Emilio Casetti

Applications of the Expansion Method

1. An Introduction to the Expansion Method and to its Applications Emilio Casetti and John Paul Jones III 2. The Dual Expansion Method: An Application for Evaluating the Effects of Population Growth on Development Emilio Casetti 3. Paradigmatic Dimensions of the Expansion Method John Paul Jones III 4. A Contextual Expansion of the Welfare Model Janet E. Kodras 5. A Comparison of Drift Analyses and the Expansion Method: The Evaluation of Federal Policies on the Supply of Physicians Stuart A. Foster, Wilpen L. Gorr and Francis C. Wimberly 6. Personal Characteristics in Models of Migration Decisions: An Analysis of Destination Choice in Ecuador Mark Ellis and John Odland 7. Alternative Approaches to the Study of Metropolitan Decentralization Shaul Krakover 8. Long Wave Spatial and Economic Relationships in Urban Development Shaul Krakover and Richard L. Morrill 9. An Investigation of the Dynamics of Development Inequalities via Expanded Rank-Size Functions C. Cindy Fan 10. Identifying Hierarchical Development Trends in the Hungarian Urban System using the Expansion Method Darrick R. Danta 11. An Exploration of the Relationship between Sectoral Labor Shares and Economic Development Kavita Pandit 12. Production Function Estimation and the Spatial Structural of Agriculture Sent Visser 13. Incorporating the Expansion Method into Remote Sensing-Based Water Quality Analyses Marty Miles, Douglas A. Stow and John Paul Jones III 14. Innovation Diffusion Theory and the Expansion Method Michael Sonis 15. Spatial Dependence and Spatial Heterogegity: Model Specification Issues in the Spatial Expansion Paradigm Luc Anselin 16. Generating Varying Parameter Models using Cubic Spline Functions Robert Q. Hanham

The Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of U.S. Regional Income Inequality, 1950-1989

The inverted-U hypothesis which so influenced research on regional income inequality is obsolete and does not predict or explain the recent rise in regional inequality. We argue that the regional dynamics literature on polarization, polarization reversal and spatial restructuring offers more powerful explanations to changes in regional income inequality. In addition to the conventional approach of measuring systemic inequality, the empirical analysis in this paper emphasizes inequality variations, which put into focus the interplay between regional dynamics and regional income inequality. The findings highlight the impact of sectoral shifts and global spatial restructuring on the US regional economy, where new cores of growth and renewed growth are emerging.

The Dual Expansion Method: An Application for Evaluating the Effects of Population Growth on Development

The dual expansion method is an extension of the expansion method, a technique for creating or modifying mathematical models. The dual expansions method builds upon the proposition that when an expansion is defined, a dual expansion is also implicitly defined, much in the same way as dual mathematical programming formulations are implied by primal ones. Several uses of the dual expansions method are outlined and one of them is demonstrated. The dual expansion method is applied to investigating the effects of the rate of population growth on the rate of economic development. The findings obtained reveal significant negative effects of population growth on development that contrast with the inconclusive results of related empirical analyses reported in the literature.

Equilibrium Land Values and Population Densities in an Urban Setting

upon a mathematically operational formulation of the concept of spatial equilibrium. Valuable by-products of the approach are spatial equilibrium functions relating the population size of cities to the optimal utility level of the households. In particular, an interesting result is obtained: everything else being equal, the larger the population of a city, the lower the optimal utility level that its households are able to attain.

Optimal Transportation Patterns of Coal in the Great Lakes Region

centers throughout the region. This demand is associated with the coking plants and utility plants in the region. Second, the productive capacities and rates on the major transportation routes are given. These particular empirical features of the coal distribution system do not appear to have been described elsewhere in the geographic literature. It should be stressed that the major emphasis in the paper is on the actual modelling of a real-world problem situation, namely the determination of optimal transportation patterns of coal in a region. The model which is formulated is partially tested with some real-world data in the latter half of the paper. There are many subtleties in the actual rate structure and rail-ownership patterns that could not be taken into account given the constraints under which this project was carried out. The results presented here, however, illustrate the power of this approach.

Power Shifts and Economic Development: When Will China Overtake the USA?

A dynamic pattern that historically played an important role in the rise and fall of the major powers involves the early attainment of power supremacy by comparatively small countries that developed earlier and subsequently lost their status to larger countries that developed later. Cases in point are the staggered rise in power of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, and their subsequent loss of status to the USA and the USSR. The development of China and, at some point in the future, of India has the potential of pushing these countries to superpower status while pushing the USA and a revitalized Russia to substantially lower power ranks. If this sequence of events comes to pass, it will fit the same fundamental dynamics that rendered the USA and the USSR superpowers to begin with. The thesis that the economic development of large countries can produce power shifts of major consequence is the focal theme of this article. First, this thesis is discussed in general terms, is related to a number of literatures from several disciplines, and is validated using an econometric model and empirical data. Then, the thesis is brought to bear upon the USA/China ‘case’. In this connection, the USA/China shifts in power capabilities that have occurred during the past 50 years are documented and extrapolated over the 1995–2050 time-horizon. The extrapolations are based on seven projections that span diverse presuppositions, assumptions, and approaches. The conceptual and analytical generalities, the empirical analyses, and the forecasts presented suggest the possibility that China will acquire power superiority over the USA within the next half-century.

Manufacturing Productivity and Snowbelt-Sunbelt Shifts

Historically, population and jobs tended to concentrate in the old industrial core regions of the United States. A reversal of this trend materialized in the mid-sixties, when some portions of the Sunbelt emerged as the major growth areas in this country. According to the Verdoorn law, productivity grows faster in economic sectors that are in the process of expanding. This paper investigates the spatial validity of the Verdoorn law and its relation to the Snowbelt-Sunbelt shifts.

A Formalization and Test of the "Hollow Frontier" Hypothesis

A persistent theme in Brazilian agricultural development is the presence of a “hollow frontier.” Although the concept was proposed almost forty years ago, there has been little empirical testing of its basic tenets. In this paper the hypothesis tested is that a maximum production ridge advances over time away from the areas of initial cultivation in the State of Sāo Paulo. The results of the analysis confirm the presence of a “hollow frontier” in all time periods. Several generally recognized impressions of declining production behind the advancing frontier are substantiated.

Testing Hypotheses of Polarized Growth within a Central Place Hierarchy

A general method for testing hypotheses about spatial polarization with respect to an exogenously determined growth pole already has been published [3] and later extended to encompass a multiplicity of poles of different orders [4]. In this paper the method is extended to allow for the testing of hierarchical polarized growth. The latter is here defined as the dynamic pattern in a central place setting wherein the level of growth at any point in the region is a function of distances from the nearest centers of each order in the hierarchy. Only points that are low order central places, and only distances to central places of higher order will be considered here, but no conceptual difficulty is involved in extending the method to any points and to central places of any order. The method is outlined and then applied to test hypotheses of hierarchical polarized

Spatial parameter variation by Orthogonal Trend Surface Expansions: An application to the analysis of welfare program participation rates

Abstract This paper describes Orthogonal Trend Surface Expansions (OTSEs), a technique for investigating the spatial variation of a models parameters. OTSEs implement in spatial contexts the Expansion Methods approach to the study of parametric stability/drift. Here OTSEs are used to test for parameter variation in a model of participation in Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), a large U.S. welfare program.