Enrico Conte

A simplified method for predicting rainfall-induced mobility of active landslides

This paper deals with the landslides that are reactivated by a groundwater level increase owing to rainfall. These landslides are usually characterized by low displacement rate with deformations essentially concentrated within a narrow shear zone above which the unstable soil mass moves like a rigid body (i.e., with a horizontal displacement profile that is essentially constant with depth). In view of this evidence, a new method based on a simple sliding block model is proposed in the present study for a preliminary evaluation of landslide mobility. Unlike other existing methods that provide an evaluation of landslide mobility on the basis of groundwater level measurements, the present method directly relates landslide movements to rain recordings. This possibility constitutes a significant advantage from a practical viewpoint because it allows future displacement scenarios to be predicted from expected rainfall scenarios. In addition, the present method requires a limited number of parameters as input data, many of which can be obtained from conventional geotechnical tests. To evaluate the other parameters involved, an efficient calibration procedure is also proposed. Four case studies documented in the literature are analyzed to assess the capability of the present method to reproduce the main features of the slope response to rainfall. In all these case studies, both groundwater level variations and landslide displacements observed in field are well approximated by the method.

A finite element approach for the analysis of active slow-moving landslides

In the present paper, a finite element approach is proposed to analyse the mobility of active landslides which are controlled by groundwater fluctuations within the slope. These landslides are usually characterised by low displacement rates with deformations that are essentially concentrated within a narrow shear zone above which the unstable soil mass moves with deformations of no great concern. The proposed approach utilises an elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model in conjunction with a Mohr-Coulomb yield function to describe the behaviour of the soil in the shear zone. For the other soils involved by the landslide, an elastic model is used for the sake of simplicity. A significant advantage of the present method lies in the fact that few constitutive parameters are required as input data, the most of which can be readily obtained by conventional geotechnical tests. The rest of the required parameters should be calibrated on the basis of the available monitoring data concerning the change in the piezometric levels and the associated movements of the unstable soil mass. After being calibrated and validated, the proposed approach can be used to predict future landslide movements owing to expected groundwater fluctuations or to assess the effectiveness of drainage systems which are designed to control the landslide mobility. The method is applied to back-predict the observed field behaviour of three active slow-moving landslides documented in the literature.

Analysis of the Maierato landslide (Calabria, Southern Italy)

On 15 February 2010, a landslide of great dimensions occurred at Maierato (Calabria, Southern Italy) after a long rainy period. Although the zone was continuously affected by ground movements especially during the wet seasons, no monitoring system was installed before the occurrence of the landslide. However, many photos and two videos were taken during the failure process of the slope. In the present study, the available images are used to reconstruct the kinematics of the landslide. In addition, a finite element analysis is performed to define the main factors of triggering and to interpret the failure mechanism of the slope. This analysis is also based on the data from a site investigation carried out after the landslide to characterise the involved soils from a geotechnical viewpoint. The analysis also accounts for the strain-softening behaviour of some soils. The results have shown that the Maierato landslide was the reactivation of a pre-existing landslide body, which was caused by a significant increase in groundwater level.