Emanuele Ciani

The consequences of public employment: evidence from Italian municipalities

We investigate the consequences of public employment on local economies. We start by presenting a spatial-equilibrium framework, to highlight that the housing market is an important channel through which a variation in public employment affects private employment. We then provide empirical evidence from Italian municipalities, focusing on the strong contraction in the public sector workforce that occurred between the last two Censuses (2001-2011). We use an IV identification strategy that exploits the fact that variations in local public employment were strongly influenced by central government decisions, with little reference to the economic conditions of the municipalities. Our results suggest that exogenous contractions in public employment lead to an increase of private jobs, and that competition in the housing market seems to be a relevant explanation for this finding.

Local labour market heterogeneity in Italy: estimates and simulations using responses to labour demand shocks

Using different data sources from local labour markets (LLMs) in Italy between 1971 and 2011, we document a number of stylized facts: a) local differences in the ratios of private employment to population are highly persistent; b) the population has a limited reaction to labour demand shocks, consistent with the high rigidity of nominal wages and pro-cyclical variations in rents, which absorb the gains (losses) from higher (lower) employment rates; c) labour demand shocks are fairly persistent and unevenly distributed, to the detriment of those areas that were already lagging behind and boosting the more advanced ones; d) shocks are amplified by the non-linear employment adjustment, which reacts more to negative shocks than to positive ones. The estimated reactions to shocks are then used to perform policy-motivated simulations. We find that allowing greater population reactions is a superior policy option. Had Italy experienced the population reactivity of the US, local disparities would have been significantly less, to the same extent as with a sizeable public intervention in areas lagging behind.

No Free Lunch, Buddy: Past Housing Transfers and Informal Care Later in Life

Previous empirical literature on the relationship between intergenerational transfers of assets and services has mostly focused on contemporary exchanges. In contrast, we provide novel evidence that parents who helped their adult children in the past are rewarded by a greater likelihood of receiving informal care later in life. To this end we use Italian data to look at retrospective information about how parents help their children to purchase houses when they get married. Our estimates show a positive association with the current provision of informal care, which is robust to controlling for a large set of individual and family characteristics. We provide evidence that this can be explained by various self-interest motives, relating to theories based either on bilateral exchange or on the presence of a third generation of grandchildren, such as those including a demonstration effect or the concept of a family constitution.

Targeting policy-compliers with machine learning: an application to a tax rebate programme in Italy

Machine Learning (ML) can be a powerful tool to inform policy decisions. Those who are treated under a programme might have different propensities to put into practice the behaviour that the policymaker wants to incentivize. ML algorithms can be used to predict the policy-compliers; that is, those who are most likely to behave in the way desired by the policymaker. When the design of the programme is tailored to target the policy-compliers, the overall effectiveness of the policy is increased. This paper proposes an application of ML targeting that uses the massive tax rebate scheme introduced in Italy in 2014.