Enlou Zhang

Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state.

There is a recognized need to anticipate tipping points, or critical transitions, in social–ecological systems. Studies of mathematical and experimental systems have shown that systems may ‘wobble’ before a critical transition. Such early warning signals may be due to the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which causes a system to recover slowly from small impacts, or to a flickering phenomenon, which causes a system to switch back and forth between alternative states in response to relatively large impacts. Such signals for transitions in social–ecological systems have rarely been observed, not the least because high-resolution time series are normally required. Here we combine empirical data from a lake-catchment system with a mathematical model and show that flickering can be detected from sparse data. We show how rising variance coupled to decreasing autocorrelation and skewness started 10–30 years before the transition to eutrophic lake conditions in both the empirical records and the model output, a finding that is consistent with flickering rather than critical slowing down. Our results suggest that if environmental regimes are sufficiently affected by large external impacts that flickering is induced, then early warning signals of transitions in modern social–ecological systems may be stronger, and hence easier to identify, than previously thought.

Phylogenetic beta diversity in bacterial assemblages across ecosystems: deterministic versus stochastic processes.

Increasing evidence has emerged for non-random spatial distributions of microbes, but knowledge of the processes that cause variation in microbial assemblage among ecosystems is lacking. For instance, some studies showed that deterministic processes such as habitat specialization are important, while other studies hold that bacterial communities are assembled by stochastic forces. Here we examine the relative influence of deterministic and stochastic processes for bacterial communities from subsurface environments, stream biofilm, lake water, lake sediment and soil using pyrosequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene. We show that there is a general pattern in phylogenetic signal in species ecological niches across recent evolutionary time for all studied habitats, enabling us to infer the influences of community assembly processes from patterns of phylogenetic turnover in community composition. The phylogenetic dissimilarities among-habitat types were significantly higher than within them, and the communities were clustered according to their original habitat types. For communities within-habitat types, the highest phylogenetic turnover rate through space was observed in subsurface environments, followed by stream biofilm on mountainsides, whereas the sediment assemblages across regional scales showed the lowest turnover rate. Quantifying phylogenetic turnover as the deviation from a null expectation suggested that measured environmental variables imposed strong selection on bacterial communities for nearly all sample groups. For three sample groups, spatial distance reflected unmeasured environmental variables that impose selection, as opposed to spatial isolation. Such characterization of spatial and environmental variables proved essential for proper interpretation of partial Mantel results based on observed beta diversity metrics. In summary, our results clearly indicate a dominant role of deterministic processes on bacterial assemblages and highlight that bacteria show strong habitat associations that have likely emerged through evolutionary adaptation.

Extending the timescale and range of ecosystem services through paleoenvironmental analyses, exemplified in the lower Yangtze basin

In China, and elsewhere, long-term economic development and poverty alleviation need to be balanced against the likelihood of ecological failure. Here, we show how paleoenvironmental records can provide important multidecadal perspectives on ecosystem services (ES). More than 50 different paleoenvironmental proxy records can be mapped to a wide range of ES categories and subcategories. Lake sediments are particularly suitable for reconstructing records of regulating services, such as soil stability, sediment regulation, and water purification, which are often less well monitored. We demonstrate the approach using proxy records from two sets of lake sediment sequences in the lower Yangtze basin covering the period 1800–2006, combined with recent socioeconomic and climate records. We aggregate the proxy records into a regional regulating services index to show that rapid economic growth and population increases since the 1950s are strongly coupled to environmental degradation. Agricultural intensification from the 1980s onward has been the main driver for reducing rural poverty but has led to an accelerated loss of regulating services. In the case of water purification, there is strong evidence that a threshold has been transgressed within the last two decades. The current steep trajectory of the regulating services index implies that regional land management practices across a large agricultural tract of eastern China are critically unsustainable.

Quantitative reconstruction of the paleosalinity at Qinghai Lake in the past 900 years

Based on the function relationship between the shell length ofLimnocythere inopinata and the salinity of its living water in Tibetan Plateau lakes, the paleosalinty of Qinghai Lake in the past 900 years was reconstructed through the measurement of the adult body length ofLimnocythere inopinata. Meanwhile, the paleosalinity sequence of Qinghai Lake during the same period was rebuilt by the Sr/Ca ratio of the shell ofEucypris inflata combined with the Sr/Ca ratio of living ostracod valves from the species of genusEucypris inflata and the host water. The paleosalinity results obtained by two different methods were compared and assessed in this paper. To check the result, it was also contrasted with other historical climatic sequences of this area including tree ring and ice core. It was shown that the paleosalinity sequence rebuilt by adult ostracod body length had high reliability, and the paleosalinity reconstruction method by trace elements of ostracod shells was not suitable for Qinghai Lake. From the reconstructed paleosalinty sequence of Qinghai Lake, it can be found that low salinity during 1160–1290 AD showed the humid climate condition on the Mediaeval Warm Period in this area, while the high salinity during 1410–1540 AD, 1610–1670 AD and 1770–1850 AD which was corresponding to the three cold pulses of the Little Ice Age with a dry climate condition. And the high salinity in the latest several decades was consistent with recent warm and dry trends of the climate in this area. The good consistency of the reconstructed palaeosalinity sequence and the precipitation sequence in this area rebuilt by tree ring proves the reconstruction of past lake salinity is reliable.

Assessment of heavy metal contamination in the sediments of Nansihu Lake Catchment, China

At present, anthropogenic contribution of heavy metals far exceeds natural input in some aquatic sediment, but the proportions are difficult to differentiate due to the changes in sediment characters. In this paper, the metal (Al, Fe, K, Mg, Ca, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn) concentrations, grain size, and total organic carbon (TOC) content in the surface and core sediments of Nansihu Lake Catchment (the open lake and six inflow rivers) were determined. The chemical speciations of the metals (Al, Fe, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn) in the surface sediments were also analyzed. Approaches of factor analysis, normalized enrichment factor (EF) and the new non-residual fractions enrichment factor (KNRF) were used to differentiate the sources of the metals in the sediments, from detrital clastic debris or anthropogenic input, and to quantify the anthropogenic contamination. The results indicate that natural processes were more dominant in concentrating the metals in the surface and core sediments of the open lake. High concentration of Ca and deficiency of other metals in the upper layers of the sediment core were attributed to the input of carbonate minerals in the catchment with increasing human activities since 1980s. High TOC content magnified the deficiency of the metals. Nevertheless, the EF and KNRF both reveal moderate to significant anthropogenic contamination of Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn in the surface sediments of Laoyun River and the estuary and Cr in the surface sediments of Baima River. The proportion of non-residual fractions (acid soluble, reducible, and oxidizable fractions) of Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn in the contaminated sediments increased to 37–99% from the background levels less than 30%.

One century sedimentary record of lead and zinc pollution in Yangzong Lake, a highland lake in southwestern China

Reconstruction of trace metal pollution histories and sources may help us to regulate current pollutant discharge. This is especially important for the highland lakes in southwestern China, which are facing trace metals pollution. We present sedimentary records of 11 metals accumulated in Yangzong Lake since the 1870s, a highland lake in southwestern China. Pollution of lead and zinc (Pb and Zn) was differentiated based on principal component analysis, geochemical normalization, and lead isotope ratios. Nearly all the metals as well as grain size composition show generally constant values before the mid-1980s, denoting stable detrital input in the catchment. Fluctuations in the concentrations of the metals as well as grain size composition since the mid-1980s indicate an increase in soil erosion with strengthened human disturbance in the catchment. After geochemical normalization, Pb and Zn showed constant values before 1990 AD and then a gradual increase in parallel with the variations in 208Pb/206Pb and 207Pb/206Pb ratios, indicating that Pb and Zn pollution occurred. Combining the data of 208pb/206Pb and 207Pb/6Pb ratios in the sediments of Yangzong Lake, leaded gasoline, Pb-Zn ore and coal, and consumption or production historical trends, we deduced that the enhanced Pb and Zn pollution in Yangzong Lake is caused primarily by ore mining and refining.

Spatial distribution and human contamination quantification of trace metals and phosphorus in the sediments of Chaohu Lake, a eutrophic shallow lake, China

Distinguishing and quantifying anthropogenic trace metals and phosphorus accumulated in sediment is important for the protection of our aquatic ecosystems. Here, anthropogenic proportion and potential sources of trace metals and phosphorus in surface sediments of Chaohu Lake were evaluated based on the exhaustive geochemical data. The analysis shows that concentrations of major and trace metals, and phosphorus, displayed significant spatial diversity and almost all elements were over the pre-industrial background value, which should be related to the variations of sediment composition partially. Therefore, conservative element normalization was introduced and calculated enrichment factors (EFs) of the elements were referenced highlighting the human contamination. EFs of the major and trace metals, except Zn, Pb, and Cu, were all nearly 1.0, indicating the detrital origin. The EFs of Zn, Pb, Cu and phosphorus were 1.0–10.4, 1.0–3.8, 1.0–4.9, and 1.0–7.6, respectively, showing moderate to significant contamination. Higher EFs of Zn, Pb and Cu occurred in the mouth areas of Nanfei River and Zhegao River, and they decreased to the lake center in the northwest and northeast lake areas, respectively. We deduced that anthropogenic Zn, Pb, and Cu were mainly from urban and industrial point sources and the non-point sources of atmospheric deposition contributed little to their contamination. The EFs of phosphorus showed similar spatial degradation with that of Zn, Pb, and Cu. Moreover, higher EFs (>1) of phosphorus also occurred in other areas adjacent to the river mouths besides Nanfei River and Zhegao River. This indicated that the non-point agricultural source may also be responsible for the contamination of phosphorus in Chaohu Lake in addition to the urban sewage sources. Anthropogenic phosphorus was mainly concentrated in the speciation of NaOH-P, which had higher potential biological effects than the detrital proportion. Concentrations of Zn, Pb and Cu surpassed the threshold effect concentrations (TEC) of consensus-based sediment quality guidelines of freshwater ecosystems, especially in the contaminated northwest area of Chaohu Lake. This highlighted the contributions of anthropogenic contamination to the elevated potential biological effects of trace metals. Though there had been no obvious human contamination of Cr and Ni in Chaohu Lake, concentrations were all over the TECs, which may be due to higher background levels in the parent materials of soils and bedrocks in Chaohu Lake catchment.

Mid- to late-Holocene East Asian summer monsoon variability recorded in lacustrine sediments from Jingpo Lake, Northeastern China

The Northeastern China involves complex interactions between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and the polar climate system, and plays a significant role as the bridge communicating low- and high-latitude climatic processes. High-resolution multi-proxy analysis of a robust accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dated lacustrine sediment core recovered from Jingpo Lake in Northeastern China provides a detailed history of EASM variability and vegetation changes since ~5100 cal. yr BP. The period from ~5100 to 3600 cal. yr BP was characterized by the highest pollen percentages of Quercus, Ulmus, Juglans and Corylopsis; low Md (median grain size diameter); and high δ13Corg values, reflecting a relatively warm and humid period. The period between ~3600 and 2100 cal. yr BP is characterized by high Md and low δ13Corg values, and a rapid increase in pollen percentages of herbs, indicating cool and dry climatic conditions. From ~2100 to 150 cal. yr BP, a gradual increase in δ13Corg values and low Md values, and a rapid increase in Carpinus, Juglans and Corylopsis pollen percentages was observed, indicating climate change towards warmer and wetter conditions. After ~150 cal. yr BP, the highest values of total organic carbon mass accumulation rate (TOC-MAR), total nitrogen mass accumulation rate (TN-MAR) and magnetic susceptibility suggesting that the Jingpo Lake region has been severely affected by human activities. The EASM variability in Northeastern China during the mid- to late Holocene shows trends similar to EASM records in China. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the variability of the EASM during the mid- to late Holocene on the multi-decadal to centennial scale was forced by changes in both solar output and oceanic–atmospheric circulation interaction.

Qianlabeo striatus, a new genus and species of labeoninae from Guizhou Province, China (Teleostei: Cyprinidae)

Qianlabeo striatus gen. et sp. nov. is described from a stream tributary to the Beipan Jiang of the upper Zhu Jiang (Pearl River) drainage in Matou, Anshun County, Guizhou Province, China. This monotypic genus is mainly characterized by its oromadibular morphology, namely an upper lip only present in and fully adnate to the side of the upper jaw, not covered by the pendulous rostral fold; the median portion of the upper jaw lacking an upper lip but bearing a thin, flexible and cornified cutting edge that is fully covered by the pendulous rostral fold; a postlabial groove prolonged, extended anteromedially close to the anteromost point of the midline of the lower lip but not to meet with its counterpart. The type species of this genus, Q. striatus has a longitudinal dark stripe along the side of the body.

Diatom response to Asian monsoon variability during the Late Glacial to Holocene in a small treeline lake, SW China

Analyses of diatoms, grain size, magnetic susceptibility, total organic carbon, and total nitrogen were applied to a 9.26 m long sediment core, spanning the last 12.2 kyr, from a small treeline lake (Tiancai Lake, ~3898 m a.s.l.) in southwest China. Diatom assemblages are dominated by Cyclotella distinguenda, Aulacoseira species, and small fragilarioid taxa, all of which are sensitive to changes in water pH and light conditions that are probably related to vegetation development and runoff processes triggered by variations in the Asian monsoon. High abundances of C. distinguenda and Pseudostaurosira brevistriata reflected cold and dry climates during the Late Glacial (12.2–11.4 kyr BP). In the early Holocene (11.4–9.4 kyr BP), a steep decline in C. distinguenda and a visible increase in Aulacoseira alpigena responded to a strengthening monsoon intensity. The persistent increases in A. alpigena mirrored strong monsoon intensity in the middle Holocene (9.4–4.6 kyr BP). After 4.6 kyr BP, the reduction of A. alpigena was related to weak monsoon intensity in the late Holocene. The main trends of diatom evolution show a general correspondence to variations in solar insolation. Three visible excursions, with an increase in P. brevistriata and a drop in A. alpigena, centered at around 8.4, 2.5, and 0.3 kyr BP, correlate with low sunspot numbers and known cold events in the North Atlantic. Some similarities and correlations between the Holocene diatom data, the North Atlantic record, and solar insolation indicate that variations in the Asian monsoon response to changes in solar forcing and the North Atlantic climate.