Elizabeth Juma

Effect of the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria (AMFm) on the availability, price, and market share of quality-assured artemisinin-based combination therapies in seven countries: a before-and-after analysis of outlet survey data.

BACKGROUND Malaria is one of the greatest causes of mortality worldwide. Use of the most effective treatments for malaria remains inadequate for those in need, and there is concern over the emergence of resistance to these treatments. In 2010, the Global Fund launched the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria (AMFm), a series of national-scale pilot programmes designed to increase the access and use of quality-assured artemisinin based combination therapies (QAACTs) and reduce that of artemisinin monotherapies for treatment of malaria. AMFm involves manufacturer price negotiations, subsidies on the manufacturer price of each treatment purchased, and supporting interventions such as communications campaigns. We present findings on the effect of AMFm on QAACT price, availability, and market share, 6-15 months after the delivery of subsidised ACTs in Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania (including Zanzibar). METHODS We did nationally representative baseline and endpoint surveys of public and private sector outlets that stock antimalarial treatments. QAACTs were identified on the basis of the Global Funds quality assurance policy. Changes in availability, price, and market share were assessed against specified success benchmarks for 1 year of AMFm implementation. Key informant interviews and document reviews recorded contextual factors and the implementation process. FINDINGS In all pilots except Niger and Madagascar, there were large increases in QAACT availability (25·8-51·9 percentage points), and market share (15·9-40·3 percentage points), driven mainly by changes in the private for-profit sector. Large falls in median price for QAACTs per adult equivalent dose were seen in the private for-profit sector in six pilots, ranging from US

Efficacy and safety of artemether-lumefantrine dispersible tablets compared with crushed commercial tablets in African infants and children with uncomplicated malaria: a randomised, single-blind, multicentre trial

1·28 to

The risks of malaria infection in Kenya in 2009.

4·82. The market share of oral artemisinin monotherapies decreased in Nigeria and Zanzibar, the two pilots where it was more than 5% at baseline. INTERPRETATION Subsidies combined with supporting interventions can be effective in rapidly improving availability, price, and market share of QAACTs, particularly in the private for-profit sector. Decisions about the future of AMFm should also consider the effect on use in vulnerable populations, access to malaria diagnostics, and cost-effectiveness. FUNDING The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Declining Responsiveness of Plasmodium falciparum Infections to Artemisinin-Based Combination Treatments on the Kenyan Coast

BACKGROUND Combination treatments, preferably containing an artemisinin derivative, are recommended to improve efficacy and prevent Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance. Our aim was to show non-inferiority of a new dispersible formulation of artemether-lumefantrine to the conventional crushed tablet in the treatment of young children with uncomplicated malaria. METHODS We did a randomised non-inferiority study on children weighing 5-35 kg with uncomplicated P falciparum malaria in Benin, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, and Tanzania. The primary outcome measure was PCR-corrected 28-day parasitological cure rate. We aimed to show non-inferiority (with a margin of -5%) of dispersible versus crushed tablet. We constructed an asymptotic one-sided 97.5% CI on the difference in cure rates. A computer-generated randomisation list was kept centrally and investigators were unaware of the study medication administered. We used a modified intention-to-treat analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00386763. FINDINGS 899 children aged 12 years or younger were randomly assigned to either dispersible (n=447) or crushed tablets (n=452). More than 85% of patients in each treatment group completed the study. 812 children qualified for the modified intention-to-treat analysis (n=403 vs n=409). The PCR-corrected day-28 cure rate was 97.8% (95% CI 96.3-99.2) in the group on dispersible formulation and 98.5% (97.4-99.7) in the group on crushed formulation. The lower bound of the one-sided 97.5% CI was -2.7%. The most common drug-related adverse event was vomiting (n=33 [7%] and n=42 [9%], respectively). No signs of ototoxicity or relevant cardiotoxicity were seen. INTERPRETATION A six-dose regimen of artemether-lumefantrine with the new dispersible formulation is as efficacious as the currently used crushed tablet in infants and children, and has a similar safety profile.

Malaria paediatric hospitalization between 1999 and 2008 across Kenya

BackgroundTo design an effective strategy for the control of malaria requires a map of infection and disease risks to select appropriate suites of interventions. Advances in model based geo-statistics and malaria parasite prevalence data assemblies provide unique opportunities to redefine national Plasmodium falciparum risk distributions. Here we present a new map of malaria risk for Kenya in 2009.MethodsPlasmodium falciparum parasite rate data were assembled from cross-sectional community based surveys undertaken from 1975 to 2009. Details recorded for each survey included the month and year of the survey, sample size, positivity and the age ranges of sampled population. Data were corrected to a standard age-range of two to less than 10 years (PfPR2-10) and each survey location was geo-positioned using national and on-line digital settlement maps. Ecological and climate covariates were matched to each PfPR2-10 survey location and examined separately and in combination for relationships to PfPR2-10. Significant covariates were then included in a Bayesian geostatistical spatial-temporal framework to predict continuous and categorical maps of mean PfPR2-10 at a 1 × 1 km resolution across Kenya for the year 2009. Model hold-out data were used to test the predictive accuracy of the mapped surfaces and distributions of the posterior uncertainty were mapped.ResultsA total of 2,682 estimates of PfPR2-10 from surveys undertaken at 2,095 sites between 1975 and 2009 were selected for inclusion in the geo-statistical modeling. The covariates selected for prediction were urbanization; maximum temperature; precipitation; enhanced vegetation index; and distance to main water bodies. The final Bayesian geo-statistical model had a high predictive accuracy with mean error of -0.15% PfPR2-10; mean absolute error of 0.38% PfPR2-10; and linear correlation between observed and predicted PfPR2-10 of 0.81. The majority of Kenyas 2009 population (35.2 million, 86.3%) reside in areas where predicted PfPR2-10 is less than 5%; conversely in 2009 only 4.3 million people (10.6%) lived in areas where PfPR2-10 was predicted to be ≥40% and were largely located around the shores of Lake Victoria.ConclusionModel based geo-statistical methods can be used to interpolate malaria risks in Kenya with precision and our model shows that the majority of Kenyans live in areas of very low P. falciparum risk. As malaria interventions go to scale effectively tracking epidemiological changes of risk demands a rigorous effort to document infection prevalence in time and space to remodel risks and redefine intervention priorities over the next 10-15 years.

Reviewing the literature on access to prompt and effective malaria treatment in Kenya: implications for meeting the Abuja targets

Background The emergence of artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum malaria in South-East Asia highlights the need for continued global surveillance of the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapies. Methods On the Kenyan coast we studied the treatment responses in 474 children 6–59 months old with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in a randomized controlled trial of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine vs. artemether-lumefantrine from 2005 to 2008. (ISRCTN88705995) Results The proportion of patients with residual parasitemia on day 1 rose from 55% in 2005–2006 to 87% in 2007–2008 (odds ratio, 5.4, 95%CI, 2.7–11.1; P<0.001) and from 81% to 95% (OR, 4.1, 95%CI, 1.7–9.9; P = 0.002) in the DHA-PPQ and AM-LM groups, respectively. In parallel, Kaplan-Meier estimated risks of apparent recrudescent infection by day 84 increased from 7% to 14% (P = 0.1) and from 6% to 15% (P = 0.05) with DHA-PPQ and AM-LM, respectively. Coinciding with decreasing transmission in the study area, clinical tolerance to parasitemia (defined as absence of fever) declined between 2005–2006 and 2007–2008 (OR body temperature >37.5°C, 2.8, 1.9–4.1; P<0.001). Neither in vitro sensitivity of parasites to DHA nor levels of antibodies against parasite extract accounted for parasite clearance rates or changes thereof. Conclusions The significant, albeit small, decline through time of parasitological response rates to treatment with ACTs may be due to the emergence of parasites with reduced drug sensitivity, to the coincident reduction in population-level clinical immunity, or both. Maintaining the efficacy of artemisinin-based therapy in Africa would benefit from a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying reduced parasite clearance rates. Trial Registration Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN88705995

Mitigating the threat of artemisinin resistance in Africa: improvement of drug-resistance surveillance and response systems

BackgroundIntervention coverage and funding for the control of malaria in Africa has increased in recent years, however, there are few descriptions of changing disease burden and the few reports available are from isolated, single site observations or are of reports at country-level. Here we present a nationwide assessment of changes over 10 years in paediatric malaria hospitalization across Kenya.MethodsPaediatric admission data on malaria and non-malaria diagnoses were assembled for the period 1999 to 2008 from in-patient registers at 17 district hospitals in Kenya and represented the diverse malaria ecology of the country. These data were then analysed using autoregressive moving average time series models with malaria and all-cause admissions as the main outcomes adjusted for rainfall, changes in service use and populations-at-risk within each hospitals catchment to establish whether there has been a statistically significant decline in paediatric malaria hospitalization during the observation period.ResultsAmong the 17 hospital sites, adjusted paediatric malaria admissions had significantly declined at 10 hospitals over 10 years since 1999; had significantly increased at four hospitals, and remained unchanged in three hospitals. The overall estimated average reduction in malaria admission rates was 0.0063 cases per 1,000 children aged 0 to 14 years per month representing an average percentage reduction of 49% across the 10 hospitals registering a significant decline by the end of 2008. Paediatric admissions for all-causes had declined significantly with a reduction in admission rates of greater than 0.0050 cases per 1,000 children aged 0 to 14 years per month at 6 of 17 hospitals. Where malaria admissions had increased three of the four sites were located in Western Kenya close to Lake Victoria. Conversely there was an indication that areas with the largest declines in malaria admission rates were areas located along the Kenyan coast and some sites in the highlands of Kenya.ConclusionA country-wide assessment of trends in malaria hospitalizations indicates that all is not equal, important variations exist in the temporal pattern of malaria admissions between sites and these differences require more detailed investigation to understand what is required to promote a clinical transition across Africa.

Implementing school malaria surveys in Kenya: towards a national surveillance system

BackgroundEffective case management is central to reducing malaria mortality and morbidity worldwide, but only a minority of those affected by malaria, have access to prompt effective treatment.In Kenya, the Division of Malaria Control is committed to ensuring that 80 percent of childhood fevers are treated with effective anti-malarial medicines within 24 hours of fever onset, but this target is largely unmet. This review aimed to document evidence on access to effective malaria treatment in Kenya, identify factors that influence access, and make recommendations on how to improve prompt access to effective malaria treatment. Since treatment-seeking patterns for malaria are similar in many settings in sub-Saharan Africa, the findings presented in this review have important lessons for other malaria endemic countries.MethodsInternet searches were conducted in PUBMED (MEDLINE) and HINARI databases using specific search terms and strategies. Grey literature was obtained by soliciting reports from individual researchers working in the treatment-seeking field, from websites of major organizations involved in malaria control and from international reports.ResultsThe review indicated that malaria treatment-seeking occurs mostly in the informal sector; that most fevers are treated, but treatment is often ineffective. Irrational drug use was identified as a problem in most studies, but determinants of this behaviour were not documented. Availability of non-recommended medicines over-the-counter and the presence of substandard anti-malarials in the market are well documented. Demand side determinants of access include perception of illness causes, severity and timing of treatment, perceptions of treatment efficacy, simplicity of regimens and ability to pay. Supply side determinants include distance to health facilities, availability of medicines, prescribing and dispensing practices and quality of medicines. Policy level factors are around the complexity and unclear messages regarding drug policy changes.ConclusionKenya, like many other African countries, is still far from achieving the Abuja targets. The government, with support from donors, should invest adequately in mechanisms that promote access to effective treatment. Such approaches should focus on factors influencing multiple dimensions of access and will require the cooperation of all stakeholders working in malaria control.

A systematic review of the safety and efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine against uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria during pregnancy

Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria has emerged in western Cambodia and has been detected in western Thailand. The situation is ominously reminiscent of the emergence of resistance to chloroquine and to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine several decades ago. Artemisinin resistance is a major threat to global public health, with the most severe potential effects in sub-Saharan Africa, where the disease burden is highest and systems for monitoring and containment of resistance are inadequate. The mechanisms that underlie artemisinin resistance are not fully understood. The main phenotypic trait associated with resistance is a substantial delay in parasite clearance, so far reported in southeast Asia but not in Africa. One of the pillars of the WHO global plan for artemisinin resistance containment is to increase monitoring and surveillance. In this Personal View, we propose strategies that should be adopted by malaria-endemic countries in Africa: resource mobilisation to reactivate regional surveillance networks, establishment of baseline parasite clearance profiles to serve as benchmarks to track emerging artemisinin resistance, improved data sharing to allow pooled analyses to identify rare events, modelling of risk factors for drug resistance, and development and validation of new approaches to monitor resistance.

Evaluating controlled human malaria infection in Kenyan adults with varying degrees of prior exposure to Plasmodium falciparum using sporozoites administered by intramuscular injection.

ObjectiveTo design and implement surveys of malaria infection and coverage of malaria control interventions among school children in Kenya in order to contribute towards a nationwide assessment of malaria.MethodsThe country was stratified into distinct malaria transmission zones based on a malaria risk map and 480 schools were visited between October 2008 and March 2010. Surveys were conducted in two phases: an initial opportunistic phase whereby schools were selected for other research purposes; and a second phase whereby schools were purposively selected to provide adequate spatial representation across the country. Consent for participation was based on passive, opt-out consent rather than written, opt-in consent because of the routine, low-risk nature of the survey. All children were diagnosed for Plasmodium infection using rapid diagnostic tests, assessed for anaemia and were interviewed about mosquito net usage, recent history of illness, and socio-economic and household indicators. Childrens responses were entered electronically in the school and data transmitted nightly to Nairobi using a mobile phone modem connection. RDT positive results were corrected by microscopy and all results were adjusted for clustering using random effect regression modelling.Results49,975 children in 480 schools were sampled, at an estimated cost of US