Enrique Martínez-Meyer

Protected area needs in a changing climate

Range shifts due to climate change may cause species to move out of protected areas. Climate change could therefore result in species range dynamics that reduce the relevance of current fixed protected areas in future conservation strategies. Here, we apply species distribution modeling and conservation planning tools in three regions (Mexico, the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, and Western Europe) to examine the need for additional protected areas in light of anticipated species range shifts caused by climate change. We set species representation targets and assessed the area required to meet those targets in the present and in the future, under a moderate climate change scenario. Our findings indicate that protected areas can be an important conservation strategy in such a scenario, and that early action may be both more effective and less costly than inaction or delayed action. According to our projections, costs may vary among regions and none of the three areas studied will fully meet all conservation targets, even under a moderate climate change scenario. This suggests that limiting climate change is an essential complement to adding protected areas for conservation of biodiversity.

Predicting distributions of known and unknown reptile species in Madagascar

Despite the importance of tropical biodiversity, informative species distributional data are seldom available for biogeographical study or setting conservation priorities. Modelling ecological niche distributions of species offers a potential soluion; however, the utility of old locality data from museums, and of more recent remotely sensed satellite data, remains poorly explored, especially for rapidly changing tropical landscapes. Using 29 modern data sets of environmental land coverage and 621 chameleon occurrence localities from Madagascar (historical and recent), here we demonstrate a significant ability of our niche models in predicting species distribution. At 11 recently inventoried sites, highest predictive success (85.1%) was obtained for models based only on modern occurrence data (74.7% and 82.8% predictive success, respectively, for pre-1978 and all data combined). Notably, these models also identified three intersecting areas of over-prediction that recently yielded seven chameleon species new to science. We conclude that ecological niche modelling using recent locality records and readily available environmental coverage data provides informative biogeographical data for poorly known tropical landscapes, and offers innovative potential for the discovery of unknown distributional areas and unknown species.

Modeling species’ geographic distributions for preliminary conservation assessments: an implementation with the spiny pocket mice (Heteromys) of Ecuador

GIS-based modeling of a species’ environmental requirements using known occurrence records can provide estimates of its distribution for conservation assessments when other data are lacking. We used collection records, environmental variables, maps of land cover and protected areas, and the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP) to estimate the historical, current, and protected ranges of the spiny pocket mice present in Ecuador (Heteromys australis and H. teleus). The results suggest that ca. 52– 63% of the distributional areas of H. australis in the country are intact, but suitable habitat in protected areas represents only approximately 11–13% of the species’ historical range there. The distribution of H. teleus has been much more reduced, with only ca. 13–19% of its historical distribution still forested and an estimated 2–3% intact and falling in protected areas. Our work highlights critical areas for future fieldwork and demonstrates an integrated approach to estimating a species’ current distribution for preliminary conservation assessments. # 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylogeographic Analyses and Paleodistribution Modeling Indicate Pleistocene In Situ Survival of Hordeum Species (Poaceae) in Southern Patagonia without Genetic or Spatial Restriction

Although many phylogeographic studies have been conducted to analyze the impact of the ice age on species history of Northern Hemisphere mountain plants, such studies are nearly absent for plants of the Southern Hemisphere, particularly for lowland vegetation units. These species should have been primarily influenced by climate cooling and changes in precipitation regime instead of glaciers covering their distribution areas. It is thought that New World lowland species generally evaded climate changes by equatorial migration during Pleistocene cold cycles and recolonized their habitats at higher latitudes when climate warmed up again. In contrast to Eurasia, latitudinal orientation of the major mountain ranges in the Americas made these migrations easily possible. In the huge steppe of the Patagonian plains and adjacent Andes of southern South America thrives a group of three sympatrically distributed diploid species of the barley genus Hordeum, which originated during the last 1.3 million years (My) from a common progenitor. To get insights into the speciation mode of the taxa and to test the hypothesis of longitudinal migration of steppe vegetation during the Pleistocene, we conducted population genetic and phylogeographic analyses based on sequences of the chloroplast trnL-F region from 922 individuals. We found a high number of chloroplast haplotypes shared among species, which indicate speciation through vicariance events. Analysis of the distribution of genetic diversity within and among species inferred an origin of Hordeum comosum in the Central Argentine Andes, whereas Hordeum patagonicum and Hordeum pubiflorum originated in southern Patagonia. The extant occurrence of H. comosum in southern Patagonia and H. pubiflorum northward along the Argentine Andes was caused by reciprocal migration after the origin of the species. Surprisingly, molecular data provided no evidence for range shifts toward the north during the last glacial maximum and recolonization of southerly habitats afterward, but indicated in situ survival of large populations of Hordeum species within their extant distribution ranges even in southernmost Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego. Ecoclimatic niche modeling used to reconstruct the potential paleodistribution areas of the species during the last glacial maximum shows that climate conditions were sufficient for the species to survive Pleistocene cold cycles in Patagonia without significant geographic restrictions. Molecular data together with ecological niche modeling indicate stable geographic distribution areas in two of the three species for at least the Holocene. As the Hordeum species are characteristic taxa of different steppe habitats, we speculate that the Patagonian steppe might be an old vegetation unit occurring for up to 4.5 My in southern South America.

SEASONAL NICHES OF NEARCTIC-NEOTROPICAL MIGRATORY BIRDS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF MIGRATION

THE EVOLUTION OF avian migratory systems has been of intense interest to ornithologists (Gauthreaux 1982; Berthold 1988, 1993; Levey and Stiles 1992; Rappole 1995; Chesser and Levey 1998). The consensus is that a sedentary ancestor began to move seasonally, within an ancestral distribution, in response to some influence-either a push (e.g. poor conditions on the ancestral distribution) or a pull (e.g. better conditions elsewhere) -and that local tracking eventually extended to long-distance, predictable movements (Berthold 1993, Rappole 1995). One particularly well-developed hypothesis is that local movements of tropical bird species tracking variable or uncertain resources (either food or space for breeding) evolved into regular seasonal and longer distance movements. That line of thought, originally based on NearcticNeotropical migrants (Levey and Stiles 1992, Rappole 1995), has been partially supported in an independent system, the austral migrants in South America (Chesser and Levey 1998). New perspectives on the evolution of migration may prove useful (Zink 2002). A question that has not received sufficient attention is the degree to which a species is tracking a single set of conditions year-round-as opposed to changing from one ecological regime to another. Seasonal differences in habitat use by migratory birds are well known (see reviews in Keast and Morton 1980, Hagan and Johnston 1995).

Ecological niche modelling and prioritizing areas for species reintroductions

Species reintroduction programmes, in prior- itizing areas for reintroductions, have traditionally used tools that include measures of habitat suitability and evaluations of area requirements for viable populations. Here we add two tools to this approach: evaluation of ecological requirements of species and evaluation of future suitability for species facing changing climates. We demonstrate this approach with two species for which reintroduction programmes are in the planning stages in Mexico: California condor Gymnogyps califor- nianus and Mexican wolf Canis lupus baileyi. For the condor, we identify three areas clustered in the Sierra San Pedro Martir, Baja California; for the wolf, we identify a string of suitable sites along the Sierra Madre Occidental of western Mexico. We discuss the limita- tions of this approach, identifying ways in which the models illustrated could be made more realistic and directly useful to reintroduction programmes.

Evolution of seasonal ecological niches in the Passerina buntings (Aves : Cardinalidae)

The evolution of migration has long been considered complex and recent work has demonstrated additional complexity: some species follow the same ecological conditions throughout the year, whereas others ‘switch niches’ between breeding and wintering ranges. Hypotheses regarding the evolution of migration would generally predict niche–following as primitive, and niche–switching as derived. However, no test has, to our knowledge, yet determined the directionality of evolution of these states within a lineage. We present an analysis of phylogenetic dimensions of seasonal niches in the Passerina buntings that indicates greater evolutionary change in the niches of breeding populations than among those of wintering populations. These results are consistent with hypotheses of (i) niche conservatism (in winter, at least) across a recently speciated lineage; and (ii) the derived state of the breeding (rather than winter) ecological niches of each species.

Inferences from the Historical Distribution of Wild and Domesticated Maize Provide Ecological and Evolutionary Insight

Background The species Zea mays includes both domesticated maize (ssp. mays) and its closest wild relatives known as the teosintes. While genetic and archaeological studies have provided a well-established history of Z. mays evolution, there is currently minimal description of its current and past distribution. Here, we implemented species distribution modeling using paleoclimatic models of the last interglacial (LI; ∼135,000 BP) and the last glacial maximum (LGM; ∼21,000 BP) to hindcast the distribution of Zea mays subspecies over time and to revisit current knowledge of its phylogeography and evolutionary history. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a large occurrence data set and the distribution modeling MaxEnt algorithm, we obtained robust present and past species distributions of the two widely distributed teosinte subspecies (ssps. parviglumis and mexicana) revealing almost perfect complementarity, stable through time, of their occupied distributions. We also investigated the present distributions of primitive maize landraces, which overlapped but were broader than those of the teosintes. Our data reinforced the idea that little historical gene flow has occurred between teosinte subspecies, but maize has served as a genetic bridge between them. We observed an expansion of teosinte habitat from the LI, consistent with population genetic data. Finally, we identified locations potentially serving as refugia for the teosintes throughout epochs of climate change and sites that should be targeted in future collections. Conclusion/Significance The restricted and highly contrasting ecological niches of the wild teosintes differ substantially from domesticated maize. Variables determining the distributions of these taxa can inform future considerations of local adaptation and the impacts of climate change. Our assessment of the changing distributions of Zea mays taxa over time offers a unique glimpse into the history of maize, highlighting a strategy for the study of domestication that may prove useful for other species.

Current Knowledge of Leishmania Vectors in Mexico: How Geographic Distributions of Species Relate to Transmission Areas

Leishmaniases are a group of vector-borne diseases with different clinical manifestations caused by parasites transmitted by sand fly vectors. In Mexico, the sand fly Lutzomyia olmeca olmeca is the only vector proven to transmit the parasite Leishmania mexicana to humans, which causes leishmaniasis. Other vector species with potential medical importance have been obtained, but their geographic distributions and relation to transmission areas have never been assessed. We modeled the ecological niches of nine sand fly species and projected niches to estimate potential distributions by using known occurrences, environmental coverages, and the algorithms GARP and Maxent. All vector species were distributed in areas with known recurrent transmission, except for Lu. diabolica, which appeared to be related only to areas of occasional transmission in northern Mexico. The distribution of Lu. o. olmeca does not overlap with all reported cutaneous leishmaniasis cases, suggesting that Lu. cruciata and Lu. shannoni are likely also involved as primary vectors in those areas. Our study provides useful information of potential risk areas of leishmaniasis transmission in Mexico.

West Nile virus in the New World: potential impacts on bird species

Summary The past five years have seen the arrival and extremely rapid expansion of West Nile virus (WNV) in the Western Hemisphere. The rapid sweep across North America has permitted little time for developing knowledge of the virus’s potential impacts on wildlife in the New World. Given this information gap, we here summarize for the ornithological community what is known or can be anticipated for WNV’s effect on bird communities in coming years. Our particular focus is on impacts of WNV on the conservation status of birds, the principal vertebrate reservoir for the virus. Origins West Nile virus (WNV) was first isolated in Uganda in 1937, and was subsequently documented as a relatively benign arbovirus across much of Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe (Hubalek and Halouzka 1999). It was viewed as a cause of mild febrile illness in humans, with no apparent negative effect on birds. WNV nevertheless caused several major human disease outbreaks, for example in South Africa in 1974 and Algeria in 1994. WNV was not fully appreciated as a serious human health concern, however, until the encephalitis outbreaks in Romania in 1996–1997, which involved hundreds of human clinical cases and a 9% case-fatality rate. Other recent outbreaks have seemed to come at shorter intervals, and with more severe effects, both on humans and on birds, suggesting to some the possible evolution of a new, more virulent strain (Petersen and Roehrig 2001).