Elspeth Thomson

The Demand for Gasoline in China: A Cointegration Analysis

The economic reforms in China since 1979 and consequent increases in disposable income have caused total gasoline consumption to soar nearly 240% between 1980 and 1999. As the growth rate of gasoline consumption is expected to be high due to the increased economic activity resulting from Chinas re-accession to the WTO, the government must understand the implications for economic growth and balance of payments. Using cointegration techniques, it was found that, between 1980 and 1999, demand for gasoline was relatively inelastic to price changes, both in the short and long terms. The long-run income elasticity was 0.97, implying that the future growth rate of gasoline consumption will be close to the growth rate of the economy, which is predicted to be about 7% per annum from 2001 to 2005, and 5-6% over the decade thereafter.

China's Energy Security: Challenges and Priorities

In a companion paper to the essays comparing Chinas and Indias economic rise (Prime, 2009) as well as Indias energy security (Dadwal, 2009), two specialists on Chinas energy industries review the countrys challenges posed by the need to dramatically increase energy use in order to support economic growth while coping with pressures to reduce environmental impacts from emissions of greenhouse gases. After reviewing the current mix of fuels in the economy and discussing each major energy resource (in terms of proven reserves, production, consumption, and foreign import requirements), the authors focus on measures undertaken by the Chinese government and corporations to improve access to vital supplies. The paper covers efforts to enhance the countrys energy security, which include diversifying sources of oil supply, purchasing oil and gas concessions and financing of energy infrastructure development in African and Central Asian countries, instituting reforms to encourage more efficient energy use, and developing alternative energy sources. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O130, P280, Q400. 7 figures, 2 tables, 82 references.

The role of oil and gas in China's energy strategy: an overview

China is well endowed with energy resources, having large quantities of coal, oil, gas and hydropower, as well as tremendous solar, wind and biomass energy potential. It even has its own uranium. To date, the country has relied mainly on coal and hydropower to generate its electricity and on oil to power its vehicles. However, with climate change and consequent rising sea levels, increased incidence of drought, intense storms, etc., China, having become the worlds largest emitter of CO2, is under strong international pressure to re-examine its energy strategy and find ways to reduce its carbon emissions. Thus, the government plans to greatly increase its use of natural gas in power generation. Gas emits less than half the CO2 that coal emits. It is argued here that over the next 20 years, massive imports of gas via pipeline and liquefied natural gas tankers, combined with the development of unconventional gas reserves in the country may partly substitute for the large quantities of coal currently being used to generate electricity, but will not likely completely replace them. As for transport fuels, China, like all other countries, has little choice but to continue relying on oil regardless of whether it is imported or China develops its own large-scale shale oil operations. There is no alternate fuel of the same density available at the same or better price. The use of biofuels and electric/hybrid vehicles will not supplant the use of gasoline or diesel in the near future. Thus, the role of oil and gas in Chinas energy strategy are set to remain very significant over the next 20 years.

Energy Conservation in East Asia: Towards Greater Energy Security

As East and Southeast Asia continue to modernize and urbanize, their demand for energy will soar. Besides seeking to import fossil fuels from the Middle East, Africa, the Caspian Region, Russia, Latin America, Australia, etc., it is imperative for these Asian countries to cooperate in substantially raising the efficiency with which energy is consumed. This book offers a comprehensive examination of East and Southeast Asias energy conservation policies. It begins with a summary of the current and projected energy supply and demand patterns in the region, and a discussion about the need and basis for cooperation in energy conservation. This is followed by an examination of the energy conservation policies and progress to date in seven ASEAN countries and in China, Japan and Korea.