Enrico Pennings

International relocation: firm and industry determinants

This article is the first to explore the determinants of international relocation of a firm. It is found that labour intensive firms in a highly industrialized and open economy such as Belgium tend to relocate more to other countries than their highly productive capital intensive counterparts. Access to a global network, firm size, and the rate of innovation have a positive effect on the probability of relocation. Uncertainty has a negative impact on the probability of relocation. The positive effect of firm size and profitability on the relocation decision is clearly distinct from its effect on the exit decision of a firm.

R&D as an Option on Market Introduction

Discounted cash flow methods for making R&D investment decisions cannot properly capture the option value in R&D. Since market and technology uncertainties change expectations about the viability of many new products, the value of projects is frequently adjusted during the R&D stages. Capturing the adjustment in expectations has an option value that may significantly differ from the Net Present Value of R&D projects. However, there are no historic time series for estimating the uncertainty of the value of R&D projects. As a result, the standard Black and Scholes model for financial option valuation needs to be adjusted. The aim of this paper is to report the application of a particular option pricing model for setting the budget of R&D projects. The option value of the model captures jumps or business shifts in market or technology conditions. The approach originates from applying current insight into the valuation of R&D projects to the field of multimedia research at Philips Corporate Research. This way, the gap between real option theory and R&D practice is further diminished.

The option value of advanced R & D

Existing tools for making R&D investment decisions cannot properly capture the option value in R&D. Since many new products are identified as failures during the R&D stages, the possibility of refraining from market introduction may add a significant value to the NPV of the R&D project. This paper presents new theoretical insight by developing a stochastic jump amplitude model in a real setting. The option value of the proposed model depends on the expected number of jumps and the expected size of the jumps in a particular business. The model is verified with empirical knowledge of current research in the field of multimedia at Philips Corporate Research. This way, the gap between real option theory and the practice of decision making with respect to investments in R&D is diminished.

Tariffs, Licensing and Market Structure

This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that exclusive owners of an advanced technology are always better off when producing as a monopolist than when competing against another firm. Competition against a less efficient firm weakens the power that a host country can exert on the incumbent in the form of its tariff policy. We show that this gives a motive for a monopolist to license its technology to another foreign firm. A host country gains more from increased competition if it can induce the foreign incumbent to transfer technology to the host country firm. We show that the host country can do so by tariff commitment.

Taxes and stimuli of investment under uncertainty

This article considers the effect on an irreversible investment of a subsidy to investment in combination with a taxation of future profits. It is shown that such a combination raising a zero expected revenue decreases the trigger value of investment. The tax rate for which the stimulus works at zero expected cost decreases as heterogeneity in the group of investors increases. The importance of the result is exemplified by the graduate tax.

Evaluating pharmaceutical R&D under technical and economic uncertainty

This study sets up a compound option approach for evaluating pharmaceutical R&D investment projects in the presence of technical and economic uncertainties. Technical uncertainty is modeled as a Poisson jump that allows for failure and thus abandonment of the drug development. Economic uncertainty is modeled as a standard diffusion process which incorporates both up-and downward shocks. Practical application of this method is emphasized through a case analysis. We show that both uncertainties have a positive impact on the R&D option value. Moreover, from the sensitivity analysis, we find that the sensitivity of the option with respect to economic uncertainty and market introduction cost decreases when technical uncertainty increases.

Imitation, Patent Protection and Welfare

Once a new technology has been invented, there is a credible threat of imitation when patents are long and imitation cost is low. When imitation is credible, the innovator has an incentive to postpone technology adoption for relatively high cost of imitation. The possibility of licensing eliminates or at least reduces the incentive for delayed technology adoption and may increase or decrease social welfare. Further, this paper explains the advantages of two types of licensing contracts, viz. a forward contract on licensing and a simple licensing contract. We show the implications of the availability of the licensing contracts on social welfare and optimal patent protection.

Market entry, phased rollout or abandonment? A real option approach

This paper proposes a model to value a phased rollout, and to determine the optimal time of a phased rollout as well as the optimal rollout area. Since a phased rollout of new products can be considered as an option on a worldwide launch, real option theory is applied to enhance decision making about entry strategy. We derive the analytical properties and illustrate the model with a case on phasing the rollout of CD-I at Philips Electronics. Under the assumptions made, we found that the value of a phased rollout strategy mainly depends on market and technology uncertainty and the expected net present value of the investment. The maximum value of phasing the rollout of CD-I was nearly 23% of the investment cost.

INTERNATIONAL RELOCATION OF PRODUCTION: WHERE DO FIRMS GO?

The flexible relocation of capacity across countries by multinational enterprises has become an important source of concern. Using a unique sample of relocating firms in Belgium, we find that wages and market potential of host regions are important determinants for the location choice. Considering firm characteristics, we show that large firms have a higher propensity to relocate to remote countries. Public aid only plays a decisive role in the investment decision for relocations to adjacent countries, suggesting a potential harmful role in distorting competition. More proactive policies in line with changing comparative location advantages should be implemented to accommodate relocations.

Finance and strategy: Time-to-wait or time-to-market?

Determining the optimal time to enter a market for technology-based products is paramount for the profitability and competitive position of an industrial company. Finance theory and strategic marketing theory seem to differ fundamentally in the answer to the question of how to determine the optimal timing of an investment. Finance theory focuses on the value of waiting to invest, whilst strategic marketing theory stresses early market entry in order to leapfrog competition and gain competitive advantage. We discuss both points of view and synthesize different approaches in order to develop an optimal timing framework for market entry for product innovations. Recent literature on investment under uncertainty, which suggests that a company should invest when the value of a project passes a certain threshold, forms the basis of our attempt to integrate finance and strategic marketing theory.