Emma Watson

Tree‐ring data document 16th century megadrought over North America

The two most severe, sustained droughts in the continental United States during the 20th century occurred in the 1930s and 1950s. The 1950s drought was most extreme over the southwest and southern Great Plains, where ecological consequences are still evident on the landscape [Swetnam and Betancourt], 1998].The Dust Bowl,vividly recounted in John Steinbecks The Grapes of Wrath, was the nations most severe, sustained,and widespread drought of the past 300 years, according to tree-ring reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) across the continental United States [Cook et al., 1999] (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pdsiyear.html. Droughts during the 1750s, 1820s, and 1850s–1860s estimated from tree rings were similar to the 1950s drought in terms of magnitude, persistence, and spatial coverage, but these earlier episodes do not appear to have surpassed the severity or extent of the Dust Bowl drought. However, longer tree-ring reconstructions of PDSI for the United States and precipitation for northwestern Mexico and western Canada indicate that the “megadrought” of the 16th century far exceeded any drought of the 20th century (Figure 1) [also see Wood-house and Overpeck, 1998], and is considered to be the most severe prolonged drought over much of North America for at least the last 500 years [Meko et al., 1995].

The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American cordillera.

The snowpack covering the mountains of western North America has decreased dramatically during the past 50 years. In western North America, snowpack has declined in recent decades, and further losses are projected through the 21st century. Here, we evaluate the uniqueness of recent declines using snowpack reconstructions from 66 tree-ring chronologies in key runoff-generating areas of the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri River drainages. Over the past millennium, late 20th century snowpack reductions are almost unprecedented in magnitude across the northern Rocky Mountains and in their north-south synchrony across the cordillera. Both the snowpack declines and their synchrony result from unparalleled springtime warming that is due to positive reinforcement of the anthropogenic warming by decadal variability. The increasing role of warming on large-scale snowpack variability and trends foreshadows fundamental impacts on streamflow and water supplies across the western United States.

Dendroclimatic reconstruction of precipitation for sites in the southern Canadian Rockies

Seven Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree-ring chronologies were developed from sites in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Alberta, and near Cranbrook, British Columbia. The chronologies ranged in length from 191 to 691 years and display a strong precipitation signal. Multiple regression models were developed that calibrate .50% of the variance in the instrumental records and were used to reconstruct annual (pAugust– July or pJuly–June) precipitation for Banff, Jasper and Cranbrook. Comparison of these reconstructions with records from adjacent areas indicates that periods of reduced precipitation occurred over this region in c. ad 1760–1775, the 1790s, the 1840s–1870s, the 1890s and c. 1920–1945. Periods of significantly greater precipi-tation occurred during the 1880s–1920s and in the latter half of the twentieth century. The Banff reconstruction extends back to ad 1430 and also shows major drier intervals c. 1470–1510, the 1570s and 1615–1660. These reconstructions indicate regionally coherent precipitation patterns that fluctuate on decadal timescales and may be linked to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.

Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Precipitation for the Southern Canadian Cordillera

This paper reconstructs precipitation variability in the southern Canadian Cordillera over the past 3–400 years using dendroclimatologicaltechniques. Fifty-three total ring-width (RW) chronologies, 28 earlywood (EW) and 28 latewood (LW) chronologies were developed from open-grown, low-elevation stands of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) and Pinusponderosa (ponderosa pine) across the southern Canadian Cordillera. RW, EW and LW chronologies from both species were used to develop 13 annual (prior July to current June) precipitation reconstructions across the region. The reconstructions range in length from 165 to 688 years, pass verification tests and capture 39–64% of the variancein the instrumental record. Coincident, prolonged intervals of dry conditions are estimated for the years: 1717–1732, 1839–1859, 1917–1941 and1968–1979. Shorter dry intervals are identified between 1581–1586, 1626–1630,1641–1653 1701–1708, 1756–1761, 1768–1772, 1793–1800,1868–1875, 1889–1897 and 1985–1989. The historic drought of the 1920–1930s was the longest but not the most intense across this area in the last 300 years. Wet conditions occur in the majority of reconstructions for the years: 1689–1700, 1750–55,1778–1789, 1800–1830, 1880–1890, 1898–1916 and 1942–1960. Thesedata, in conjunction with data from adjacent areas, are used to provide the first maps of decadal precipitation anomalies for the region between 1700 and 1990.

The tree-ring record of drought on the Canadian Prairies

Ring-width data from 138 sites in the Canadian Prairie Provinces and adjacent regions are used to estimate summer drought severity during the past several hundred years. The network was divided into five regional groups based on geography, tree species, and length of record: the eastern Rockies, northern Saskatchewan, central Manitoba, southern Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario. Regional tree-ring records are primarily related to summer moisture and drought conditions, and are less responsive to droughts caused by deficits in winter precipitation. These summer-sensitive data are not linearly related to major modes of climate variability, including ENSO and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which primarily affect the climate of western Canada during winter. Extended drought records inferred from tree rings indicate that drought on the Canadian Prairies has exhibited considerable spatial heterogeneity over the last several centuries. For northern Saskatchewan and northwestern Ontario, intervals of persistently low tree growth during the twentieth century were just as long as or longer than low-growth intervals in the eighteenth or nineteenth centuries. Longer records from southern Alberta suggest that the most intense dry spell in that area during the last 500 yr occurred during the 1720s. At the eastern side of the prairies, the longest dry event is centered around 1700 and may coincide with low lake stands in Manitoba, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Although the Canadian Prairies were dry at times during the 1500s, there is no regional analog to the sixteenth-century ‘‘megadroughts’’ that affected much of the western United States and northern Mexico.

Climate Warming and 21st‐Century Drought in Southwestern North America

Since 2000, southwestern North America has experienced widespread drought. Lakes Powell and Mead are now at less than 50% of their reservoir capacity, and drought or fire-related states of emergency were declared this past summer by governors in six western states. As with other prolonged droughts, such as the Dust Bowl during the 1930s, aridity has at times extended from northern Mexico to the southern Canadian prairies. A synthesis of climatological and paleoclimatological studies suggests that a transition to a more arid climate may be occurring due to global warming, with the prospect of sustained droughts being exacerbated by the potential reaction of the Pacific Ocean to warming.

Spatial Patterns of Preinstrumental Moisture Variability in the Southern Canadian Cordillera

Abstract Extreme wet and dry intervals of the last 350 yr in the Canadian Cordillera and adjacent United States are examined using a network of 25 tree-ring-based precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Reconstructed twentieth-century-mapped patterns compare well with patterns based on the instrumental records at both annual and decadal scales. During the most extreme events, dry conditions occurred over the entire area. The longest widespread drought in the last 350 yr occurred from 1917 to 1941. Shorter intervals of more severely dry conditions occurred in the early 1720s, 1750s, 1790s, 1860s–70s, and the 1890s. Many of the driest individual years and most extreme dry periods of <7 yr are reconstructed for the eighteenth century. The longest, wettest periods identified by these reconstructions occurred in the early twentieth century. In agreement with published studies that explore links between instrumental precipitation records from the region and conditions in the Paci...

Dendroclimatology from Regional to Continental Scales: Understanding Regional Processes to Reconstruct Large-Scale Climatic Variations Across the Western Americas

Common patterns of climatic variability across the Western Americas are modulated by tropical and extra-tropical oscillatory modes operating at different temporal scales. Interannual climatic variations in the tropics and subtropics of the Western Americas are largely regulated by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whereas decadal-scale variations are induced by long-term Pacific modes of climate variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). At higher latitudes, climate variations are dominated by oscillations in the Annular Modes (the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations) which show both interannual and longer-scale temporal oscillations. Here we use a recently-developed network of tree-ring chronologies to document past climatic variations along the length of the Western Cordilleras. The local and regional characterization of the relationships between climate and tree-growth provide the basis to compare climatic variations in temperature- and precipitation-sensitive records in the Western Americas over the past 3–4 centuries. Upper-elevation records from tree-ring sites in the Gulf of Alaska and Patagonia reveal the occurrence of concurrent decade-scale oscillations in temperature during the last 400 years modulated by PDO. The most recent fluctuation from the cold- to the warm-phase of the PDO in the mid 1970s induced marked changes in tree growth in most extratropical temperature-sensitive chronologies in the Western Cordilleras of both Hemispheres. Common patterns of interannual variations in tree-ring chronologies from the relatively-dry subtropics in western North and South America are largely modulated by ENSO. We used an independent reconstruction of Nino-3 sea surface temperature (SST) to document relationships to tree growth in the southwestern US, the Bolivian Altiplano and Central Chile and also to show strong correlations between these regions. These results further document the strong influence of SSTs in the tropical Pacific as a common forcing of precipitation variations in the subtropical Western America during the past 3–4 centuries. Common patterns of interdecadal or longer-scale variability in tree-ring chronologies from the subarctic and subantarctic regions also suggest common forcings for the annular modes of high-latitude climate variability. A clear separation of the relative influence of tropical versus high-latitude modes of variability is currently difficult to establish: discriminating between tropical and extra-tropical influences on tree growth still remains elusive, particularly in subtropical and temperate regions along our transect. We still need independent reconstructions of tropical and polar modes of climate variability to gain insight into past forcing interactions and the combined effect on climates of the Western Americas. Finally, we also include a series of brief examples (as ‘boxes’) illustrating some of the major regional developments in dendrochronology over this global transect in the last 10 years.

Long Hydroclimate Records from Tree-Rings in Western Canada: Potential, Problems and Prospects

Tree-ring chronologies from moisture-sensitive sites can provide annually resolved proxy records for precipitation, streamflow and other hydrological variables for periods several hundred years longer than available instrumental records. This paper reviews some previous North American work in this field (concentrating on western Canada), examining the limitations and potential of these studies with specific examples from ongoing research in the Canadian Cordillera. Although they cannot be used to predict future flows or precipitation, proxy data can document the long-term natural variability and periodicities of these phenomena—information vital for better approximations of future probabilities. In addition, by establishing relationships between hydrometeorological variables and persistent modes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, such research may provide some predictive skill in short-term forecasting.