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Featured researches published by Emil D. Attanasi.


AAPG Bulletin | 1994

The Enigma of Oil and Gas Field Growth

Emil D. Attanasi; David H. Root

Growth in estimates of recovery in discovered fields is an important source of annual additions to United States proved reserves. This paper examines historical field growth and presents estimates of future additions to proved reserves from fields discovered before 1992. Field-level data permitted the sample to be partitioned on the basis of recent field growth patterns into outlier and common field sets, and analyzed separately. The outlier field set accounted for less than 15% of resources, yet grew proportionately six times as much as the common fields. Because the outlier field set contained large old heavy-oil fields and old low-permeability gas fields, its future growth is expected to be particularly sensitive to prices. A lower bound of a range of estimates of futu e growth was calculated by applying monotone growth functions computed from the common field set to all fields. Higher growth estimates were obtained by extrapolating growth of the common field set and assuming the outlier fields would maintain the same share of total growth that occurred from 1978 through 1991. By 2020, the two estimates for additions to reserves from pre-1992 fields are 23 and 32 billion bbl of oil in oil fields and 142 and 195 tcf of gas in gas fields.


2004 Survey of Energy Resources (Twentieth Edition) | 2004

Natural Bitumen and Extra-Heavy Oil

Richard F. Meyer; Emil D. Attanasi

Publisher Summary Extra-heavy oil and natural bitumen represent crude oils which have been severely degraded by microbial action, as evidenced by their paucity of low-molecular-weight saturated hydrocarbons. The chemical and physical attributes of extra-heavy oil lead to an array of problems with respect to exploitation, transportation, storage, and refining. This is reflected in the increased cost of extraction and processing and physical limitations on production capacity. Due to the high viscosity of the crude, some form of improved recovery is usually required for production. Two fundamental upgrading processes are presently employed to prepare heavy oil and natural bitumen for transportation and refining to finished products. These processes are carbon rejection and hydrogen addition. Each process improves the hydrogen-to-carbon ratio but by following different paths. New technologies allow production rates comparable to those of conventional oil reservoirs. Major cost-reduction breakthroughs in upgrading, transportation, and refining are enhancing the movement of these hydrocarbons into mainstream world oil supply.


Mathematical Geosciences | 1985

Lognormal field size distributions as a consequence of economic truncation

Emil D. Attanasi; L. J. Drew

The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to resource appraisal and evaluation of exploration strategy by the petroleum industry. However, frequency distributions estimated with observed data and used to justify this hypotheses are conditional. Examination of various observed field size distributions across basins and over time shows that such distributions should be regarded as the end result of an economic filtering process. Commercial discoveries depend on oil and gas prices and field development costs. Some new fields are eliminated due to location, depths, or water depths. This filtering process is called economic truncation. Economic truncation may occur when predictions of a discovery process are passed through an economic appraisal model. We demonstrate that (1) economic resource appraisals, (2) forecasts of levels of petroleum industry activity, and (3) expected benefits of developing and implementing cost reducing technology are sensitive to assumptions made about the nature of that portion of (parent) field size distribution subject to economic truncation.


Science | 1991

Resource Constraints in Petroleum Production Potential

Charles D. Masters; David H. Root; Emil D. Attanasi

Geologic reasons indicate that the dominant position of the Middle East as a source of conventional petroleum will not be changed by new discoveries elsewhere. The share of world crude oil production coming from the Middle East could increase, within 10 to 20 years, to exceed 50 percent, under even modest increases in world consumption. Nonconventional resources of oil exist in large quantities, but because of their low production rates they can at best only mitigate extant trends. Increased production of natural gas outside the United States, however, offers an opportunity for geographically diversified energy supplies in the near future.


Mathematical Geosciences | 1988

Observed oil and gas field size distributions: A consequence of the discovery process and prices of oil and gas

Lawrence J. Drew; Emil D. Attanasi; John H. Schuenemeyer

If observed oil and gas field size distributions are obtained by random samplings, the fitted distributions should approximate that of the parent population of oil and gas fields. However, empirical evidence strongly suggests that larger fields tend to be discovered earlier in the discovery process than they would be by random sampling. Economic factors also can limit the number of small fields that are developed and reported. This paper examines observed size distributions in state and federal waters of offshore Texas. Results of the analysis demonstrate how the shape of the observable size distributions change with significant hydrocarbon price changes. Comparison of state and federal observed size distributions in the offshore area shows how production cost differences also affect the shape of the observed size distribution. Methods for modifying the discovery rate estimation procedures when economic factors significantly affect the discovery sequence are presented. A primary conclusion of the analysis is that, because hydrocarbon price changes can significantly affect the observed discovery size distribution, one should not be confident about inferring the form and specific parameters of the parent field size distribution from the observed distributions.


Mathematical Geosciences | 2002

Comparison of Two Probability Distributions Used to Model Sizes of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Accumulations: Does the Tail Wag the Assessment?

Emil D. Attanasi; Ronald R. Charpentier

Undiscovered oil and gas assessments are commonly reported as aggregate estimates of hydrocarbon volumes. Potential commercial value and discovery costs are, however, determined by accumulation size, so engineers, economists, decision makers, and sometimes policy analysts are most interested in projected discovery sizes. The lognormal and Pareto distributions have been used to model exploration target sizes. This note contrasts the outcomes of applying these alternative distributions to the play level assessments of the U.S. Geological Surveys 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment. Using the same numbers of undiscovered accumulations and the same minimum, medium, and maximum size estimates, substitution of the shifted truncated lognormal distribution for the shifted truncated Pareto distribution reduced assessed undiscovered oil by 16% and gas by 15%. Nearly all of the volume differences resulted because the lognormal had fewer larger fields relative to the Pareto. The lognormal also resulted in a smaller number of small fields relative to the Pareto. For the Permian Basin case study presented here, reserve addition costs were 20% higher with the lognormal size assumption.


AAPG Bulletin | 1993

Small Fields in the National Oil and Gas Assessment

David H. Root; Emil D. Attanasi

In the 1989 National Oil and Gas Assessment prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Minerals Management Service, undiscovered oil and gas resources in small fields were assessed separately from resources in fields containing more than 1 million bbl of oil equivalent. This paper concerns the USGS Part of the study: onshore and state waters in the conterminous United States. After the resources in small fields were assessed by geologists, statistical techniques were used to allocate these resources to field-size distributions at the province level. The total numbers of small fields remaining to be discovered is estimated at about 77,800. They account for about 10.6 billion bbl of oil equivalent or 20% of the undiscovered resources in the conterminous United st tes. When an economic analysis was applied to the small fields, none of the offshore small fields were estimated to be commercially developable. For the onshore study area, about 52% of the small oil fields and 46% of the small gas fields are commercially developable. Overall, because more hydrocarbons are contained in the larger size classes of the small fields, about 70% of the undiscovered resources in small fields is expected to be commercially developable.


Journal of Petroleum Technology | 1981

Economics and Resource Appraisal - The Case of the Permian Basin

Emil D. Attanasi; T.M. Garland; J.H. Wood; W.D. Dietzman; J.N. Hicks

Estimates of oil and gas resources typically are presented in terms of proved and undiscoverd resources. This study presents a methodology for incorporating economic consideratins into resource appraisals for petroleum basins. A cost algorithm is used to calculate estimates of the costs of finding and developing undiscovered oil and gas fields in the Permian basin. The sensitivity of the resource estimates to variations in values of the variables in the costing model was investigated, and the results of this analysis are presented. The model indicates that at prices up to /40/bbl, the total reserves of oil and gas in barrels-of-oil equivalent (BOEs) from future discoveries will be less than 15% of the estimated ultimate recovery from fields discovered before Jan. 1, 1975. Only discoveries to a depth of 20,000 ft were included. 7 refs.


Natural resources research | 2012

Role of Stranded Gas from Central Asia and Russia in Meeting Europe’s Future Import Demand for Gas

Emil D. Attanasi; Philip A. Freeman

Stranded gas is natural gas in discovered fields that is currently not commercially producible for either physical or economic reasons. This study examines stranded gas from Russia and Central Asia and the role it can play in addressing Europe’s growing demand for imported natural gas requiring additional volumes of gas in excess of 130 trillion cubic feet. We find sufficient volumes of stranded gas in fields in the Central Asian state of Turkmenistan in the Amu-Darya Basin and in Russian fields in the West Siberian Basin. The analysis focused on the estimated cost of extraction and delivery to a single market location for various concentrations of gas in stranded gas fields in Central Asia and Russia. At import prices of


Natural resources research | 2012

Empirical Methods for Detecting Regional Trends and Other Spatial Expressions in Antrim Shale Gas Productivity, with Implications for Improving Resource Projections Using Local Nonparametric Estimation Techniques

Philip A. Freeman; Emil D. Attanasi

10 per million British thermal units (MMBTU), there are sufficient gas resources in stranded fields that can be commercially developed and delivered to the European market. If, however, imported gas prices fall below

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Philip A. Freeman

United States Geological Survey

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David H. Root

United States Geological Survey

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Ronald R. Charpentier

United States Geological Survey

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Charles D. Masters

United States Geological Survey

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Mahendra K. Verma

United States Geological Survey

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Troy A. Cook

United States Department of Energy

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Christopher J. Schenk

United States Geological Survey

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Kenneth J. Bird

United States Geological Survey

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Robert T. Ryder

United States Geological Survey

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