Emad K. Al-Karablieh

The impact of water price strategies on the allocation of irrigation water: the case of the Jordan Valley

This paper discusses the optimal water allocation and cropping patterns for the Jordan Valley, taking into consideration variations in expected incomes from agricultural production and rising water prices. The calculations were based on information available on water supplies, areas under irrigation and market conditions, and used linear programming models for determining solutions that maximize gross margins and minimize potential variations in these gross margins. The results indicated that optimizing cropping patterns and the allocation of irrigation water still has a substantial potential to increase the financial return from agriculture. Optimal solutions that consider risk from varying gross margins react quite elastically in terms of demand for irrigation water to rising water prices. This adds the element of a changing market supply to any discussion about managing water consumption between sectors of the society by using pricing mechanisms.

An inter-seasonal agricultural water allocation system (SAWAS)

Abstract This paper introduces a linear programming optimization model for analyzing inter-seasonal allocation of irrigation water in quantities and qualities and their impact on agricultural production and income. The SAWAS model is a developed version of the Agricultural Sub-Model (AGSM). In this research, we stress water scarcity as a problem that arises when water is not found in proper quantity and quality at the appropriate place and time. The model is designed to serve as a decision-making tool for planners of agricultural production on both the district and the regional level. It generates an optimal mix of water-demanding activities that maximizes the net agricultural income of the districts and gives the water demands under various prices. It also provides the planner with tools to carry out ‘what-if’ experiments and to generate optimal water demand curves. A principal feature of SAWAS is the use of demand and the benefits from water together with costs and optimization within the agricultural sector to specify the optimal usage of different water qualities. Hence the agricultural planner can use the outputs of SAWAS in order to bridge the gap between the limited water resources and the increased agricultural production in an area that suffers from severe water scarcity. The paper applies the SAWAS model to the Jordan Valley in Jordan.

A Trade—off Analysis for the Use of Different Water Sources for Irrigation (The Case of Southern Shounah in the Jordan Valley)

Abstract Jordan is one of the poorest countries in terms of water resources. Hence, the government constantly searches for the optimal use of water. This is especially important in agriculture, which accounts for about 71% of water consumption. In the main agricultural production zone, the Jordan Valley, the Jordan Valley Authority (JVA) has applied different water policies. In particular, in recent years, the JVA effectively prohibited production in the spring season by greatly reducing the water supplied to agriculture. The objective of this study is an analysis of trade—offs among the use of different water resources in Southern Shounah in the Jordan Valley and to estimate the optimal allocation of water in order to investigate the efficiency of JVA policies. In light of the findings outlined below, we have concluded that the spring-season policy was not effective since the main crop produced in the Southern Shounah is banana. Water consumption in the region remained as it was before applying this policy: 32.48 million cubic meters (MCM). Because banana production depends on groundwater resources, which are only owned by a small number of rich farmers, we found that, if banana planting were prohibited, water savings would reach 13.08 MCM but would be accompanied by a reduction in net income of 59%. Similarly, we find that saving water by increasing water prices would be an expensive policy if the price raised were that of groundwater used for bananas. The study suggests changing the current cropping pattern to one that can come close to the highest agricultural income of US

Integration of different environmental valuation methods to estimate forest degradation in arid and semi-arid regions

33.85 million, while reducing water consumption by about 13.0 MCM.

Sustainable Water and Land Management Under Global Change—The GLOWA Jordan River Project

ABSTRACT Many factors are aggravating desertification and degradation of forests such as urbanization, droughts, exploitation of natural resources and climate change. The study aims at estimating and assessing the degradation of forests in arid and semi-arid regions. This task however is complicated since the impact of the degradation will be in different forms such as loss of wood, soil erosion and lost recreational areas. Nevertheless the dynamic impact of the degradation is increasing the complexity of analysis since forest once lost is a reduction of value for all subsequent years. This study is considering the value of damages over time and it is using the concept of three environmental valuation methods to estimate the whole impact of the degradation: the habitat equivalency analysis (HEA), the productivity method and the benefit transfer method. The methods were applied to specific values of forests, depending on the best applicability, and the results combined to an overall value loss. The costs are calculated based on the year 2014 with two time horizons: 30 and 100 years. To apply the valuation approach, Jordan as an arid and semi-arid country is chosen. The result shows that the annual costs of environmental degradation of Jordanian forest areas equal about 0.14% of GDP in 2013, proving the enormous value lost to forest degradation or deforestation. The valuation approach can be transferred to other arid or semi-arid areas and stimulate forest conservation activities to prevent further degradation and to save the forest ecosystem services for the future.

Water demand elasticities under risk conditions

Water scarcity has been a feature of life in the Jordan River basin from time immemorial. Over the last century the situation has become gradually worse because of the increasing population, its development for agriculture and changes in rainfall patterns and consequent droughts. The potential impact of global change on the region is likely to be very damaging unless steps are taken to adapt. The roughly forty interdisciplinary research teams taking part in the GLOWA Jordan River Project, whose membership is made up of scientists and stakeholders from Germany, Israel, Jordan and Palestine, produced numerous results of applied and basic research about the effects of global change and alternative options for responding to them. The results included regional climate change scenarios, scenarios for regional development under global change, improved understanding of the hydrological conditions in the region, and water management application tools such as the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool. The project developed strategies and guidelines for sustainable water and land management under global change. It integrated among many different disciplines like climatology, hydrology, ecology, socio-economy, and agriculture and supported an active transboundary dialogue between science and stakeholders in the Jordan River region. A transdisciplinary approach was realized by developing jointly with stakeholders scenarios of the water situation and potential adaptation strategies via a scenario analysis approach, as well as by developing and establishing WEAP usage with regional stakeholders. The project can serve as an example for successful transboundary IWRM even in the most contentious setting.

Forecasting models for barley production in Jordan

Purpose This paper aims to: (1) estimate the water demand elasticities using a parametric linear programming model to insight an accurate and flexible pricing policy of irrigation water in the Jordan Valley; and (2) highlight key risk aspects, related to water demand, which are likely to impact the community. Design/methodology/approach A parametric linear programming (LP) model was used in this research. Primary and secondary data were collected. Findings Results revealed that the demand elasticity is high in Spring and Summer than in Fall and Winter, meaning that during Spring and Summer farmers are willing to forgo larger amounts of water than in other months. This is because of areas planted during spring seasons are much less than those of autumn and winter. Practical implications The Jordan Valley suffers from water scarcity risk, and consequently the area to be planted is not fully utilized, leading to lower cropping intensities. Responsible authorities in Jordan need to address these issues and pr...

Measuring the willingness of farmers to pay for groundwater in the highland areas of Jordan

The main objective of this study is to construct forecasting models to project barley production, which is the main animal feed resource in Jordan. It is considered as the second main cultivated crop in the rainfed areas of Jordan, and the major concentrate feed for small ruminants all year around. Moreover, forecasting models are constructed for the main barley producing districts. Variables affecting barley production in Jordan were the accumulated monthly rainfall, monthly temperatures, and the average farm gate prices of barley in the previous season and the planted areas of barley. For each district and for the whole country, four multiple linear regression models were estimated. This estimation was based on the accumulated rainfall during the growing season up to January, February. March and April. The result of the analysis indicated that rainfall was the most limiting factor in increasing barley production. And additional one-millimeter precipitated in January will increase barley production by 156 tons. Also it shows that temperature in January has a positive effect on increasing barley production, but it has a negative effect during February, March and April. The barley pricing policy of government plays a significant role in increasing barley production