Emre Özkan

Marginalized adaptive particle filtering for nonlinear models with unknown time-varying noise parameters

Knowledge of the noise distribution is typically crucial for the state estimation of general state-space models. However, properties of the noise process are often unknown in the majority of practical applications. The distribution of the noise may also be non-stationary or state dependent and that prevents the use of off-line tuning methods. For linear Gaussian models, Adaptive Kalman filters (AKF) estimate unknown parameters in the noise distributions jointly with the state. For nonlinear models, we provide a Bayesian solution for the estimation of the noise distributions in the exponential family, leading to a marginalized adaptive particle filter (MAPF) where the noise parameters are updated using finite dimensional sufficient statistics for each particle. The time evolution model for the noise parameters is defined implicitly as a Kullback-Leibler norm constraint on the time variability, leading to an exponential forgetting mechanism operating on the sufficient statistics. Many existing methods are based on the standard approach of augmenting the state with the unknown variables and attempting to solve the resulting filtering problem. The MAPF is significantly more computationally efficient than a comparable particle filter that runs on the full augmented state. Further, the MAPF can handle sensor and actuator offsets as unknown means in the noise distributions, avoiding the standard approach of augmenting the state with such offsets. We illustrate the MAPF on first a standard example, and then on a tire radius estimation problem on real data.

Recursive Maximum Likelihood Identification of Jump Markov Nonlinear Systems

We present an online method for joint state and parameter estimation in jump Markov non-linear systems (JMNLS). State inference is enabled via the use of particle filters which makes the method applicable to a wide range of non-linear models. To exploit the inherent structure of JMNLS, we design a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter (RBPF) where the discrete mode is marginalized out analytically. This results in an efficient implementation of the algorithm and reduces the estimation error variance. The proposed RBPF is then used to compute, recursively in time, smoothed estimates of complete data sufficient statistics. Together with the online expectation maximization algorithm, this enables recursive identification of unknown model parameters including the transition probability matrix. The method is also applicable to online identification of jump Markov linear systems(JMLS). The performance of the method is illustrated in simulations and on a localization problem in wireless networks using real data.

A Student's t filter for heavy tailed process and measurement noise

We consider the filtering problem in linear state space models with heavy tailed process and measurement noise. Our work is based on Students t distribution, for which we give a number of useful results. The derived filtering algorithm is a generalization of the ubiquitous Kalman filter, and reduces to it as special case. Both Kalman filter and the new algorithm are compared on a challenging tracking example where a maneuvering target is observed in clutter.

Marginalized particle filters for Bayesian estimation of Gaussian noise parameters

The particle filter provides a general solution to the nonlinear filtering problem with arbitrarily accuracy. However, the curse of dimensionality prevents its application in cases where the state dimensionality is high. Further, estimation of stationary parameters is a known challenge in a particle filter framework. We suggest a marginalization approach for the case of unknown noise distribution parameters that avoid both aforementioned problem. First, the standard approach of augmenting the state vector with sensor offsets and scale factors is avoided, so the state dimension is not increased. Second, the mean and covariance of both process and measurement noises are represented with parametric distributions, whose statistics are updated adaptively and analytically using the concept of conjugate prior distributions. The resulting marginalized particle filter is applied to and illustrated with a standard example from literature.

Extended Target Tracking Using Gaussian Processes

In this paper, we propose using Gaussian processes to track an extended object or group of objects, that generates multiple measurements at each scan. The shape and the kinematics of the object are ...

Approximate Bayesian Smoothing with Unknown Process and Measurement Noise Covariances

We present an adaptive smoother for linear state-space models with unknown process and measurement noise covariances. The proposed method utilizes the variational Bayes technique to perform approximate inference. The resulting smoother is computationally efficient, easy to implement, and can be applied to high dimensional linear systems. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated on a target tracking example.

Greedy Reduction Algorithms for Mixtures of Exponential Family

In this letter, we propose a general framework for greedy reduction of mixture densities of exponential family. The performances of the generalized algorithms are illustrated both on an artificial example where randomly generated mixture densities are reduced and on a target tracking scenario where the reduction is carried out in the recursion of a Gaussian inverse Wishart probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter.

On the Cramér-Rao lower bound under model mismatch

Cramér-Rao lower bounds (CRLBs) are proposed for deterministic parameter estimation under model mismatch conditions where the assumed data model used in the design of the estimators differs from the true data model. The proposed CRLBs are defined for the family of estimators that may have a specified bias (gradient) with respect to the assumed model. The resulting CRLBs are calculated for a linear Gaussian measurement model and compared to the performance of the maximum likelihood estimator for the corresponding estimation problem.

Tire Radii Estimation Using a Marginalized Particle Filter

In this paper, the measurements of individual wheel speeds and the absolute position from a global positioning system are used for high-precision estimation of vehicle tire radii. The radii deviation from its nominal value is modeled as a Gaussian random variable and included as noise components in a simple vehicle motion model. The novelty lies in a Bayesian approach to estimate online both the state vector and the parameters representing the process noise statistics using a marginalized particle filter (MPF). Field tests show that the absolute radius can be estimated with submillimeter accuracy. The approach is tested in accordance with regulation 64 of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe on a large data set (22 tests, using two vehicles and 12 different tire sets), where tire deflations are successfully detected, with high robustness, i.e., no false alarms. The proposed MPF approach outperforms common Kalman-filter-based methods used for joint state and parameter estimation when compared with respect to accuracy and robustness.

A Bayesian approach to jointly estimate tire radii and vehicle trajectory

High-precision estimation of vehicle tire radii is considered, based on measurements on individual wheel speeds and absolute position from a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The wheel speed measurements are subject to noise with time-varying covariance that depends mainly on the road surface. The novelty lies in a Bayesian approach to estimate online the time-varying radii and noise parameters using a marginalized particle filter, where no model approximations are needed such as in previously proposed algorithms based on the extended Kalman filter. Field tests show that the absolute radius can be estimated with millimeter accuracy, while the relative wheel radius on one axle is estimated with submillimeter accuracy.