Enrique Gaxiola

European scenario synthesis to be used for electricity transmission network planning

The EU research project IRENE-40 aims at the development of a roadmap for the European and Pan-European transmission networks for the next 40 years (until 2050). In addition to the know-how which technologies can be applied to solve transmission problems in the near and far future, an evaluation of the future generation and load scenarios is necessary. For this purpose five scenarios have been developed: BUSINESS AS USUAL (BAU) - RENEWABLE (RES) - DESERTEC (DES) - CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (CCS) - HIGH EFFICIENCY (EFFICIENCY). In these demand-and generation scenarios the share of renewable, the penetration of Carbon Capture and Storage and the level of electricity demand vary widely. The reasoning behind the choices in the main parameters for these scenarios are discussed. The wide range in some of the major scenario assumptions cause substantially different circumstances for future grid expansion, Especially the share of solar PV and wind in future generation is a crucial parameter influencing the demand for long-distance transmission at a European scale. A comparison is made with some other recent scenario and roadmap studies with a 2050 horizon.

Transmission infrastructure investment requirements in the future European low-carbon electricity system

This paper presents case studies projecting European cross-border electricity transmission infrastructure requirements for a range of future European electricity system scenarios. In calculating the requirements and to attain to the least cost solution, we use a Dynamic System Investment Model. The optimization model minimizes the total investment and operating costs taking into account: (i) the coordination needed between generation and transmission investment; (ii) the need to maintain reliability and feasibility of system operation; and (iii) the applications of load control technology. The model has been used to quantify the transmission requirements for five different European future generation and demand scenarios developed in the “Infrastructure Roadmap for Energy Networks in Europe”, IRENE-40, FP7 project. These include Business-as-Usual, Renewable, DESERTEC, CCS, and the High Efficiency pathways. This paper also presents a discussion on the plausible network technologies to fulfill the requirements and the potential benefits of demand side management in reducing the capacity requirements.

Impact of different balancing zones on the capacity market design in Europe towards 2050

As the concept of capacity market is currently under heavy discussion within the European context, only a few European countries have reached the implementation phase of the capacity market. Significant research efforts have been made to identify the origin, design challenges as well as the underlying framework of capacity markets. This paper evaluates the capacity market in the European context, proposes a method for quantifying the analysis, and provide a set of capacity market framework recommendations to the stakeholders, such as policy makers and market participants among others. This paper proposes four balancing variants within the EU context (EU 27 + Norway, Switzerland), a) Each country performs its own energy balancing, b) Seven balancing zones, c) Three balancing zones and d) Single balancing zone. All four variants are subject to the five generation/demand scenarios that have been developed within the IRENE-40 project, namely Conventional Power scenario - Business as usual (BAU), Carbon Capture and Storage scenario (CCS), Desertec scenario (DES), Renewable scenario (RES) and High Efficiency scenario (EFF). Following market simulations, policy recommendations are laid out for the future direction of the European capacity market design.