Emanuela Scarpi

A New Palliative Prognostic Score: A First Step for the Staging of Terminally Ill Cancer Patients

In recent years, extensive research has been performed to identify prognostic factors that predict survival in terminally ill cancer patients. This study describes the construction of a simple prognostic score based on factors identified in a prospective multicenter study of 519 patients with a median survival of 32 days. An exponential multiple regression model was adopted to evaluate the joint effect of some clinico-biological variables on survival. From an initial model containing 36 variables, a final parsimonious model was obtained by means of a backward selection procedure. The Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP Score) is based on the final model and includes the following variables: Clinical Prediction of Survival (CPS), Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), anorexia, dyspnea, total white blood count (WBC) and lymphocyte percentage. A numerical score was given to each variable, based on the relative weight of the independent prognostic significance shown by each single category in the multivariate analysis. The sum of the single scores gives the overall PaP Score for each patient and was used to subdivide the study population into three groups, each with a different probability of survival at 30 days: (1) group A: probability of survival at 30 days > 70%, with patient score < or = 5.5; (2) group B: probability of survival at 30 days 30-70%, with patient score 5.6-11.0; and (3) group C: probability of survival at 30 days < 30%, with patient score > 11.0. Using this method, 178/519 (34.3%) patients were classified in risk group A, 205 (39.5%) patients were in risk group B, and 136 (26.2%) patients were in risk group C. The patients classified in the three risk groups had a very different survival experience (logrank = 294.8, P < 0.001), with a median survival of 64 days for group A, 32 days for group B, and 11 days for group C. The PaP Score based on simple clinical and biohumoral variables proved to be statistically significant in a multivariate analysis. The score is valid in this population (training set). An independent validation on another patient series (testing set) is required and is the object of a companion paper.

Successful Validation of the Palliative Prognostic Score in Terminally Ill Cancer Patients

The aim of this work was to validate a previously constructed prognostic score for terminally ill cancer patients in order to determine its value in clinical practice. The Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP Score) was tested on a population of 451 evaluable patients consecutively entered in the hospice programs of 14 Italian Palliative Care Centers. The score subdivided patients into three specific risk classes based on the following six predictive factors of death: dyspnea, anorexia, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), Clinical Prediction of Survival (CPS), total white blood count (WBC), and lymphocyte percentage. The performance of the PaP Score index in the training and testing sets was evaluated by comparing mortality rates in the 3 prognostic risk categories. The score was able to subdivide the validation-independent case series into three risk groups. Median survival was 76 days in group A (with a 86.6% probability of 30-day survival), 32 days in group B (with a 51.6% probability of 30-day survival), and 14 days in group C (with a 16.9% probability of 30-day survival). Survival medians were remarkably similar to those of the training set (64 days in group A, 32 days in group B, and 11 days in group C). In the complex process of staging terminally ill patients, the PaP Score is a simple instrument which permits a more accurate quantification of expected survival. It has been validated on an independent case series and is thus suitable for use in clinical practice.

Prediction of survival of patients terminally III with cancer. Results of an Italian prospective multicentric study

Background. The individualization of prognostic factors in the various stages of cancer facilitates the planning of a therapeutic assistance program aimed at various subsets of patients. The prognostic factors for survival in patients terminally ill with cancer have been investigated in case studies that are often retrospective, monocentric and/or include a mixture of patients in advanced disease stages. The aim of this prospective multicentric study was to verify those clinical factors predictive of survival in a population of patients with terminal cancer.

Palliative Sedation in End-of-Life Care and Survival: A Systematic Review

PURPOSE Palliative sedation is a clinical procedure aimed at relieving refractory symptoms in patients with advanced cancer. It has been suggested that sedative drugs may shorten life, but few studies exist comparing the survival of sedated and nonsedated patients. We present a systematic review of literature on the clinical practice of palliative sedation to assess the effect, if any, on survival. METHODS A systematic review of literature published between January 1980 and December 2010 was performed using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. Search terms included palliative sedation, terminal sedation, refractory symptoms, cancer, neoplasm, palliative care, terminally ill, end-of-life care, and survival. A manual search of the bibliographies of electronically identified articles was also performed. RESULTS Eleven published articles were identified describing 1,807 consecutive patients in 10 retrospective or prospective nonrandomized studies, 621 (34.4%) of whom were sedated. One case-control study was excluded from prevalence analysis. The most frequent reason for sedation was delirium in the terminal stages of illness (median, 57.1%; range, 13.8% to 91.3%). Benzodiazepines were the most common drug category prescribed. Comparing survival of sedated and nonsedated patients, the sedation approach was not shown to be associated with worse survival. CONCLUSION Even if there is no direct evidence from randomized clinical trials, palliative sedation, when appropriately indicated and correctly used to relieve unbearable suffering, does not seem to have any detrimental effect on survival of patients with terminal cancer. In this setting, palliative sedation is a medical intervention that must be considered as part of a continuum of palliative care.

Palliative sedation therapy does not hasten death: Results from a prospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND Palliative sedation therapy (PST) is indicated for and used to control refractory symptoms in cancer patients undergoing palliative care. We aimed to evaluate whether PST has a detrimental effect on survival in terminally ill patients. METHODS This multicenter, observational, prospective, nonrandomized population-based study evaluated overall survival in two cohorts of hospice patients, one submitted to palliative sedation (A) and the other managed as per routine hospice practice (B). Cohorts were matched for age class, gender, reason for hospice admission, and Karnofsky performance status. RESULTS Of the 518 patients enrolled, 267 formed cohort A and 251 cohort B. In total, 25.1% of patients admitted to the participating hospices received PST. Mean and median duration of sedation was 4 (standard deviation 6.0) and 2 days (range 0-43), respectively. Median survival of arm A was 12 days [90% confidence interval (CI) 10-14], while that of arm B was 9 days (90% CI 8-10) (log rank = 0.95, P = 0.330) (unadjusted hazard ratio = 0.92, 90% CI 0.80-1.06). CONCLUSION PST does not shorten life when used to relieve refractory symptoms and does not need the doctrine of double effect to justify its use from an ethical point of view.

High-dose progestins for the treatment of cancer anorexia-cachexia syndrome: A systematic review of randomised clinical trials

BACKGROUND The aim of the present study was to summarise evidence from scientific studies on cancer anorexia-cachexia syndrome in order to assess and highlight the efficacy of high-dose progestins (megestrol acetate and medroxyprogesterone acetate) compared with placebo in patients with hormone-independent tumors. MATERIALS AND METHODS A systematic review of published randomised clinical trials was carried out by an extensive electronic and hand search through databases, relevant journals and books, congress, proceedings, reference lists, without any language or year of publication restriction. The research was conducted by two independent operators who collected the data in a form specifically designed for this review. Among the several possible outcomes, appetite and body weight were chosen. RESULTS Fifteen randomised clinical trials (more than 2000 patients) were retrieved for the review. There was a statistically significant advantage for high-dose progestins as regards improved appetite: pooled odds ratio (OR) = 4.23, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.53-7.04. Although the effect of high-dose progestins on body weight was less impressive, statistical significance was also reached for this outcome: pooled OR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.80-3.92. Treatment morbidity was very low, due to the brief period of the treatment in most of the studies. CONCLUSIONS The effects of high-dose progestins on appetite and body weight were clearly demonstrated. However, further studies are undoubtedly warranted to investigate other aspects of progestin activity, especially as regards dosage, duration and timing with best therapeutic index.

Serum levels of tumour necrosis factor alpha and other cytokines do not correlate with weight loss and anorexia in cancer patients

Cancer anorexia-cachexia syndrome (CACS), which is characterized by progressive weight loss (WL) and anorexia (A), is present in 50% of advanced cancer patients and in 80% of terminally ill cancer patients. One of the most controversial aspects of CACS is its oetiopathogenesis; experimental studies have identified certain cytokines [Tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin 1 (IL-1), interleukin 6 (IL-6), and gamma interferon (\gg-IFN)] as possible cofactors in the onset of the syndrome. The aim of our study was to investigate the correlation between serum levels of circulating cytokines and severity of CACS. The following series of parameters was indentified in 61 patients with advanced and terminal cancer: stage of disease; Karnofsky performance status (KPS) and clinical symptoms; biohumoral, anthropometric and immunological situation; level of circulating cytokines. All these parameters were evaluated for a possible link with WL/A. Our data do not show any significant correlation between circulating cytokines and WL/A. A direct correlation was identified between WL/A and nausea (P=0.03 andP<0.001, respectively) whereas inverse correlations were observed for both factors as regards arm circumference (P<0.001 for both), wrist circumference (P<0.001 for both), KPS (P<0.001 andP=0.003, respectively) and creatinine (P=0.005 andP=0.03, respectively). Other biochemical factors, such as haemoglobin, haematocrit, glycaemia, prealbumin, sodium and chlorine were also correlated with at least one of the two clinical parameters in question. Unexpected results were seen in the increases in CD20 and CD4 and in the CD4/CD8 ratio. Serum levels of these cytokines do not, therefore, appear to be critical in the onset of CACS. On the contrary, our findings confirmed the clinico-laboratory picture that is characteristic of CACS. If we consider the possibility that CACS is provoked by an aspecific response of the hosts defence mechanisms against prolonged neoplastic attack, the increase in CD4 (helper lymphocytes) could be linked to the persistent response.

A validation study of the WHO analgesic ladder: a two-step vs three-step strategy

Goals of workThe aims of the present study were to verify whether an innovative therapeutic strategy for the treatment of mild-moderate chronic cancer pain, passing directly from step I to step III of the WHO analgesic ladder, is more effective than the traditional three-step strategy and to evaluate the tolerability and therapeutic index in both strategies.MethodsPatients aged 18 years or older with multiple viscera or bone metastases or with locally advanced disease were randomized. Pain intensity was assessed using a 0–10 numerical rating scale based on four questions selected from the validated Italian version of the Brief Pain Inventory. Treatment-specific variables and other symptoms were recorded at baseline up to a maximum follow-up of 90 days per patient.ResultsFifty-four patients were randomized onto the study, and pain intensity was assessed over a period of 2,649 days. The innovative treatment presented a statistically significant advantage over the traditional strategy in terms of the percentage of days with worst pain ≥5 (22.8 vs 28.6%, p<0.001) and ≥7 (8.6 vs 11.2%, p=0.023). Grades 3 and 4 anorexia and constipation were more frequently reported in the innovative strategy arm, although prophylactic laxative therapy was used less in this setting.ConclusionsOur preliminary data would seem to suggest that a direct move to the third step of the WHO analgesic ladder is feasible and could reduce some pain scores but also requires careful management of side effects.

Prospective Comparison of Prognostic Scores in Palliative Care Cancer Populations

PURPOSE Predicting prognosis in advanced cancer aids physicians in clinical decision making and can help patients and their families to prepare for the time ahead. MATERIALS AND METHODS This multicenter, observational, prospective, nonrandomized population-based study evaluated life span prediction of four prognostic scores used in palliative care: the original palliative prognostic score (PaP Score), a variant of PaP Score including delirium (D-PaP Score), the Palliative Performance Scale, and the Palliative Prognostic Index. RESULTS A total of 549 patients were enrolled onto the study. Median survival of the entire group was 22 days (95% confidence intervals [95% CI] = 19-24). All four prognostic models discriminated well between groups of patients with different survival probabilities. Log-rank tests were all highly significant (p < .0001). The PaP and D-PaP scores were the most accurate, with a C index of 0.72 (95% CI = 0.70-0.73) and 0.73 (95% CI = 0.71-0.74), respectively. CONCLUSION It can be confirmed that all four prognostic scores used in palliative care studies accurately identify classes of patients with different survival probabilities. The PaP Score has been extensively validated and shows high accuracy and reproducibility in different settings.

Lymph Node Micrometastases in Early Gastric Cancer and Their Impact on Prognosis

While the presence of lymph node metastases in early gastric cancer (EGC) is the most significant prognostic factor, the relevance of lymph node micrometastases remains uncertain. The authors studied 5400 lymph nodes dissected from 300 patients treated surgically for EGC between 1976 and 1999, all of whom were histologically pN0. Micrometastases were defined as single or small clusters of neoplastic cells identifiable only by immunohistochemical methods. Lymph node micrometastases were observed in 30 of the 300 patients (10%). No significant correlation was observed between micrometastases and other clinicopathological characteristics. Analysis of overall survival showed no significant difference between positive or negative micrometastasis groups. The results of our study show that the presence of lymph node micrometastases in EGC does not influence patient prognosis.