. We find that, contrary to the findings in other countries, Canadian political parties are not consistently useful as information cues. The Liberal Party cue is hardly useful, and the Conservative Party cue can be effective, but appears to push partisans toward a more liberal stance on selected opinions. Only the NDP cue appears to fulfill the cue-providing role that the literature expects. Acknowledgements. We would like to thank the IGA Junior Faculty Research Program at UC Davis for providing funding for the project, and Anna Esselment and Josh Morgan for research assistance. Studies of Canadian politics have begun to acknowledge a significant trend toward lower political information levels in Canada (Gidengil et al. 2004, Howe 2003, Fournier 2002). If this is so, how are Canadians determining their political preferences? In common conceptions of democratic governance, citizens elect representatives who reflect their policy preferences (e.g., Ranney 1962). Yet for electoral mandates to be meaningful, citizens must first have opinions on relevant political issues, which requires that the citizens have information. How can citizens overcome this deficiency? Or do they? Of the many suggestions that have been put forward (see Gidengil et al. 2004, ch. 4 for a review), the possibility of using party labels as information shortcuts has yet to be evaluated. It is possible that Canadians could use party labels, and the ideological information they contain, as cues to develop their own opinions. This idea was promoted by Downs (1957) and has found significant support in the American context (Popkin 1994). Party labels are purportedly one of the most useful heuristic aids because they are very accessible and “travel so well” across different decision domains (Huckfeldt et al. 1999). In the United States, party labels help individuals to predict the issue positions of political candidates, determine and organize their own issue positions, and “correctly” select political leaders without possessing “encyclopedic” levels of information (e.g., Downs 1957; Huckfeldt et al. 1999; Lau and Redlawsk 2001; Lodge and Hamill 1986; Popkin 1994; Sniderman, Brody, and Tetlock 1991). In the Canadian context, Jenson (1976) suggested that partisan identification should be viewed through the lens of party labels as voting shortcuts, but despite musings about the possibility of such an information shortcut being utilized by voters (see Gidengil et al. 2004), there has yet to be a systematic investigation of its effectiveness. This paper addresses this gap in the literature, using data collected from an experimental study implemented in the spring of 2004 that sought to understand if and how party labels (Liberal, Conservative, NDP) are used as political cues across a range of political issues by a selected group of Canadian citizens. Extant Theoretical Perspectives In an early study of the United States, Converse found that citizens’ opinions on policy items were unrelated to each other, that people failed to respond to many pressing issues, and that opinions over time were inconsistent (Converse 1964). The implication of these and related findings was that the electorate was hardly capable of making reasonable political decisions. Other research, much of it coming later in time, challenged these claims by arguing that citizens could make reasonable choices with limited information if they rely on information short-cuts, or heuristics (e.g., Downs 1957; Hinich and Munger 1994; McKelvey and Ordeshook 1985, 1986; Neuman 1986; Page and Shapiro 1992; Popkin 1994; Sniderman, Brody and Tetlock 1991). One potential heuristic aid, universally found in competitive party systems, is the party label. Beginning with Downs (1957), it has been argued that one of the primary purposes of political parties is to provide an information short-cut for voters, to help them understand the issue positions and/or ideology of political actors. The utility of party labels has been investigated in a variety of domains, primarily in the U.S. context. In terms of voting, people rely on partisan cues in the voting booth (Lau and Redlawsk 2001; Popkin 1994; Rahn 1993), especially in low information elections (Schaffner and Streb 2002; Squire and Smith 1988). As long as candidates hold issue positions consistent with those of their party, voters are likely to select the “correct” candidate if they are told the party of the candidate (Lau and Redlawsk 2001; Rahn 1993). Furthermore, party cues can help citizens to predict the issue positions of candidates and to place them on an ideological spectrum (e.g., Conover and Feldman 1989; Huckfeldt et al. 1999; Kahn 1994; Koch 2001; Lodge and

Individual and Contextual Constraints on Ideological Labels in Latin America

Ideological labels are theoretically useful tools with which individuals comprehend, discuss, and engage in politics. Their actual significance, however, varies. We assess how select individual and contextual factors systematically affect individuals’ use and understandings of the classic left–right dimension in Latin America. Using data from the 2010 AmericasBarometer survey, we show that although education, political interest, and political sophistication help citizens place themselves on the ideological continuum, context also matters such that polarization (positively), fragmentation (negatively), and volatility (negatively) affect left–right response. Our analyses further demonstrate that, generally speaking, placements on the left–right scale are linked to individuals’ stances on economic, democratic, religious, and social issues, but context matters in important ways here as well. In short, ideological labels in Latin America hold important potential for orienting citizens within the political arena, but their utility is constrained in important ways at both the individual and contextual levels.

Terrorist Threat, Male Stereotypes, and Candidate Evaluations

How does the threat of terrorism affect evaluations of female (vs. male) political leaders, and do these effects vary by the politician’s partisanship? Using two national surveys, we document a propensity for the U.S. public to prefer male Republican leadership the most in times of security threat, and female Democratic leadership the least. We theorize a causal process by which terrorist threat influences the effect of stereotypes on candidate evaluations conditional on politician partisanship. We test this framework with an original experiment:a nationally representative sample was presented with a mock election that varied the threat context and the gender and partisanship of the candidates. We find that masculine stereotypes have a negative influence on both male and female Democratic candidates in good times (thus reaffirming the primacy of party stereotypes), but only on the female Democratic candidate when terror threat is primed. Republican candidates—both male and female—are unaffected by masculine stereotypes, regardless of the threat environment.

From the Gap to the Chasm Gender and Participation among Non-Hispanic Whites and Mexican Americans

This article focuses on gender and ethnic inequalities in political participation across non-Hispanic whites and Mexican Americans. Using a mainstream model of participation, the authors find that differences in the levels of resources, motivations, and opportunities effectively account for gender gaps within the two populations. However, this mainstream model leaves largely unexplained the chasm in participation across non-Hispanic whites and Mexican Americans. The authors incorporate socialization experiences specific to Mexican Americans to identify the roots of participatory inequality across these groups. Differences in linguistic, educational, and general assimilation account for participatory differences across Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites. Equalizing these factors closes the chasm in participation.

Natural Disaster and Democratic Legitimacy The Public Opinion Consequences of Chile’s 2010 Earthquake and Tsunami

Can natural disasters undermine democratic legitimacy? This article maps a causal pathway from natural disaster damage to shifts in opinion and behavioral tendencies in less established democracies. It theorizes citizens who suffer damage in such contexts will tend toward lower evaluations of democratic institutions, lower support for democratic values and practices, and stronger dispositions toward action. These expectations are tested with national survey data collected following Chile’s 2010 earthquake and tsunami by analyzing intracountry differences in damage with matching techniques and regression analyses. Results are consistent with expectations, with important implications for Chile and other less established democracies.

The Nature, Determinants, and Consequences of Chávez’s Charisma: Evidence From a Study of Venezuelan Public Opinion

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is frequently labeled “charismatic,” but this aspect of his leadership has mostly escaped direct argument and analysis. The authors offer a measure of charisma and a reciprocal account of the relationship between charisma and performance evaluations. Data from a national survey of Venezuelans confirm that perceptions of Chávez’s charisma in 2007 were comparatively high. Using three-stage least squares regression analysis the authors then document a highly dynamic process, by which poor performance erodes perceptions of Chávez’s charisma (and favors an opponent) while lingering beliefs in that charisma lead some to see better conditions than are perceived by those who do not subscribe to the charismatic sheen. The argument and analysis sharpen understandings of the nature, determinants, and consequences of charisma. The authors suggest that and explain why public support for Chávez is likely to recede at a slow, protracted pace rather than be abruptly withdrawn.

Evaluating Political Leaders in Times of Terror and Economic Threat: The Conditioning Influence of Politician Partisanship

We theorize that evaluations of leaders under terrorist and economic threat vary by both incumbency status and politician partisanship. This argument is based on insights from theories of rally effects, economic voting, and issue ownership, and we assess it with data from four national studies. The first two are experiments featuring hypothetical candidates; consistent with expectations based on issue ownership, the analyses show that Republican incumbents (Democratic challengers) are viewed comparatively better in times of terrorist (economic) threat. Then, with another experiment and with survey data, we consider evaluations of President Obama, whose image under terrorist threat should be helped by his incumbency but harmed by his partisanship, and the reverse for economic decline. We again find evidence supporting our argument and, further, individual-level evidence of issue ownership effects. We conclude that threats, incumbency status, and politician partisanship interact in important ways as they affect evaluations of political leaders.