Emanuele Ferrari

Observing and analysing the Bioeconomy in the EU – Adapting data and tools to new questions and challenges

The concept of ‘bioeconomy’ is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. The European Commission (EC) has initiated the Bioeconomy Strategy which is a signal of intent that the EU seeks to meet the challenge of reconciling responsible-resource usage respecting sustainability criteria, with wealth-generation. To this aim, the EC’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) has been entrusted to implement a Bioeconomy Information Systems Observatory within which the objective is to develop an ongoing coherent picture of the activities of this sector, whilst developing forward- looking tools of analysis to help respond to the aforementioned challenge. This paper provides a discussion on the research activities which are currently under development at the JRC. Whilst the scale of ambition of the Bioeconomy Observatory is significant, it is recognised that much of the research conducted so-far remains workin- progress and is therefore only a starting point to fully capturing the nuances of this diverse and complex sector.

Water Scarcity and Irrigation Efficiency in Egypt

This study provides quantitative assessments for the impacts of efficiency enhancement for different types of irrigation water under water scarcity conditions. It employs a single country CGE (STAGE) model calibrated to an extended version of a recently constructed SAM for Egypt 2008/09. The SAM segments the agricultural accounts by season and by irrigation scheme; Nile water- and groundwater-dependent as well as rain-fed agricultural activities. The simulations show that Egypt should manage potential reductions in the supply for Nile water with more efficient irrigation practice that secures higher productivity for Nile water, groundwater and irrigated land. The results suggests more ambitious plan to boost irrigation efficiency for summer rice in order to overweight any potential shrinkages in its output and exports. Furthermore, even doubling all non-conventional water resources is not sufficient to compensate the potential adverse impacts of Nile water losses. This highlights the importance of irrigation efficiency for the Egyptian economy

Potential EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement: Impact Assessment, Volume 1: Main results

This report presents the simulations made with two different models of two alternative hypothetical versions of a bilateral free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur. The two versions of the agreement are based on the final negotiating positions of each party in the previous unresolved negotiating round. A global CGE model, GLOBE, simulates the economy-wide impacts of the trade policy changes involving all sectors of the two regional blocks. A global partial equilibrium model, CAPRI, simulates only the impacts generated by changes in agricultural trade policy and incurred by the agricultural sectors of the two regions. However, CAPRI considers individual agricultural products in more detail and can generate the territorial distribution of their production within the EU at the NUTS 2 regional level. The simulation results show that the economic losses and the adjustment pressures arising from a bilateral trade agreement between the EU and the countries of Mercosur would, as far as the EU is concerned, fall very heavily on the agricultural sector. The gains to other sectors would be widely diffused and, given the very small magnitude of these gains relative to the EU economy as a whole, would be easily absorbed without imposing an adjustment burden. The aggregate welfare changes for the EU, whether measured across the whole economy or on a partial basis with respect only to the activities agricultural production and food consumption, would be small. However, the trade-off involved in the redistribution of income between agriculture and the rest of the economy is steeper in the scenarios depicting the terms requested by Mercosur than in those involving the terms offered by the EU. The Mercosur request provokes a much greater downward impact on EU agriculture whereas the additional gains elsewhere (to non-agrifood sectors or to consumers in the EU) are relatively smaller.

Analysis of the impact of Croatia's accession to the EU on the agri-food sectors. A focus on trade and agricultural policies

This report analyses the likely effects of Croatias accession to the European Union (EU) on the agricultural and food sectors in terms of trade, production, employment and GDP for Croatia, the EU-27 and their main trading partners. Using a multi-country Computable General Equilibrium model (MAGNET) this study evaluates the impacts of the harmonisation of trade and agricultural policies that occur after this enlargement on July 1st, 2013. The results show that both Croatias GDP and employment will slightly increase. The main conclusions point out significant market price effects as well as changes in trade patterns.

An approach to describe the agri-food and other bio-based sectors in the European Union: Focus on Spain

This study stresses the capacity of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with a highly disaggregated agricultural sector (AgroSAM) to provide a descriptive analysis of the agri-food and other bio-based sectors. It focuses on Spain but also performs a review for every European Union Member State to detect potential agri-food and other bio-based key sectors. It uses the software SIMSIPSAM to detect backward and forward structural linkages as well as key sectors with the aim of revealing potential growth, a key element in the design of public and private policies. Finally, it presents the Spanish employment multiplier, in order to stress which sectors are the most significant in term of job creation.

Cumulative economic impact of future trade agreements on EU agriculture

This report presents potential effects of twelve free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU FTA agenda. It sheds some light on relatively balanced cumulated impacts in terms of trade, production and price for the EU agricultural sector as a whole, while quantifying also the market development for specific agricultural sectors. Different from a forecast exercise, it compares a conservative and an ambitious FTA scenario with a business as usual (reference) scenario.

Contribution to the economic impact assessment of policy options to regulate animal cloning for food production with an economic simulation model

The EU is currently evaluating different policy options towards the use of cloning or products derived from cloned animals in the food chain. This study presents a first attempt to quantify the likely effects of different policy scenarios on international trade and EU domestic production. In the context of the Impact Asessment process the JRC was requested to simulate via a modelling study the economic impact of selected policy options. Based on a literature review and the specific constraints for this study, the choice was made to perform the analysis through the use of a computable general equilibrium model and focus on the dairy and beef sector. The different model scenarios are constructed based on combinations of the discussed policy options such as a ban or traceability and labelling requirements with the productivity increase associated with cloning. The results show that only the situation where trade with countries using the technique of cloning is suspended has an effect on competitiveness. This suspension could be due to express prohibitions or a de facto decision by exporters when traceability and labelling costs increase. Under this scenario imports drop significantly which is followed by a slight increase in domestic production and prices, especially for beef and cattle.

Boosting the Fertilizer Production in Kenya: a CGE analysis

Food security remains a key challenge in many Sub-Saharan African countries and in Kenya in particular. Kenya addresses this concern with a noteworthy policy mix, aiming at giving to the agricultural sector a leading task in improving food security. In this paper, through a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model specifically modified for the context of developing country analyses, we address the impacts of the construction of a new fertilizer plant on the agricultural sector and the rest of the economy. For the purpose of the study, a desegregated version of a 2014 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) has been developed. Results suggests that increasing domestic production of fertilizers do not fully achieve the objectives of reducing rural poverty and increasing agricultural production without complementary policies that help small-holder farmers to overcome the backward technology trap and give them better access to input and output markets.

Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020 (Summary report)

Analysing stylised scenarios with economic modelling tools reveals complex relations, incentives and trade-offs of the different policy instruments, in particular regarding the environmental dimension. Marginal areas of the EU are most vulnerable to drastic policy changes.

The costs of EU club membership: agri-food and economy-wide impact in Croatia

Over the last 25 years Croatias transition from a war-torn region of the former Yugoslavia to a fully independent nation has left a lasting mark. In 2013 Croatia took another step toward peace and stability by becoming the 28th member of the European Union (EU). Employing a quantitative framework to examine the economic impact of Croatian accession, results show that agricultural transfer payments are a key component of the accession deal, whilst a ‘deep integration’ scenario yields significant Croatian real income gains. Finally, comparing EU market access via tariff and non-tariff shocks, in Croatian agro-food sectors the former has a greater impact on output.