Emily K. Heyerdahl

Contingent Pacific–Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America

Widespread synchronous wildfires driven by climatic variation, such as those that swept western North America during 1996, 2000, and 2002, can result in major environmental and societal impacts. Understanding relationships between continental-scale patterns of drought and modes of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may explain how interannual to multidecadal variability in SSTs drives fire at continental scales. We used local wildfire chronologies reconstructed from fire scars on tree rings across western North America and independent reconstructions of SST developed from tree-ring widths at other sites to examine the relationships of multicentury patterns of climate and fire synchrony. From 33,039 annually resolved fire-scar dates at 238 sites (the largest paleofire record yet assembled), we examined forest fires at regional and subcontinental scales. Since 1550 CE, drought and forest fires covaried across the West, but in a manner contingent on SST modes. During certain phases of ENSO and PDO, fire was synchronous within broad subregions and sometimes asynchronous among those regions. In contrast, fires were most commonly synchronous across the West during warm phases of the AMO. ENSO and PDO were the main drivers of high-frequency variation in fire (interannual to decadal), whereas the AMO conditionally changed the strength and spatial influence of ENSO and PDO on wildfire occurrence at multidecadal scales. A current warming trend in AMO suggests that we may expect an increase in widespread, synchronous fires across the western U.S. in coming decades.

Both topography and climate affected forest and woodland burn severity in two regions of the western US, 1984 to 2006

Fire is a keystone process in many ecosystems of western North America. Severe fires kill and consume large amounts of above- and belowground biomass and affect soils, resulting in long-lasting consequences for vegetation, aquatic ecosystem productivity and diversity, and other ecosystem properties. We analyzed the occurrence of, and trends in, satellite-derived burn severity across six ecoregions in the Southwest and Northwest regions of the United States from 1984 to 2006 using data from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project. Using 1,024 fires from the Northwest (4,311,871 ha) and 497 fires from the Southwest (1,434,670 ha), we examined the relative influence of fine-scale topography and coarse-scale weather and climate on burn severity (the degree of change from before the fire to one year after) using the Random Forest machine learning algorithm. Together, topography, climate, and weather explained severe fire occurrence with classification accuracies ranging from 68% to 84%. Topographic variables were relatively more important predictors of severe fire occurrence than either climate or weather variables. Predictability of severe fire was consistently lower during years with widespread fires, suggesting that local control exerted by topography may be overwhelmed by regional climatic controls when fires burn in dry conditions. Annually, area burned severely was strongly correlated with area burned in all ecoregions (Pearsons correlation 0.86–0.97; p < 0.001), while the proportion of area burned severely was significantly correlated with area burned only in two ecoregions (p ≤ 0.037). During our short time series, only ecoregions in the Southwest showed evidence of a significant increase (p ≤ 0.036) in annual area burned and area burned severely, and annual proportion burned severely increased in just one of the three Southwest ecoregions. We suggest that predictive mapping of the potential for severe fire is possible, and will be improved with climate data at the scale of the topographic and Landsat-derived burn severity data. Although severity is a value-laden term implying negative ecosystem effects, we stress that severity can be objectively measured and recognize that high severity fire is an important ecological process within the historical range of variability in some ecosystems.

Multi‐scale controls of historical forest‐fire regimes: new insights from fire‐scar networks

Anticipating future forest-fire regimes under changing climate requires that scientists and natural resource managers understand the factors that control fire across space and time. Fire scars – proxy records of fires, formed in the growth rings of long-lived trees – provide an annually accurate window into past low-severity fire regimes. In western North America, networks of the fire-scar records spanning centuries to millennia now include hundreds to thousands of trees sampled across hundreds to many thousands of hectares. Development of these local and regional fire-scar networks has created a new data type for ecologists interested in landscape and climate regulation of ecosystem processes – which, for example, may help to explain why forest fires are widespread during certain years but not others. These data also offer crucial reference information on fire as a dynamic landscape process for use in ecosystem management, especially when managing for forest structure and resilience to climate change.

MULTI-SEASON CLIMATE SYNCHRONIZED FOREST FIRES THROUGHOUT THE 20TH CENTURY, NORTHERN ROCKIES, USA

We inferred climate drivers of 20th-century years with regionally synchronous forest fires in the U.S. northern Rockies. We derived annual fire extent from an existing fire atlas that includes 5038 fire polygons recorded from 12,070,086 ha, or 71% of the forested land in Idaho and Montana west of the Continental Divide. The 11 regional-fire years, those exceeding the 90th percentile in annual fire extent from 1900 to 2003 (>102,314 ha or approximately 1% of the fire atlas recording area), were concentrated early and late in the century (six from 1900 to 1934 and five from 1988 to 2003). During both periods, regional-fire years were ones when warm springs were followed by warm, dry summers and also when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was positive. Spring snowpack was likely reduced during warm springs and when PDO was positive, resulting in longer fire seasons. Regional-fire years did not vary with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or with climate in antecedent years. The long mid-20th century period lacking regional-fire years (1935-1987) had generally cool springs, generally negative PDO, and a lack of extremely dry summers; also, this was a period of active fire suppression. The climate drivers of regionally synchronous fire that we inferred are congruent with those of previous centuries in this region, suggesting a strong influence of spring and summer climate on fire activity throughout the 20th century despite major land-use change and fire suppression efforts. The relatively cool, moist climate during the mid-century gap in regional-fire years likely contributed to the success of fire suppression during that period. In every regional-fire year, fires burned across a range of vegetation types. Given our results and the projections for warmer springs and continued warm, dry summers, forests of the U.S. northern Rockies are likely to experience synchronous, large fires in the future.

Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland northwest (1651-1900)

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MULTI-SEASON CLIMATE SYNCHRONIZED HISTORICAL FIRES IN DRY FORESTS (1650–1900), NORTHERN ROCKIES, USA

Our objective was to infer the climate drivers of regionally synchronous fire years in dry forests of the U.S. northern Rockies in Idaho and western Montana. During our analysis period (1650-1900), we reconstructed fires from 9245 fire scars on 576 trees (mostly ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) at 21 sites and compared them to existing tree-ring reconstructions of climate (temperature and the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) and large-scale climate patterns that affect modern spring climate in this region (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]). We identified 32 regional-fire years as those with five or more sites with fire. Fires were remarkably widespread during such years, including one year (1748) in which fires were recorded at 10 sites across what are today seven national forests plus one site on state land. During regional-fire years, spring-summers were significantly warm and summers were significantly warm-dry whereas the opposite conditions prevailed during the 99 years when no fires were recorded at any of our sites (no-fire years). Climate in prior years was not significantly associated with regional- or no-fire years. Years when fire was recorded at only a few of our sites occurred under a broad range of climate conditions, highlighting the fact that the regional climate drivers of fire are most evident when fires are synchronized across a large area. No-fire years tended to occur during La Niña years, which tend to have anomalously deep snowpacks in this region. However, ENSO was not a significant driver of regional-fire years, consistent with the greater influence of La Niña than El Niño conditions on the spring climate of this region. PDO was not a significant driver of past fire, despite being a strong driver of modern spring climate and modern regional-fire years in the northern Rockies.

Fine-scale variation of historical fire regimes in sagebrush-steppe and juniper woodland: An example from California, USA

Coarse-scale estimates of fire intervals across the mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata spp. vaseyana (Rydb.) Beetle) alliance range from decades to centuries. However, soil depth and texture can affect the abundance and continuity of fine fuels and vary at fine spatial scales, suggesting fire regimes may vary at similar scales. We explored variation in fire frequency across 4000 ha in four plant associations with differing soils in which mountain big sagebrush and western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis subsp. occidentalis Hook.) were diagnostic or a transitory component. We reconstructed fire frequency from fire-scarred ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) in one association. The other three associations lacked fire-scarred trees so we inferred fire frequency from establishment or death dates of western juniper and a model of the rate of post-fire succession we developed from current vegetation along a chronosequence of time-since-fire. Historical fire frequency varied at fine spatial scales in response to soil-driven variation in fuel abundance and continuity and spanned the range of frequencies currently debated. Fire intervals ranged from decades in areas of deep, productive soils where fine fuels were likely abundant and continuous, to centuries in areas of shallow, coarse soils where fine fuel was likely limited.

Climate effects on historical fires (1630-1900) in Utah

We inferred climate effects on fire occurrence from 1630 to 1900 for a new set of crossdated fire-scar chronologies from 18 forested sites in Utah and one site in eastern Nevada. Years with regionally synchronous fires (31 years with fire at ≥20% of sites) occurred during drier than average summers and years with no fires at any site (100 years) were wetter than average. Antecedent wet summers were associated with regional-fire years in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forest types, possibly by affecting fine fuel amount and continuity. NINO3 (an index of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, ENSO) was significantly low during regional-fire years (La Ninas) and significantly high during non-fire years (El Ninos). NINO3 also was high during years before regional-fire years. Although regional fire years occurred nearly twice as often as expected when NINO3 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation were both in their cool (negative) phases, this pattern was not statistically significant. Palmer Drought Severity Index was important for fire occurrence in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests across the study area but ENSO forcing was seen only in south-eastern sites. Results support findings from previous fire and climate studies, including a possible geographic pivot point in Pacific basin teleconnections at ~40°N.

Mixed-conifer forests of central Oregon: effects of logging and fire exclusion vary with environment

Twentieth-century land management has altered the structure and composition of mixed-conifer forests and decreased their resilience to fire, drought, and insects in many parts of the Interior West. These forests occur across a wide range of environmental settings and historical disturbance regimes, so their response to land management is likely to vary across landscapes and among ecoregions. However, this variation has not been well characterized and hampers the development of appropriate management and restoration plans. We identified mixed-conifer types in central Oregon based on historical structure and composition, and successional trajectories following recent changes in land use, and evaluated how these types were distributed across environmental gradients. We used field data from 171 sites sampled across a range of environmental settings in two subregions: the eastern Cascades and the Ochoco Mountains. We identified four forest types in the eastern Cascades and four analogous types with lower densities in the Ochoco Mountains. All types historically contained ponderosa pine, but differed in the historical and modern proportions of shade-tolerant vs. shade-intolerant tree species. The Persistent Ponderosa Pine and Recent Douglas-fir types occupied relatively hot–dry environments compared to Recent Grand Fir and Persistent Shade Tolerant sites, which occupied warm–moist and cold–wet environments, respectively. Twentieth-century selective harvesting halved the density of large trees, with some variation among forest types. In contrast, the density of small trees doubled or tripled early in the 20th century, probably due to land-use change and a relatively cool, wet climate. Contrary to the common perception that dry ponderosa pine forests are the most highly departed from historical conditions, we found a greater departure in the modern composition of small trees in warm–moist environments than in either hot–dry or cold–wet environments. Furthermore, shade-tolerant trees began infilling earlier in cold–wet than in hot–dry environments and also in topographically shaded sites in the Ochoco Mountains. Our new classification could be used to prioritize management that seeks to restore structure and composition or create resilience in mixed-conifer forests of the region.

Historical Meadow Dynamics in Southwest British Columbia: a Multidisciplinary Analysis

The recent encroachment of woody species threatening many western North American meadows has been attributed to diverse factors. We used a suite of methods in Chittenden Meadow, southwestern British Columbia, Canada, to identify the human, ecological, and physical factors responsible for its historical dynamics and current encroachment by woody vegetation. We evaluated three hypotheses about the origin and processes maintaining the meadow: the meadow is (1) of recent human origin; (2) of ancient human origin, maintained by aboriginal burning; and (3) of ancient non-human origin, not maintained by aboriginal burning. Our data supported the idea that the meadow had ancient non-human origins and its recent history and current status have resulted from complex interactions among landform, climate, and fire. Soil properties (both horizonation and charcoal content) indicate that the meadow is of ancient, non-human origin. Tree ages in the meadow and surrounding forest indicate that encroachment is recent, not related to a variety of recent human activities, and is probably a result of increasing spring temperature and decreasing spring snow depth. Although ethnographic surveys and historical documents revealed indigenous use of the general area over millennia, including the use of fire as a management tool, we found little direct evidence of indigenous use of the meadow. However, there was no proxy record of fire frequency in the meadow that we could have used to determine the role of fire in maintaining the meadow in the past, or the role of humans in igniting those fires. Thus, the historical role of humans in the maintenance of the meadow by prescribed fire remains indeterminate. Based on these conclusions, we combined hypotheses (2) and (3) into an a posteriori hypothesis that reflects changing interactions among people, fire, and climate over time. Without management intervention, we expect that tree encroachment will continue. Several general lessons emerge from our study of Chittenden Meadow. A single modern ecosystem condition may result from diverse antecedents, but ecosystems may not carry a memory of all the processes driving their historical dynamics. The historical role of indigenous reource management activities may be one such process: despite millennia of human occupation and resource use in the region, local First Nations left only a light footprint on Chittenden Meadow. Finally, there is value and challenge in integrating data and perspectives from different disciplines.