Emily Schmidt

Evidence on Key Policies for African Agricultural Growth

It is widely agreed that reducing poverty in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) depends largely on stimulating growth in agriculture. To this end, heads of state in Africa rallied to form the pan-African Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) with the goal of raising investments and improving strategy implementation. However, while implementing an agricultural agenda under the CAADP framework, more and more countries have realized that increasing public investment in agriculture alone is not enough. Policy can play an important role not only to make public investment more efficient, but also is crucial for incentivizing private sector and farmer investment in agriculture. Against this backdrop this paper takes stock of current agricultural policies in SSA with a view to identifying policies that are working as well as areas for improvement. The paper examines policies to encourage the adoption of agricultural inputs, initiate greater private-sector investment in agriculture and agro-industries, and manage price volatility while encouraging openness. The paper further reviews successful land tenure policies and property rights systems, reviews the evidence on the synergies between agriculture and nutrition, and examines how CAADP is laying the institutional architecture for improved policy formulation in Africa. In general, the paper finds that although substantial progress has been made, there is considerable scope for improvement. This is not surprising given the relatively primitive and deeply rooted nature of smallholder farming in Africa. Evidence synthesized in the paper supports the view that most policies cannot be implemented in isolation. Rather, policies tend to be most effective when implemented along with complementary policies and public investments.

The effect of land inheritance on youth employment and migration decisions: Evidence from rural Ethiopia

&NA; How does the amount of land that youth expect to inherit affect their migration and employment decisions? We explore this question in the context of rural Ethiopia using a 2014 cross‐sectional dataset indicating whether or not youth household members from a previous 2010 survey had migrated by 2014, and in which sector they worked in 2014. We estimate a household fixed effects model and exploit exogenous variation in the timing of land redistributions to overcome endogenous household decisions about how much land to bequeath to descendants. We find that larger expected land inheritances significantly lower the likelihood of long‐distance permanent migration and of permanent migration to urban areas. Inheriting more land also leads to a significantly higher likelihood of employment in agriculture and a lower likelihood of employment in the non‐agricultural sector. Conversely, the decision to attend school is unaffected. These results appear to be most heavily‐driven by males and by the older half of our youth sample. We also find suggestive evidence that several mediating factors matter. Land inheritance is a much stronger predictor of rural‐to‐urban permanent migration and non‐agricultural‐sector employment in areas with less vibrant land markets, in relatively remote areas (those far from major urban centers), and in areas with lower soil quality. Overall, these results affirm the importance of push factors in dictating occupation and migration decisions in Ethiopia.

Sustainable agriculture in the Blue Nile Basin: land and watershed management practices in Ethiopia

The trade-off between short-term welfare and long-term agricultural development in the highlands of Ethiopia represents a challenge to successful economic development in a predominantly agriculture-based economy. We employ nearest neighbor and kernel-based matching techniques to measure the impact of sustainable land and watershed management (SLWM) on the value of production at the plot level. Analysis suggests that plots that received SLWM investments (terraces, bunds, check dams) within the first study period (1992–2002) had a 24 per cent higher value of production in 2010. In addition, continuous treatment effects analysis provides a robustness check and suggests that plots with existing SLWM infrastructure have a positive and increasing value of production seven years after construction. Although value of production increases over time, net benefits may not outweigh costs, and mechanisms to incentivize maintenance may be needed.

Implications of Migration on Employment and Occupational Transitions in Tanzania

The overarching message from the growth literature is that a transition from the low-productivity agricultural sector to the high-productivity manufacturing sector is necessary for structural change. Although sub-Saharan Africa has experienced substantial economic growth rates, rural–urban migration contributed very little to this progress. Migration to peri-urban areas may offer prospects for diversification out of agriculture with lower moving costs and job-search frictions than urban centers. We document migration patterns and worker selection into peri-urban and urban areas in Tanzania. Standard spatial classifications mask the prominent phenomenon of peri-urban (rather than rural) to urban migration. Lacking job experience and social networks, many youth moving to urban destinations are more likely to be unemployed. However, conditional on being employed over the two-year period of the study, migration to peri-urban as well as urban areas allows workers to transition from low- to high-valued occupations.