Emile J.L. Chappin

Agent-based modelling of energy infrastructure transitions

Transitions emerge over time as fundamental change of large-scale socio-technical systems such as energy infrastructures that are the backbone of society. To date, however, the body-of-knowledge on energy infrastructure transitions is largely descriptive. Transition management, however, does have a prescriptive character - not only can we understand transitions, we can also shape them. This implies technical system design is augmented with policy, regulation, R&D strategies: some coherent all-inclusive set of transition instruments or transition assemblage. We conjecture a transition management strategy may equate to collaborative design of such a transition assemblage. Using foundations of complex systems theory, agent-based modeling, engineering and policy design scenario analysis, design of experiments and statistical data analysis, a modeling framework has been developed that enables ex-ante assessment of alternative transition assemblage design-alternatives.

Climate adaptation of interconnected infrastructures: a framework for supporting governance

Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current body of research on infrastructure adaptation does not adequately account for the interconnectedness of infrastructures, both internally and with one another. We take a step toward addressing this gap through the introduction of a framework for infrastructure adaptation that conceptualizes infrastructures as complex socio-technical “systems of systems” embedded in a changing natural environment. We demonstrate the use of this framework by structuring potential climate change impacts and identifying adaptation options for a preliminary set of cases—road, electricity and drinking water infrastructures. By helping to clarify the relationships between impacts at different levels, we find that the framework facilitates the identification of key nodes in the web of possible impacts and helps in the identification of particularly nocuous weather conditions. We also explore how the framework may be applied more comprehensively to facilitate adaptation governance. We suggest that it may help to ensure that the mental models of stakeholders and the quantitative models of researchers incorporate the essential aspects of interacting climate and infrastructure systems. Further research is necessary to test the framework in these contexts and to determine when and where its application may be most beneficial.

Carbon policies: do they deliver in the long run?

Carbon taxation and emission trading are policy instruments for achieving significant CO2 emission reduction by inducing a shift in technology and fuel choice. Simulations with a quantitative agent-based model of a competitive electricity generation sector show that under both policies CO2 emissions increase for 10-15 years due to the long life cycle of power plants. Dramatic reductions materialize after 20-40 years when a tight cap or sufficient tax level is maintained. When taxes are set equivalent to trading prices, taxation induces earlier investment in CO2 abatement, a better balance between capital and operating costs and lower long-run electricity prices.

Agent-based modeling of energy infrastructure transitions

Transitions emerge over time as fundamental change of large-scale socio-technical systems such as energy infrastructures that are the backbone of society. To date, however, the body-of-knowledge on energy infrastructure transitions is largely descriptive. Transition management, however, does have a prescriptive character - not only can we understand transitions, we can also shape them. This implies technical system design is augmented with policy, regulation, R&D strategies: some coherent all-inclusive set of transition instruments or transition assemblage. We conjecture a transition management strategy may equate to collaborative design of such a transition assemblage. Using foundations of complex systems theory, agent-based modeling, engineering and policy design scenario analysis, design of experiments and statistical data analysis, a modeling framework has been developed that enables ex-ante assessment of alternative transition assemblage design-alternatives.

An Agent Based Model of the System of Electricity Production Systems: Exploring the Impact of CO2 Emission-Trading

To elucidate the impact of CO2 Emission-Trading on the European electricity production system-of-systems an Agent Based Model has been developed. The model emulates the long-term evolution of the European electricity production system-of-systems as a series of investment decisions by independent agents. Simulation results are reported that underpin recommendations for European CO2-policy. A live model will be presented.

New Methods for Analysis of Systems-of-Systems and Policy: The Power of Systems Theory,Crowd Sourcing and Data Management

Our world is a complex socio-technical system-of-systems (Chappin & Dijkema, 2007; Nikolic, 2009). Embedded within the geological, chemical and biological planetary context, the physical infrastructures, such as power grids or transport networks span the globe with energy and material flows. Social networks in the form of global commerce and the Internet blanket the planet in information flows. While parts of these global social and technical systems have been consciously engineered and managed, the overall system-of-systems (SoS) is emergent: it has no central coordinator or manager. The emergence of this socio-technical SoS has not been without consequences: the human species is currently facing a series of global challenges, such as resource depletion, environmental pollution and climate change. Tackling these issues requires active policy and management of those socio-technical SoS. But how are we to design policies if policy makers and managers have a limited span of control over small parts of the global system of systems?

On the design of system transitions Is Transition Management in the energy domain feasible

The primary objective of Transition Management appears to be dasiato manage transitions towards sustainability.psila The emerging body-of-knowledge on system transitions to date remains largely descriptive, however. We propose a research agenda to develop a prescriptive system transition body-of-knowledge, which eventually will provide handles for policy makers to push and pull transitions. This agenda is developed by focusing on energy systems. We conjecture it is always socio-technical systems that are the subject of transition. We define a system transition as a structural change in both technical and social subsystems. We conclude that shared definitions must be developed of indicators of sustainability performance of systems in transition. Secondly, an understanding and recognition of the socio-technical design space is required. The design space for energy systems includes technological structure and content, policy, regulation and market design and social innovation. The combination and interrelation of these must be recognized and its use suitably underpinned, for example by exploratory simulation models and games that would allow ex-ante testing of transition policies and management.

The Emergence of Climate Change Mitigation Action by Society: An Agent-Based Scenario Discovery Study

Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two factors imply that the overarching dynamics of society’s response to climate change are unpredictable. In contrast to conventional processes of developing scenarios, in this study the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society has been represented in an agent-based model with which we developed two narratives of the emergence of climate change mitigation action by applying exploratory modelling and analysis. The agent-based model represents a two-level game involving governments and citizens changing their emission behaviour in the face of climate change through mitigation action. Insights gained from the exploration on uncertainties pertaining to the system have been used to construct two internally consistent and plausible narratives on the pathways of the emergence of mitigation action, which, as we argue, are a reasonable summary of the uncertainty space. The first narrative highlights how and when strong mitigation action emerges while the second narrative highlights how and when weak mitigation action emerges. In contrast to a conventional scenario development process, these two scenarios have been discovered bottom up rather than being defined top down. They succinctly capture the possible outcomes of the emergence of climate change mitigation by society across a large range of uncertain factors. The narratives therefore help in conveying the consequences of the various uncertainties influencing the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society.

Simulating climate and energy policy with agent-based modelling: The Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab)

We present an approach to simulate climate and energy policy for the EU, using a flexible and modular agent-based modelling approach and a toolbox, called the Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab). The paper shortly reviews core challenges and approaches for modelling climate and energy policy in light of the energy transition. Afterwards, we present an agent-based model of investment in power generation that has addressed a variety of European energy policy questions. We describe the development of a flexible model core as well as modules on carbon and renewables policies, capacity mechanisms, investment behaviour and representation of intermittent renewables. We present an overview of modelling results, ongoing projects, a case study on current reforms of the EU ETS, and we show their relevance in the EU context.

Exploring homeowners' insulation activity

Insulating existing buildings offers great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting Germany’s climate protection targets. Previous research suggests that, since homeowners’ decision-making processes are inadequately understood as yet, today’s incentives aiming at increasing insulation activity lead to unsatisfactory results. We developed an agent-based model to foster the understanding of homeowners’ decision-making processes regarding insulation and to explore how situational factors, such as the structural condition of houses and social interaction, influence their insulation activity. Simulation experiments allow us furthermore to study the influence of socio-spatial structures such as residential segregation and population density on the diffusion of renovation behavior among homeowners. Based on the insights gained, we derive recommendations for designing innovative policy instruments. We conclude that the success of particular policy instruments aiming at increasing homeowners’ insulation activity in a specific region depends on the socio-spatial structure at hand, and that reducing financial constraints only has a relatively low potential for increasing Germany’s insulation rate. Policy instruments should also target the fact that specific renovation occasions are used to undertake additional insulation activities, e.g. by incentivizing lenders and craftsmen to advise homeowners to have insulation installed.