Enrique Martínez-García

The balance sheet channel

In this paper, we study the role of the credit channel of monetary policy in the context of a DSGE model. Through the use of a regulated banking sector subject to a regulatory capital constraint on lending, we provide alternative interpretations that can potentially explain differences in the implementation of monetary policy without appealing to ad-hoc central bank preferences. This is accomplished through the characterization of the external finance premium as a function of bank leverage and systemic aggregate risk.

The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Does Investment Matter?

This paper re-examines the ability of sticky-price models to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates. We use a DSGE framework with pricing-to-market akin to those in Chari, et al. (2002) and Steinsson (2008) to illustrate the link between real exchange rate dynamics and what the model assumes about physical capital. We show that adding capital accumulation to the model facilitates consumption smoothing and significantly impedes the models ability to generate volatile real exchange rates. Our analysis, therefore, caveats the results in Steinsson (2008) who shows how real shocks in a sticky-price model without capital can replicate the observed real exchange rate dynamics. Finally, we find that the CKM (2002) persistence anomaly remains robust to several alternative capital specifications including set-ups with variable capital utilization and investment adjustment costs (see, e.g., Christiano, et al., 2005). In summary, the PPP puzzle is still very much alive and well.

A New Database of Global Economic Indicators

The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas aims to standardize and disseminate economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization. Its main purpose is to offer a broad perspective on a number of global factors affecting the U.S. economy. DGEI indicators are based on a core sample of 40 countries with aggregates for the rest of the world (ex. the U.S.) and by level of development attainment and openness to trade. DGEI indicators currently include real GDP, industrial production (IP), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), merchandise exports and imports, headline CPI, core CPI (ex. food and energy), PPI/WPI inflation, nominal and real exchange rates, and short-term interest rates. Here we describe our methodology to transform and combine different time series, for temporal and cross-country aggregation, and to highlight the importance of using representative data in international macroeconomics research. Our paper makes a related contribution to the literature by providing a formal assessment of conventional interpolation methods used to adjust the data frequency. A selection of the DGEI-derived global indicators – to be updated monthly – can be accessed at the following URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/institute/dgei/index.cfm.

Bayesian Estimation of NOEM Models: Identification and Inference in Small Samples

This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these relationships in the context of a fully specified structural model using Bayesian estimation techniques. We trace the problems to sample size, rather than misspecification bias. We conclude that standard macroeconomic time series with a coverage of less than forty years are subject to potentially serious identification issues, and also to model selection errors. We recommend estimation with simulated data prior to bringing the model to the actual data as a way of detecting parameters that are susceptible to weak identification in short samples.

Investment and Trade Patterns in a Sticky-Price, Open-Economy Model

This paper develops a tractable two-country DSGE model with sticky prices a la Calvo (1983) and local-currency pricing. We analyze the capital investment decision in the presence of adjustment costs of two types, the capital adjustment cost (CAC) specification and the investment adjustment cost (IAC) specification. We compare the investment and trade patterns with adjustment costs against those of a model without adjustment costs and with (quasi-) flexible prices. We show that having adjustment costs results into more volatile consumption and net exports, and less volatile investment. We document three important facts on U.S. trade: a) the S-shaped cross-correlation function between real GDP and the real net exports share, b) the J-curve between terms of trade and net exports, and c) the weak and S-shaped cross-correlation between real GDP and terms of trade. We find that adding adjustment costs tends to reduce the models ability to match these stylized facts. Nominal rigidities cannot account for these features either.

A Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate with Informational Frictions

Data for the U.S. and the Euro-area during the post-Bretton Woods period shows that nominal and real exchange rates are more volatile than consumption, very persistent, and highly correlated with each other. Standard models with nominal rigidities match reasonably well the volatility and persistence of the nominal exchange rate, but require an average contract duration above 4 quarters to approximate the real exchange rate counterparts. I propose a two-country model with financial intermediaries and argue that: First, sticky and asymmetric information introduces a lag in the consumption response to currently unobservable shocks, mostly foreign. Accordingly, the real exchange rate becomes more volatile to induce enough expenditure-switching across countries for all markets to clear. Second, differences in the degree of price stickiness across markets and firms weaken the correlation between the nominal exchange rate and the relative CPI price. This correlation is important to match the moments of the real exchange rate. The model suggests that asymmetric information and differences in price stickiness account better for the stylized facts without relying on an average contract duration for the U.S. larger than the current empirical estimates.

Monitoring Housing Markets for Episodes of Exuberance: An Application of the Phillips Et Al. (2012, 2013) GSADF Test on the Dallas Fed International House Price Database

The detection of explosive behavior in house prices and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of great importance for policy-making. This paper applies the GSADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2012) and Phillips et al. (2013), a novel procedure for testing, detection and date-stamping of explosive behavior, to the data from the Dallas Fed International House Price Database documented in Mack and Martinez-Garcia (2011). We discuss the use of the GSADF test to monitor international housing markets. We assess the international boom and bust cycle experienced during the past 15 years through this lens — with special attention to the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain. Our empirical results suggest that these three countries experienced a period of exuberance in housing prices during the late 90s and the first half of the 2000s that cannot be attributed solely to the behavior of fundamentals. Looking at all 22 countries covered in the International House Price Database, we detect a pattern of synchronized explosive behavior during the last international house boom-bust episode not seen before.

U.S. Business Cycles, Monetary Policy and the External Finance Premium

I investigate a model of the U.S. economy with nominal rigidities and a financial accelerator mechanism a la Bernanke et al. (Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1, Elsevier Sci., Chap. 21, pp. 1341–1393, 1999). I calculate total factor productivity (TFP) and monetary policy deviations for the U.S. and quantitatively explore the ability of the model to account for the cyclical patterns of U.S. per capita real private GDP (excluding government), U.S. per capita real private investment, U.S. per capita real private consumption, the share of hours worked per capita, (year-over-year) inflation and the quarterly interest rate spread between the Baa corporate bond yield and the 20-year Treasury bill rate during the Great Moderation. I show that the magnitude and cyclicality of the external finance premium depend nonlinearly on the degree of price stickiness (or lack thereof) in the Bernanke et al. (Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1, Elsevier Sci., Chap. 21, pp. 1341–1393, 1999) model and on the specification of both the target Taylor (Carnegie-Rochester Conf. Ser. Pub. Policy 39:195–214, 1993) rate for policy and the exogenous monetary shock process. The strong countercyclicality of the external finance premium (the interest rate spread) induces substitution away from consumption and into investment in periods where output grows above its long-run trend as the premium tends to fall below its steady state and financing investment becomes temporarily “cheaper”. The less frequently prices change in this environment, the more accentuated the fluctuations of the external finance premium are and the more dominant they become on the dynamics of investment, hours worked and output. However, these features—the countercyclicality and large volatility of the spread—are counterfactual and appear to be a key impediment limiting the ability of the model to account for the U.S. data over the Great Moderation period.

Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound

Using a panel of survey‐based measures of future interest rates from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study the dynamic relationship between shocks to monetary policy expectations and fluctuations in economic activity and inflation. We propose a smallscale structured recursive vector autoregression (VAR) model to identify the macroeconomic effects of changes in expectations about monetary policy. Our results show that when interest rates are away from the zero‐lower bound, a perception of higher future interest rates leads to a significant rise in current measures of inflation and a rise in economic activity. However, when interest rates approach zero, the effect on economic activity is the opposite, with significant but lagged decreases in economic activity following an upward revision to expected future interest rates. The impact of changes in expectations about monetary policy is robust when we control for other features of the transmission mechanism (e.g., long‐term interest rates, quantitative easing, exchange rate movements and even oil price shocks). Our findings also show that monetary policy expectations contribute up to 34 percent to the variability of economic activity (and 24 percent on inflation) while policy rates are fixed at the zero‐lower bound. This evidence points to the importance of managing monetary policy expectations (forward guidance) as a crucial policy tool for stimulating economic activity at the zero‐lower bound.

Explosive Dynamics in House Prices? An Exploration of Financial Market Spillovers in Housing Markets Around the World

Asset prices in general, and real house prices in particular, are often characterized by a nonlinear data-generating process which displays mildly explosive behavior in some periods. Here, we investigate the emergence of explosiveness in the dynamics of real house prices and the role played by asset market spillovers. We establish a timeline of periodically-collapsing episodes of explosiveness for a panel of 23 countries from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ International House Price Database (Mack and MartÃnez-GarcÃa (2011)) between first quarter 1975 and fourth quarter 2015 using the recursive unit root test methodology proposed by Phillips et al. (2015a,b). Motivated by the theory of financial arbitrage, we examine within a dynamic panel logit/probit framework whether macro fundamentalsâ€�?and, more specifically, financial variablesâ€�?help predict episodes of explosiveness in real house prices. We find that interest rate spreads and real stock market growth together with standard macro variables (growth in personal disposable income per capita and inflation) are amongst the best predictors. We, therefore, argue that financial developments in other asset markets play a significant role in the emergence of explosiveness in housing markets.