Emilios C. Galariotis

Contrarian Profits and the Overreaction Hypothesis: the Case of the Athens Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the existence of contrarian profits and their sources for the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). The empirical analysis decomposes contrarian profits to sources due to common factor reactions, overreaction to firm-specific information, and profits not related to the previous two terms, as suggested by Jegadeesh and Titman (1995). Furthermore, in view of recent evidence that common stock returns are related to firm characteristics such as size and book-to-market equity, the paper decomposes contrarian profits to sources due to factors derived from the Fama and French (1993, 1996) three-factor model. For the empirical testing, size-sorted sub-samples that are rebalanced annually are employed, and in addition, adjustments for thin and infrequent trading are made to the data. The results indicate that serial correlation is present in equity returns and that it leads to significant short-run contrarian profits that persist even after we adjust for market frictions. Consistent with findings for the US market, contrarian profits decline as one moves from small stocks to large stocks, but only when market frictions are considered. Furthermore, the contribution to contrarian profits due to the overreaction to the firm-specific component appears larger than the underreaction to the common factors.

Multiple criteria decision aiding for finance: An updated bibliographic survey

Finance is a popular field for applied and methodological research involving multiple criteria decision aiding (MCDA) techniques. In this study we present an up-to-date bibliographic survey of the contributions of MCDA in financial decision making, focusing on the developments during the past decade. The survey covers all main areas of financial modeling as well as the different methodological approaches in MCDA and its connections with other analytical fields. On the basis of the survey results, we discuss the contributions of MCDA in different areas of financial decision making and identify established and emerging research topics, as well as future opportunities and challenges.

Liquidity Commonality in the London Stock Exchange

A number of events such as the international market crash of October 1987 and the 1997 East Asian crisis show that individual firm liquidity is affected by market-wide factors. However, research in systematic liquidity is still at an embryonic stage and given the gap in the literature, the paper offers first time evidence (to the best of our knowledge) on the presence of systematic liquidity in the UK using FTSE100 and FTSE250 stocks. The unique setting of the London Stock Exchange as regards changes in trading regimes, allows an original answer as to whether changes in the nature of market making from obligatory to non-obligatory, affect commonality in liquidity. Results indicate that commonality is quite strong for FTSE100 stocks at individual and portfolio level, while for the FTSE250 it is strong only at portfolio level. Overall commonality is on average similar across trading regimes, irrespective of the nature of the provision of liquidity.

Short-term overreaction, underreaction and efficient reaction: evidence from the London Stock Exchange

We examine short-term investor reaction to extreme events in the UK equity market for the period 1989 to 2004 and find that the market reaction to shocks for large capitalization stock portfolios is consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis, i.e. all information appears to be incorporated in prices on the same day. However, for medium and small capitalization stock portfolios our results indicate significant underreaction to both positive and negative shocks for many days subsequent to a shock. Furthermore, the underreaction is not explained by risk factors (e.g. Fama and French, 1996) calendar effects, bid-ask biases or unique global financial crises.

Inferring Robust Decision Models in Multicriteria Classification Problems: An Experimental Analysis

Recent research on robust decision aiding has focused on identifying a range of recommendations from preferential information and the selection of representative models compatible with preferential constraints. This study presents an experimental analysis on the relationship between the results of a single decision model (additive value function) and the ones from the full set of compatible models in classification problems. Different optimization formulations for selecting a representative model are tested on artificially generated data sets with varying characteristics.

Sources of contrarian profits and return predictability in emerging markets

Acknowledging a gap in the literature, the study performs an investigation on short-term contrarian profits and their sources for the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). The methodology is based on Jegadeesh and Titman (Review of Financial Studies, 8, 973–93, 1995); however, this paper employs annually rebalanced size-sorted subsamples instead of a one-off arrangement throughout the sample period. Other key contributions relate to: (a) testing the effect on the empirical results of the choice of an equally as opposed to a value weighted index as a proxy for the market portfolio, and (b) testing for the January effect following the ongoing discussion and disagreement in the literature on seasonality. Empirical findings suggest that short-run contrarian profits are present in the ASE. Furthermore, although both underreaction to common factors and overreaction to the firm-specific return component, appear to contribute to profits; the contribution of overreaction is much larger than that of underreaction. Not only so, but any contribution of the later is restricted to the month of January. Seasonality however has no effect on firm specific overreaction. The selection of a value weighted or an equally weighted index does not alter the main findings, and thus does not explain predictability for this market.

A novel multi-attribute benchmarking approach for assessing the financial performance of local governments: Empirical evidence from France

The financial health of local governments has attracted considerable interest over the past couple of decades. In this study, we follow a benchmarking perspective and introduce a multi-attribute financial evaluation model that allows peer assessments to be made, including comparisons over time, while differentiating between managerial performance and the effect of the external environment. The model is applied to a large database involving the entire population of French municipalities over the period 2000–2012 to assess how the reforms implemented over the past decade (taxation and decentralization) have affected the financial performance of local governments in France. The findings are of particular interest to both the academia and policymakers including local public authorities and central governments.

Recent Advances in Lending to the Poor with Asymmetric Information

Abstract  Microfinance institutions have successfully extended unsecured small loans to poor and opaque borrowers at the bottom of the economic pyramid. This success is largely due to innovative financial contracts that impose joint liability and create dynamic incentives to mitigate the effects of asymmetric information. Given recent advances in microfinance contracts, there is a need to map the theoretical developments. This article aims to accomplish that by performing a critical literature survey of microlending contracts, focussing on joint liability and dynamic incentives, bringing out some of the deficiencies of contract-theoretic propositions that cannot effectively account for the social mission of microfinance.

Contrarian and momentum trading: a review of the literature

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to critically review the literature on contrarian and momentum trading strategies and identify areas for future research. Design/methodology/approach - – Critical review and discussion of the literature. Findings - – The extant literature is dynamic and is typified by a number of open questions. Research limitations/implications - – The open questions in the literature relate mainly to the driving forces of investment performance, and the role of risk and asset pricing as well as behavioral human traits. The literature is vast and therefore difficult to classify, cover and discuss. Practical implications - – The paper indicates the possible need for: the development of different asset pricing models and propositions that can have practical implications at a more international context. Originality/value - – The paper provides a critical review of the literature and identifies open issues for future research.

The effect of time-varying risk on the profitability of contrarian investment strategies in a thinly traded market: a Kalman filter approach

On face value studies documenting contrarian profits challenge the efficient markets paradigm. However most of them assume that systematic risk is constant when in reality it varies (Ross, 1989) especially in emerging markets (Aggarwal et al., 1999). The study in the first instance investigates whether there are long-term contrarian profits in a thinly traded market, and whether such profits can be rationalized by time variation in risk using a Kalman Filtering approach. The results indicate that failing to incorporate time variation in risk may lead to biased conclusions and present false evidence against the Efficient Market Hypothesis.