Emmanuel Musa

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: transmission dynamics and rapid control

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

Public Knowledge, Perception and Source of Information on Ebola Virus Disease – Lagos, Nigeria; September, 2014

Background: The first ever outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Nigeria was declared in July, 2014. Level of public knowledge, perception and adequacy of information on EVD were unknown. We assessed the public preparedness level to adopt disease preventive behavior which is premised on appropriate knowledge, perception and adequate information. Methods: We enrolled 5,322 respondents in a community-based cross-sectional study. We used interviewer-administered questionnaire to collect data on socio-demographic characteristics, EVD–related knowledge, perception and source of information. We performed univariate and bivariate data analysis using Epi-Info software setting p-value of 0.05 as cut-off for statistical significance. Results: Mean age of respondents was 34 years (± 11.4 years), 52.3% were males. Forty one percent possessed satisfactory general knowledge; 44% and 43.1% possessed satisfactory knowledge on mode of spread and preventive measures, respectively. Residing in EVD cases districts, male respondents and possessing at least secondary education were positively associated with satisfactory general knowledge (p-value: 0.01, 0.001 and 0.000004, respectively). Seventy one percent perceived EVD as a public health problem while 61% believed they cannot contract the disease. Sixty two percent and 64% of respondents will not shake hands and hug a successfully treated EVD patient respectively. Only 2.2% of respondents practice good hand-washing practice. Television (68.8%) and radio (55.0%) are the most common sources of information on EVD. Conclusions: Gaps in EVD-related knowledge and perception exist. Targeted public health messages to raise knowledge level, correct misconception and discourage stigmatization should be widely disseminated, with television and radio as media of choice.

Clinical profile and containment of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in two large West African cities, Nigeria, July-September 2014.

INTRODUCTION The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in Nigeria began when an infected diplomat from Liberia arrived in Lagos, the most populous city in Africa, with subsequent transmission to another large city. METHODS First-, second-, and third-generation contacts were traced, monitored, and classified. Symptomatic contacts were managed at Ebola treatment centers as suspected, probable, and confirmed EVD cases using standard operating procedures adapted from the World Health Organization EVD guidelines. Reverse transcription PCR tests confirmed EVD. Socio-demographic, clinical, hospitalization, and outcome data of the July-September 2014 Nigeria EVD cohort were analyzed. RESULTS The median age of the 20 EVD cases was 33 years (interquartile range 26-62 years). More females (55%), health workers (65%), and persons <40 years old (60%) were infected than males, non-health workers, and persons aged ≥40 years. No EVD case management worker contracted the disease. Presenting symptoms were fever (85%), fatigue (70%), and diarrhea (65%). Clinical syndromes were gastroenteritis (45%), hemorrhage (30%), and encephalopathy (15%). The case-fatality rate was 40% and there was one mental health complication. The average duration from symptom onset to presentation was 3±2 days among survivors and 5±2 days for non-survivors. The mean duration from symptom onset to discharge was 15±5 days for survivors and 11±2 days for non-survivors. Mortality was higher in the older age group, males, and those presenting late. CONCLUSION The EVD outbreak in Nigeria was characterized by the severe febrile gastroenteritis syndrome typical of the West African outbreak, better outcomes, rapid containment, and no infection among EVD care-providers. Early case detection, an effective incident management system, and prompt case management with on-site mobilization and training of local professionals were key to the outcome.

Containment of Ebola and Polio in Low-resource Settings Using Principles and Practices of Emergency Operations Centers in Public Health

Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) have been credited with driving the recent successes achieved in the Nigeria polio eradication program. EOC concept was also applied to the Ebola virus disease outbreak and is applicable to a range of other public health emergencies. This article outlines the structure and functionality of a typical EOC in addressing public health emergencies in low-resource settings. It ascribes the successful polio and Ebola responses in Nigeria to several factors including political commitment, population willingness to engage, accountability, and operational and strategic changes made by the effective use of an EOC and Incident Management System. In countries such as Nigeria where the central or federal government does not directly hold states accountable, the EOC provides a means to improve performance and use data to hold health workers accountable by using innovative technologies such as geographic position systems, dashboards, and scorecards.

Epidemiological profile of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July-September 2014

Introduction In July 2014, Nigeria experienced an outbreak of Ebola virus disease following the introduction of the disease by an ill Liberian Traveler. The Government of Nigeria with the support of Technical and Development Partners responded quickly and effectively to contain the outbreak. The epidemiological profile of the outbreak that majorly affected two States in the country in terms of person, place and time characteristics of the cases identified is hereby described. Methods Using field investigation technique, all confirmed and probable cases were identified, line-listed and analysed using Microsoft Excel 2007 by persons, time and place. Results A total of 20 confirmed and probable cases; 16 in Lagos (including the index case from Liberia) and 4 in Port Harcourt were identified. The mean age was 39.5 ± 12.4 years with over 40% within the age group 30-39 years. The most frequent exposure type was direct physical contact in 70% of all cases and 73% among health care workers. The total case-fatality was 40%; higher among healthcare workers (46%) compared with non-healthcare workers (22%). The epidemic curve initially shows a typical common source outbreak, followed by a propagated pattern. Conclusion Investigation revealed the size and spread of the outbreak and provided information on the characteristics of persons, time and place. Enhanced surveillance measures, including contact tracing and follow- up proved very useful in early case detection and containment of the outbreak.

Preventing tobacco epidemic in LMICs with low tobacco use — Using Nigeria GATS to review WHO MPOWER tobacco indicators and prevention strategies

INTRODUCTION Tobacco is a major preventable cause of disease and death globally and increasingly shifting its burden to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) including African countries. We use Nigeria Global Adult Tobacco Survey data to examine indications of a potential tobacco epidemic in a LMIC setting and provide potential interventions to prevent the epidemic. METHODOLOGY Global Adult Tobacco Survey data from Nigeria (2012; sample=9765) were analyzed to examine key tobacco indicators. Estimates and confidence intervals for each indicator were computed using SPSS software version 21 for complex samples. RESULTS 5.5% of adult Nigerians use any tobacco and exposure to secondhand smoke was mainly high in bars (80.0%) and restaurants (29.3%). Two-thirds of smokers (66.3%) are interested in quitting. Among those who attempted to quit, 15.0% used counseling/advice and 5.2% pharmacotherapy. Awareness was high that tobacco use causes serious illnesses (82.4%), heart attack (76.8%) and lung cancer (73.0%) but only 51.4% for stroke. Awareness that secondhand smoke can cause serious illness was also high (74.5%). Overall 88.5% support tobacco products tax increase. CONCLUSION Although tobacco use is relatively low in Nigeria as in other African countries, high smoking rate among men compared to women might indicate potential increase in prevalence. Challenges to preventing increasing smoking rate include limited use of evidence-based cessation methods among quit attempters, social acceptability of smoking particularly in bars and restaurants, and gap in knowledge on tobacco-related diseases. However, ratification of WHO FCTC and signing into law of the Tobacco Control law provide the impetus to implement evidence-based interventions.

Ebola Virus Transmission Caused by Persistently Infected Survivors of the 2014–2016 Outbreak in West Africa

Abstract The 2014–2016 Ebola virus (EBOV) disease outbreak affected over 29000 people and left behind the biggest cohort (over 17000 individuals) of Ebola survivors in history. Although the persistence of EBOV in body fluids of survivors was reported before the recent outbreak, new evidence revealed that the virus can be detected up to 18 months in the semen, which represents the biggest risk of Ebola resurgence in affected communities. In this study, we review the knowledge on the Ebola flare-ups that occurred after the peak of the 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

Analysis of patient data from laboratories during the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Liberia, April 2014 to March 2015

An outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia began in March 2014 and ended in January 2016. Epidemiological information on the EVD cases was collected and managed nationally; however, collection and management of the data were challenging at the time because surveillance and reporting systems malfunctioned during the outbreak. EVD diagnostic laboratories, however, were able to register basic demographic and clinical information of patients more systematically. Here we present data on 16,370 laboratory samples that were tested between April 4, 2014 and March 29, 2015. A total of 10,536 traceable individuals were identified, of whom 3,897 were confirmed cases (positive for Ebola virus RNA). There were significant differences in sex, age, and place of residence between confirmed and suspected cases that tested negative for Ebola virus RNA. Age (young children and the elderly) and place of residence (rural areas) were the risk factors for death due to the disease. The case fatality rate of confirmed cases decreased from 80% to 63% during the study period. These findings may help support future investigations and lead to a fuller understanding of the outbreak in Liberia.

Setting the Scene for Post-Ebola Health System Recovery and Resilience in Liberia: Lessons Learned and the Way Forward

Following the devastation caused by the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia there remains much to be done for the health system to fully recover and become resilient against any future public health threat. Liberia is a post-conflict setting having experienced prolonged years of civil conflict that weakened the health system. With the decline in the incidence of new Ebola cases in late 2014 and the progressive draw down of the emergency and humanitarian response resources from early 2015, the government of Liberia moved to set the scene for the health system’s recovery and resilience through the development of a comprehensive seven-year Investment Plan for building a resilient health system (2015-2021). The Plan aims to ensure universal health coverage, guarantee health security and improve health outcomes for the population of Liberia, while complementing the National Health Policy and Plan (2011-2021). The plan requires the investment of 1.7 billion US dollars over a period of seven years and realignments that the Government of Liberia alone does not currently have the capacity to undertake without long term external support. This paper describes the experience of Liberia in the development of the Investment Plan for building a resilient health system following the 2014-15 Ebola crisis, the approaches, process and realignments that were undertaken, lessons learned, and the way forward. It aims to provide lessons for countries recovering from crises, on how to manage their system recovery efforts.

The challenges of detecting and responding to a Lassa fever outbreak in an Ebola-affected setting

OBJECTIVES Lassa fever (LF), a priority emerging pathogen likely to cause major epidemics, is endemic in much of West Africa and is difficult to distinguish from other viral hemorrhagic fevers, including Ebola virus disease (EVD). Definitive diagnosis requires laboratory confirmation, which is not widely available in affected settings. The public health action to contain a LF outbreak and the challenges encountered in an EVD-affected setting are reported herein. METHODS In February 2016, a rapid response team was deployed in Liberia in response to a cluster of LF cases. Active case finding, case investigation, contact tracing, laboratory testing, environmental investigation, risk communication, and community awareness raising were undertaken. RESULTS From January to June 2016, 53 suspected LF cases were reported through the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response system (IDSR). Fourteen cases (26%) were confirmed for LF, 14 (26%) did not have a sample tested, and 25 (47%) were classified as not a case following laboratory analysis. The case fatality rate in the confirmed cases was 29%. One case of international exportation was reported from Sweden. Difficulties were identified in timely specimen collection, packaging, and transportation (in confirmed cases, the time from sample collection to sample result ranged from 2 to 64 days) and a lack of response interventions for early cases. CONCLUSIONS The delay in response to this outbreak could have been related to a number of challenges in this EVD-affected setting: a need to strengthen the IDSR system, develop preparedness plans, train rapid response teams, and build laboratory capacity. Prioritizing these actions will aid in the timely response to future outbreaks.