Emmanuel Fragnière

The travel agent : delivering more value by becoming an operational risk manager

Travelers have to handle with various risks and uncertainties by themselves or they can ask a travel agent to act on their behalf in order to minimize and/or to solve them. We believe that the new nature of the activities that could be offered by the travel agencies would rather be a risk management service than just the retailing of prepackaged services. To address this problem of service design, we have conceived a risk management service offer grounded on multidisciplinary approaches. The main idea is to apply cost-based valuation methods to manage the risks arising along the travel chain.

Swiss energy taxation options to curb CO2 emissions

This study offers insights into the design of economically efficient policies to curb carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Switzerland and in other European countries. The method uses a model of the energy system to investigate various options for taxation to reduce CO2emissions. This study proposes as a first option the introduction of a ‘hedging tax’, that balances the risks of delaying measures to reduce CO2 emissions against those of premature reduction measures. It then assesses multinational policy options and considers as a second alternative international co-operation to curb joint CO2 emissions by means of a uniform tax applied in different countries. The simulation of such a strategy among three European countries (Switzerland, the Netherlands and Belgium) suggests that there may be significant benefits to be gained when CO2 reduction takes place in the countries where it is relatively cheap to do so.

Influences of Public Ecological Awareness and Price on Potable Water Consumption in Geneva

The specific attitudes and behaviour of individuals in a given society must be properly understood in order to develop adequate and relevant public policies regarding water consumption. For this reason, we conducted a survey to measure the perception of the Geneva population regarding the main social aspects of water consumption. Our sample, collected between November 2006 and February 2007, numbers 907 valid questionnaires. We observed that most respondents indicate that they have an ecological awareness regarding their daily consumption of freshwater. However, we also discovered a lack of information, e.g. people are neither able to quantify water price, nor their individual consumption (for drinking, cleaning, washing, etc.). Non-parametrical statistical tests have highlighted a weak correlation between water price increase and consumption. Also, people who directly pay their water bills seem to be more concerned by water consumption than others. This and other elements of perception regarding public water consumption have been analysed with the aim to provide recommendations for better demand management policies.

Consumers' Choices Among Alternative Electricity Programs in Geneva - An Empirical Analysis

Services industriels de Geneve (SIG) is the monopoly which delivers natural gas, water and electricity in the Geneva Canton. A few years ago, SIG offered to Geneva households 6 different types of electricity products from which households can choose. Those new electricity products differ in particular because of the origin of their production (natural gas, hydraulic, solar, asf) and of their price. Through a survey research, we investigate what are the main factors which explain household choices among the different products. By using a series of logistic regressions, we assess what determines households knowledge of the different electricity products which are offered by SIG and the factors explaining their choices among them.

Optimizing the Marriage Market Through the Reallocation of Partners: An Application of the Linear Assignment Model

Research shows that success of marriages and other intimate partnerships depend on objective attributes such as differences of age, cultural background or educational levels between partners. This article proposes a mathematical approach of marriage which intends to optimally allocate spouses in order to reduce the likelihood of divorce within the set of structural constraints defining a marriage market. Based on a representative and longitudinal sample of 1074 cohabitating and married couples living in Switzerland, we estimate various objective functions corresponding to age, education, ethnicity and previous divorce experience concerning every possible combination of men and women. Our results show that the current state of marriages or partnerships is well below the social optimum. About 7 individuals over 10 (68%) are reallocated to a couple with a higher chance of survival than the actual couple that they belong to. This reallocation leads the initial non optimal situations to the final optimal situations with a reduction of the objective function by 21% of its initial value.

An approach to deal with uncertainty in energy and environmental planning: the MARKAL case

This paper presents a new concept to include uncertainty management in energy and environmental planning models developed in algebraic modeling languages. SETSTOCH is a tool for linking algebraic modeling languages with specialized stochastic programming solvers. Its main role is to retrieve from the modeling language a dynamically ordered core model (baseline scenario) that is sent automatically to the stochastic solver. The case presented herein concerns such a study realized with the IEA‐MARKAL model used by many research teams around the world.

Socio-Markal (Somarkal): First Modeling Attempts in the Nyon Residential and Commercial Sectors Taking into Account Behavioural Uncertainties

There is no doubt that the current century is an era of environmental awareness which will require meeting the growing demands by means of a set of generating technologies, while minimising Greenhouse Gas emissions. Provided that technologies alone could not solve the problem, we have integrated the sociological dimension, represented by the potentially powerful resource for energy conservation that exists in the ability of consumers to change their behaviour. This study aims at proposing a new MARKAL framework that would take into account consumers’ technological improvements and behavioural changes minimizing carbon dioxide emissions and encouraging rational use of energy. As opposed to the traditional MARKAL framework based on technical and economic considerations, the SOMARKAL model integrates technological, economic and behavioural contributions to the environment. Essentially, the conceptual aspects of the SOMARKAL will be presented. Based on this new MARKAL formulation, we will simulate the possible contribution of awareness campaigns in triggering energy consumption behavioural changes and possibilities of technology switch, in the residential area of the city of Nyon (Switzerland), for the period 2005-2025, using ANSWER, the IEA’s platform. The main focus is on lighting technologies. Three fictitious scenarios were produced, referring to three possible penetration rates of low consumption lighting technologies.

A GIS-based regional energy-environment policy model

This paper describes a regional energy-environment modelling approach that explicitly takes into account the spatial distribution of production and demand activities, with their associated emissions. Indeed, some of the information used at a regional level has a spatial representation (e.g. district heating, electricity grid, natural gas network, traffic, public transport, etc.). We have defined a model structure that allows spatial modelling through the use of integer programming techniques in association with a linkage to a geographical information system. The energy model then becomes a part of an integrated interactive Decision Support System, allowing the decision maker to assess the consequences of the energy policy choices on air pollution and on population exposure to health risk factors. The model is currently in its implementation phase for the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland.

The concept of shadow price to monetarize the intangible value of expertise

The pricing of knowledge based services should be based on the three following components: the cost structure, the competition and the perceived value by the client. Practically, it is mainly based on the cost structure which does not account for the real value provided to the client. Based on an integrated optimization model combining an aggregate planning model with a share of choice model, we produce implicit values of expertise. Preliminary results will be presented about a travel agency.

Nestlé Improves Its Financial Reporting with Management Science

Nestles executive information system (EIS) department gathers data from the firms subsidiaries (reporting units) to provide top management with operational, financial, and strategic information. In 1996, the EIS department decided to improve its service by using business analytics tools based on management science (MS) techniques. It wanted to encourage analysts and controllers to make better use of the information supplied. We developed four OR modules: sensitivity analysis, forecasting, simulation, and optimization, and integrated them into a more global modeling scheme for evaluating the economic profitability of Nestles projects and more generally evaluating the value of the Nestle group and its multifocal businesses. Disseminating this approach within the Nestle group through training and internal consulting has been a long and important process that has increased the number of managers accustomed to quantitative decision making and established new reporting protocols imposing the use of MS models.