Emanuele Crocetti

Improvement of malignant/benign ratio in excised melanocytic lesions in the ‘dermoscopy era’: a retrospective study 1997–2001

Background  Because of the many limitations of studies based on the diagnostic setting of excised lesions, the impact of dermoscopy (epiluminescence microscopy, dermatoscopy) in melanoma screening during practice remains to be established.

Risk of cancer in persons with AIDS in Italy, 1985-1998

A record linkage was carried out between the Italian Registry of AIDS and 19 Cancer Registries (CRs), which covered 23% of the Italian population, to estimate the overall cancer burden among persons with HIV or AIDS (PWHA) in Italy, according to various characteristics. Observed and expected numbers of cancer and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were assessed until 1998 in 12 104 PWHA aged 15–69 years, for a total of 60 421 person-years. Significantly increased SIRs were observed for Kaposis sarcoma (KS, 1749-fold higher than the general population), non-Hodgkins lymphomas (NHL, 352), and invasive cervical cancer (22). SIR was significantly elevated also for cancer of the anus (34), lung cancer (2.4), brain tumours (4.4), Hodgkins disease (16), and leukaemias (5.3). The majority of lung and brain cancers were not histologically confirmed, and the possibility of misclassification with KS or NHL cannot be ruled out. The SIR for all non-AIDS-defining cancers was 2.2 in men and 2.5 in women. Intravenous drug users showed significantly more elevated SIRs for lung cancer (9.4), and brain tumours (6.7) than other transmission categories (SIR=1.4 and 2.3, respectively). This study confirmed increased SIRs for haemolymphopoietic neoplasms other than NHL in PWHA, although many-fold smaller than for NHL. An association with human papillomavirus-related cancers was also confirmed.

Quantification of the effect of mammographic screening on fatal breast cancers: The Florence Programme 1990-96.

Breast cancer cases diagnosed in women aged 50–69 since 1990 to 1996 in the City of Florence were partitioned into those who had been invited to screening prior to diagnosis and those who had not. All cases were followed up for vital status until 31 December 1999. The cumulative number of breast cancer deaths among the cases were divided by screening and invitation status, to give the rates of cancers proving fatal within a period of 8 years of observation (incidence-based mortality). We used the incidence-based mortality rates for two periods (1985–86, 1990–96), pre and during screening. The incidence-based mortality ratio comparing 1990–96 and 1985–86 was 0.50 (95% CI:0.38–0.66), a significant 50% reduction. For noninvited women, compared to 1985-86, there was a 41% significant mortality reduction (RR=0.59, 95% CI:0.42–0.82). The comparable reduction in those invited was a significant 55% (RR=0.45, 95% CI:0.32–0.61). The incidence ratio of rates of cancers stage II or worse was close to one when the noninvited in 1990–96 were compared with 1985–86 (RR=0.97, 95% CI:0.78–1.21). Excluding prevalent cases, the rate of stage II+ breast cancer cases was 42% lower in Screened women compared with the noninvited (RR=0.58, 95% CI:0.45–0.74). This study confirmed that new treatments and the first rounds of the screening programme contributed to reducing mortality from breast cancer.

Measuring interval cancers in population-based screening using different assays of fecal occult blood testing : The district of florence experience

The fecal occult blood test (FOBT) has demonstrated its efficacy in reducing mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC). The guaiac‐based FOBT has been criticized for its low sensitivity. In this study, two different assays for FOBT (guaiac or an immunochemical test based on reversed passive hemagglutination [RPHA]) were tested for comparison within a population‐based screening program for colorectal cancer in the province of Florence (Italy). The proportional incidence method was used to calculate sensitivity for both FOBTs, according to rank of screening (first or repeat), age at entry (two groups of 50 to 59 and 60 to 70 years old) and lesion site (colon or rectum). When comparing FOBTs, the sensitivity multivariate Poisson regression was used to adjust for other variables. The sensitivity after the first 2 years was 50% (95% confidence interval [CI] 34% to 63%) for the guaiac test versus 82% (95% CI 67% to 92%) for RPHA. At multivariate analysis the risk of developing an interval cancer after a guaiac test is almost 3 times that after RPHA (rate ratio = 2.64; 95% CI 1.3 to 5.4). Our study confirms that RPHA is more sensitive than the guaiac test. The assumption that FOBT screening for CRC has to be based on a guaiac test should be reconsidered, and RPHA should be recommended as the standard FOBT for screening purposes.

An estimate of overdiagnosis 15 years after the start of mammographic screening in Florence.

AIM Several studies have tried to quantify overdiagnosis of breast cancer with mammography screening, but estimates vary widely. The aim of this study is to evaluate the degree of overdiagnosis of breast cancer 15 years after the introduction of service screening in Florence (Italy). METHODS We selected 61,568 women aged 50-69 years at the beginning of service screening (1990) and we used the cancer registry data to follow up them for breast cancer incidence. The measure of overdiagnosis is the ratio of cumulative incidence of breast cancer in the invited group (observed) at least 5 years after the last screening to that expected in the absence of screening. RESULTS Under the assumption of a 1.2% annual trend in pre-screening incidence in women aged 60-69 years at the start of service screening, the ratio of observed to expected cumulative cases was 1.01 (95%CI: 0.95-1.07), but assuming no incidence trend, an unlikely scenario, the estimate of overdiagnosis rose to 1.13 (95%CI: 1.07-1.19). CONCLUSION Overdiagnosis of breast cancer in Florentine service screening can be estimated only for women aged 60-69 years at the start of service screening, for it is only for this group that a sufficient follow-up period is available after the last screening. Although the estimate of overdiagnosis is very sensitive to pre-screening trend estimates, our data show that 15 years after the introduction of mammographic service screening the degree of overdiagnosis was nearly zero and more than likely lower than 13% in this age group.

Incidence of thyroid cancer in Italy, 1991–2005: time trends and age–period–cohort effects

BACKGROUND In Italy, some of the highest incidence rates (IRs) of thyroid cancer (TC) worldwide have been reported. PATIENTS AND METHODS TC cases <85 years of age reported to Italian cancer registries during 1991-2005 were included. Age-standardized IRs were computed for all TC and age-period-cohort effects were estimated for papillary TC. RESULTS IRs of TC were twofold higher in 2001-2005 than in 1991-1995 (18 and 8 per 100,000 women, 6 and 3 per 100,000 men, respectively). Increases were similar in the two sexes and nearly exclusively due to papillary TC. Increases of papillary TC by birth cohort were found in both sexes and among all age groups between 20 and 79 years. Age-period-cohort models showed a strong period effect in both sexes (rate ratio for 2001-2009 versus 1991-1995 = 2.5 in women and 2.3 in men), although IRs peaked at an earlier age in women (45-49 years) than men (65-69 years). CONCLUSION The strength of the period effect in both sexes and the earlier onset in women than men strongly implicated increased medical surveillance in the upward trends of papillary TC incidence in Italy. The consequences of the current intense search for TC on morbidity and possible overtreatment, especially among young women, should be carefully evaluated.

Breast cancer survival in the US and Europe: A CONCORD high-resolution study.

Breast cancer survival is reportedly higher in the US than in Europe. The first worldwide study (CONCORD) found wide international differences in age‐standardized survival. The aim of this study is to explain these survival differences. Population‐based data on stage at diagnosis, diagnostic procedures, treatment and follow‐up were collected for about 20,000 women diagnosed with breast cancer aged 15–99 years during 1996–98 in 7 US states and 12 European countries. Age‐standardized net survival and the excess hazard of death up to 5 years after diagnosis were estimated by jurisdiction (registry, country, European region), age and stage with flexible parametric models. Breast cancers were generally less advanced in the US than in Europe. Stage also varied less between US states than between European jurisdictions. Early, node‐negative tumors were more frequent in the US (39%) than in Europe (32%), while locally advanced tumors were twice as frequent in Europe (8%), and metastatic tumors of similar frequency (5–6%). Net survival in Northern, Western and Southern Europe (81–84%) was similar to that in the US (84%), but lower in Eastern Europe (69%). For the first 3 years after diagnosis the mean excess hazard was higher in Eastern Europe than elsewhere: the difference was most marked for women aged 70–99 years, and mainly confined to women with locally advanced or metastatic tumors. Differences in breast cancer survival between Europe and the US in the late 1990s were mainly explained by lower survival in Eastern Europe, where low healthcare expenditure may have constrained the quality of treatment.

Descriptive epidemiology of cholangiocarcinoma in Italy

BACKGROUND Very little data exist on the epidemiology of cholangiocarcinoma in Italy. AIM We focus on the descriptive epidemiology of cholangiocarcinoma in Italy. METHODS Data on incidence were obtained from the Italian Association of Tumour Registries while mortality data were obtained from the Italian National Institute of Statistics. RESULTS A progressive increase of incidence with age was seen for extra-hepatic, intra-hepatic and not otherwise specified cholangiocarcinoma. Crude incidence rates were higher for extra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma than those for intra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma and in men compared to women. An increasing incidence trend was observed, from 1988 to 2005, for both extra-hepatic- and intra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma with a 3-6% yearly increase and with a rate of increase higher for men than for women and for intra-hepatic- than for extra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma. For intra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma, the mortality rates progressively increased from 0.15 per million in 1980 to 5.9 per million in 2003, when mortality for this cancer surpassed extra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Mortality rates for extra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma showed an increasing trend from 1980 to 1994 but, in contrast to intra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma, a stable or slightly decreasing trend from 1995 to 2003 was observed. CONCLUSIONS In Italy, cholangiocarcinoma showed a progressive increase in incidence and mortality in the last two decades mainly in intra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

Survival in Patients With Uveal Melanoma in Europe

OBJECTIVE To estimate survival in patients in whom uveal melanoma was diagnosed between January 1, 1983, and December 31, 1994, in Europe. METHODS Survival analysis of data from 32 cancer registries in 16 European countries adhering to the European Cancer Registry for 5788 patients with uveal melanoma diagnosed between January 1, 1983, and December 31, 1994, with follow-up to 1999. RESULTS Five-year relative survival was 68.9% overall and remained stable with the period of diagnosis. Relative excess risk of death was 2.45 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.10-2.86) in patients aged 75 years or older compared with patients aged 54 years or younger and was slightly higher in male patients (relative excess risk, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19) than in female patients. Survival was similar in Nordic countries (relative excess risk, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.87-1.21) compared with the United Kingdom (reference country) and was lower in eastern and western European countries (1.26; 1.05-1.52, and 1.25; 0.90-1.60, respectively) compared with the reference country. CONCLUSIONS In this large series of patients with uveal melanoma, 5-year relative survival remained stable with the introduction of conservative treatment in individuals in whom uveal melanoma was diagnosed between 1983 and 1994. We found differences in survival between sexes and in European areas that should be investigated in studies that consider tumor characteristics at the individual level.

Incidence of second primary cancers in three Italian population-based cancer registries

This is the first population-based study carried out in a southern European region to evaluate the risk of a cohort of cancer patients for developing further cancers. The Tuscany Tumour Registry, the Ragusa Cancer Registry and the Cancer Registry of Romagna, three of the 14 population-based cancer registries active in Italy, were involved in the present study. Overall, 19,252 incident cases of cancer of the female breast, and of the colon, rectum, lung and stomach were followed-up for 48 358.3 person-years. Only second metachronous cancers were considered. Controlateral breast cancers were analysed separately. Multiple primaries (MPs) were defined according to the IACR-IACR rules. The observed (O) numbers of MPs were compared with those expected (E) from age-, sex- and registry-specific incidence rates. Overall, 463 MPs were diagnosed (O/E = 0.87, P < 0.001). The O/E ratios for cancers of the colon (O/E = 0.66), rectum (O/E = 0.72) and all sites combined (O/E = 0.78) in males were significantly lower than expected. The deficit of observed MPs was significant during the first period (2-12 months) and increased over time. Patients over 65 years of age had a significant lower risk of MP, whereas young cancer patients had significantly higher risks for all cancers and for female breast cancer. Male lung cancer patients had a significantly reduced O/E ratio for stomach cancer (O/E = 0.21). Rectal cancer patients had reduced risks of developing stomach cancer and tumours of all sites combined and a 3-fold increased risk of kidney cancers. Colon cancer patients had an overall reduction in risk of MPs, but female colon cancer patients had a significantly increased risk for tumours of the ovary and small intestine; no significant results were found for primary stomach cancers. Female breast cancer patients had a significantly increased risk of rectal cancer (O/E = 1.97), and when synchronous and bilateral breast cancers were considered, significant overall increases in risk were seen for all cancer sites (O/E = 1.6) and for rectal (O/E = 2), and especially for breast cancers (O/E = 3). The cohort analysed had a lower risk of developing further independent tumours than the general population. Several artefacts may have biased these results: the exclusion of synchronous cancers greatly reduced the overall MP risk, and the age-related differences may have been due to reduced medical surveillance and diagnostic aggressiveness. We have confirmed the increased risk for kidney cancers in rectal cancer patients and the association between cancers of the colon and ovary. The significantly increased risk for rectal cancer in female breast cancer patients is probably due to hormonal and dietary factors. For female breast cancer patients, controlateral breast cancer represented the highest risk. The increased risk of cancer of the small intestine in patients with colon cancer may be due to overdiagnosis within increased medical surveillance.