Emilio Hernández-García

Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification

There is an apparent gap between the prominence of present theoretical frameworks involving ecological thresholds and regime shifts, and the paucity of efforts to conduct simple tests and quantitative inferences on the actual appearance of such phenomena in ecological data. A wide range of statistical methods and analytical techniques are now available that render these questions tractable, some of them even dating back half a century. Yet, their application has been sparse and confined within a narrow subset of cases of ecological regime shifts. Our objective is to raise awareness on the range of techniques available, and to their principles and limitations, to promote a more operational approach to the identification of ecological thresholds and regime shifts.

Top marine predators track Lagrangian coherent structures

Meso- and submesoscales (fronts, eddies, filaments) in surface ocean flow have a crucial influence on marine ecosystems. Their dynamics partly control the foraging behavior and the displacement of marine top predators (tuna, birds, turtles, and cetaceans). In this work we focus on the role of submesoscale structures in the Mozambique Channel in the distribution of a marine predator, the Great Frigatebird. Using a newly developed dynamic concept, the finite-size Lyapunov exponent (FSLE), we identified Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) present in the surface flow in the channel over a 2-month observation period (August and September 2003). By comparing seabird satellite positions with LCS locations, we demonstrate that frigatebirds track precisely these structures in the Mozambique Channel, providing the first evidence that a top predator is able to track these FSLE ridges to locate food patches. After comparing bird positions during long and short trips and different parts of these trips, we propose several hypotheses to understand how frigatebirds can follow these LCSs. The birds might use visual and/or olfactory cues and/or atmospheric current changes over the structures to move along these biologic corridors. The birds being often associated with tuna schools around foraging areas, a thorough comprehension of their foraging behavior and movement during the breeding season is crucial not only to seabird ecology but also to an appropriate ecosystemic approach to fisheries in the channel.

Network analysis identifies weak and strong links in a metapopulation system

The identification of key populations shaping the structure and connectivity of metapopulation systems is a major challenge in population ecology. The use of molecular markers in the theoretical framework of population genetics has allowed great advances in this field, but the prime question of quantifying the role of each population in the system remains unresolved. Furthermore, the use and interpretation of classical methods are still bounded by the need for a priori information and underlying assumptions that are seldom respected in natural systems. Network theory was applied to map the genetic structure in a metapopulation system by using microsatellite data from populations of a threatened seagrass, Posidonia oceanica, across its whole geographical range. The network approach, free from a priori assumptions and from the usual underlying hypotheses required for the interpretation of classical analyses, allows both the straightforward characterization of hierarchical population structure and the detection of populations acting as hubs critical for relaying gene flow or sustaining the metapopulation system. This development opens perspectives in ecology and evolution in general, particularly in areas such as conservation biology and epidemiology, where targeting specific populations is crucial.

Analytical and Numerical Studies of Noise-induced Synchronization of Chaotic Systems

We study the effect that the injection of a common source of noise has on the trajectories of chaotic systems, addressing some contradictory results present in the literature. We present particular examples of one-dimensional maps and the Lorenz system, both in the chaotic region, and give numerical evidence showing that the addition of a common noise to different trajectories, which start from different initial conditions, leads eventually to their perfect synchronization. When synchronization occurs, the largest Lyapunov exponent becomes negative. For a simple map we are able to show this phenomenon analytically. Finally, we analyze the structural stability of the phenomenon. (c) 2001 American Institute of Physics.

How reliable are finite-size Lyapunov exponents for the assessment of ocean dynamics?

Abstract Much of atmospheric and oceanic transport is associated with coherent structures. Lagrangian methods are emerging as optimal tools for their identification and analysis. An important Lagrangian technique which is starting to be widely used in oceanography is that of finite-size Lyapunov exponents (FSLEs). Despite this growing relevance there are still many open questions concerning the reliability of the FSLEs in order to analyse the ocean dynamics. In particular, it is still unclear how robust they are when confronted with real data. In this paper we analyze the effect on this Lagrangian technique of the two most important effects when facing real data, namely noise and dynamics of unsolved scales. Our results, using as a benchmark data from a primitive numerical model of the Mediterranean Sea, show that even when some dynamics is missed the FSLEs results still give an accurate picture of the oceanic transport properties.

Forecasting the SST Space-time variability of the Alboran Sea with genetic algorithms

We propose a nonlinear ocean forecasting technique based on a combination of genetic algorithms and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The method is used to forecast the space-time variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Alboran Sea. The genetic algorithm finds the equations that best describe the behaviour of the different temporal amplitude functions in the EOF decomposition and, therefore, enables global forecasting of the future time-variability.

Hydrodynamic provinces and oceanic connectivity from a transport network help designing marine reserves

Oceanic dispersal and connectivity have been identified as crucial factors for structuring marine populations and designing marine protected areas (MPAs). Focusing on larval dispersal by ocean currents, we propose an approach coupling Lagrangian transport and new tools from Network Theory to characterize marine connectivity in the Mediterranean basin. Larvae of different pelagic durations and seasons are modeled as passive tracers advected in a simulated oceanic surface flow from which a network of connected areas is constructed. Hydrodynamical provinces extracted from this network are delimited by frontiers which match multiscale oceanographic features. By examining the repeated occurrence of such boundaries, we identify the spatial scales and geographic structures that would control larval dispersal across the entire seascape. Based on these hydrodynamical units, we study novel connectivity metrics for existing reserves. Our results are discussed in the context of ocean biogeography and MPAs design, having ecological and managerial implications.

Spectrum of genetic diversity and networks of clonal organisms

Clonal reproduction characterizes a wide range of species including clonal plants in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and clonal microbes such as bacteria and parasitic protozoa, with a key role in human health and ecosystem processes. Clonal organisms present a particular challenge in population genetics because, in addition to the possible existence of replicates of the same genotype in a given sample, some of the hypotheses and concepts underlying classical population genetics models are irreconcilable with clonality. The genetic structure and diversity of clonal populations were examined using a combination of new tools to analyse microsatellite data in the marine angiosperm Posidonia oceanica. These tools were based on examination of the frequency distribution of the genetic distance among ramets, termed the spectrum of genetic diversity (GDS), and of networks built on the basis of pairwise genetic distances among genets. Clonal growth and outcrossing are apparently dominant processes, whereas selfing and somatic mutations appear to be marginal, and the contribution of immigration seems to play a small role in adding genetic diversity to populations. The properties and topology of networks based on genetic distances showed a ‘small-world’ topology, characterized by a high degree of connectivity among nodes, and a substantial amount of substructure, revealing organization in subfamilies of closely related individuals. The combination of GDS and network tools proposed here helped in dissecting the influence of various evolutionary processes in shaping the intra-population genetic structure of the clonal organism investigated; these therefore represent promising analytical tools in population genetics.

Species clustering in competitive Lotka-Volterra models.

We study the properties of general Lotka-Volterra models with competitive interactions. The intensity of the competition depends on the position of species in an abstract niche space through an interaction kernel. We show analytically and numerically that the properties of these models change dramatically when the Fourier transform of this kernel is not positive definite, due to a pattern-forming instability. We estimate properties of the species distributions, such as the steady number of species and their spacings, for different types of interactions, including stretched exponential and constant kernels.

Lagrangian transport through an ocean front in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Abstract With the tools of lobe dynamics, the authors analyze the structures present in the velocity field obtained from a numerical simulation of the surface circulation in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. In particular, focus is placed on the North Balearic Front, the westernmost part of the transition zone between saltier and fresher waters in the western Mediterranean, which is here interpreted in terms of the presence of a semipermanent “Lagrangian barrier,” across which little transport occurs. Identified are relevant hyperbolic trajectories and their manifolds, and it is shown that the transport mechanism known as the turnstile, previously identified in abstract dynamical systems and simplified model flows, is also at work in this complex and realistic ocean flow. In addition, nonlinear dynamics techniques are shown to be powerful enough to identify the key geometric structures in this part of the Mediterranean. The construction also reveals the spatiotemporal routes along which this transport h...